The GQ Approach – Laurel August 19

by | Aug 19, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $18,072
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Lone Mount - Depending on how many mounts a jockey typically gets on a given day, if a jock only has one mount, especially towards the end of the day, that horse warrants a second look.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3/ #11 – Rag Top (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#6 – Drosselmoon (15-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 11 w/ 1, 2, 3 w/ 3, 5, 8 ($4.50)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 1, 5, 10 w/ 6, 7, 11 ($18.00)
  • And don’t forget: mandatory payouts of all bets today, including the Rainbow 6, which has a carryover of $18.072.

Analysis

  • Weather: Afternoon showers, highs near 80
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 — Bodega Bay (7-2): Farrior trainee makes third start off a layoff after solid try vs. similar over yielding ground
  2. #10 — Capucine (5-2): Clearly fits here and has best figs, but demonstrated lack of interest in, ya know, winning races makes her hard to endorse on top
  3. #4 – Flashndynamite (6-1): Showed late interest last out in first try sprinting

Race 2

  1. #2 – Missin Maggie (6-1): Somebody has to win here, right? Veteran mare is one of only two here with a prior win at 6f trip
  2. #3 – Southern Peach (5-2): Ran competitively at this level last out
  3. #4 – Gimme Kimmy (9-5): Certainly a contender here but tough to take short odds given poor last outing and unsightly 0-for-9 ledger at the trip

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. ***BEST BET #11 – Rag Top (7-2) ***: Major, major class relief from prior turf tries vs. MSW foes at BEL, SA
  2. #4 – Jacobella (4-1): Closer drops down a level after acceptable tries
  3. #8 – Here and Now (12-1): First try in 7 weeks; last might be better than it looks after trouble line and like to see Prado remain aboard

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Scout’s Honor (4-5): Formful Magee trainee loves this trip (ITM in six of seven)
  2. #3 – Private Tutor (20-1): Makes third start off a layoff and bested similar three back
  3. #1/1a – Starship Thor/Bobcat (8-5): Two who fit here for the price of one!

Race 5

  1. #8 – Ellanation (5-2): $160,000 Alternation filly enters career debut with some solid works under her belt
  2. #5 – That’sthewaytodoit (5-1): Shows three works since acceptable 7/13 debut when third
  3. #3 – Little Miss Raelyn (3-1): Folks dropped a lot of money — $135k — for a Super Ninety Nine filly; this miss has been working well for a barn that can win first out of the box

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. ***LONGSHOT PLAY #6 – Drosselmoon (15-1) ***: Sire’s two signature wins came at 1 1/4 miles and 1 1/2 miles, so you gotta believe this guy will love the added ground after a useful debut sprinting
  2. #2 – Scaramucci (8-5): With third start here, will surpass longevity of namesake’s political career; useful debut sprinting and sire Flatter says added ground should play to his strength
  3. #8 – Unnamed Soldier (6-1): Even effort in debut was seriously flattered when winner Chattel won a stake at SAR in follow-up; added ground a positive
  4. We don’t typically add a horse for fourth and since trainer Michael Dickinson is 0-for-21 with debut runners (and only seven in the money), it’s hard to endorse these on top, but his 1/1a entry of The Keeper and Dob Dob offers two seriously well-bred sons of Temple City, the former a half-brother to Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner Big Brown.

Race 7

  1. #4 – Holiday Magician (4-5): Repeat of last two starts — first two of the year — would likely get this Mary Eppler trainee the money here
  2. #5 – Cherokee Fire (5-1): Gave improved account of himself in last and makes third start off a layoff here
  3. #6 – Sharon’s Thunder (3-1): Closing sort ran fine when third vs. 5k sorts last out

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Marie from Parie (9-2): Can this miss repeat here? Mais oui! Eppler trainee never worse than third at the trip and makes her second start off a six-month break
  2. #5 – Whyyouask (6-5): Orientate filly should appreciate getting back on the lawn – but we’re wondering why trainer Farrior doesn’t give her at least one crack at the N1X sprinting on the grass
  3. #2 – No Great Shakes (12-1): Folks who named this one believed in truth in labeling; infrequent winner ran second vs. similar over the strip four back

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Do What I Say (6-1): Competed vs. similar back in May
  2. #10 – Fly (3-1): Schoenthal trainee ran fourth vs. similar two back, and the two just ahead of him took this condition down next out
  3. #5 – Elusive Joni (7-2): Last couple turf tries put her right there, and she’s won this condition already

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – I Ain’t Never (8-1): Not sure what he beat in maiden-breaker last out but he did it with style; lightbulb theory in play
  2. #6 – City Gold (3-1): Winless record on the turf makes this one a bit of a tough sell, but last time on the lawn was a good one at long odds
  3. #11 — Kid Jeter (5-2): First off the claim for trainer Mark Reid and note sharp work 8/8 in preparation
Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, August 18 at Laurel had 7 winners from the 12-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 289 for 1015 (28.47%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $3.60
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $6.60
    • R7: $7.80
    • R8: $5.40
    • R9: $3.20
    • R10: xxx
    • R11: $4.40
    • R12: $7.60
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, did not hit any.
  • BEST BET of the Day (102: 28-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) She’s Achance Too (11th race: 9-5 M/L; 1.30-1 PT) stalked the pace two wide, moved to command nearing the stretch, and went on to win by two lengths, returning $4.60 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE, and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (99:16-20-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Tap the Moment (5th race: 15-1 M/L; 8.10-1 PT) was not a factor, finishing ninth while beaten by 5 3/4 lengths.

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