The GQ Approach – Laurel August 19

by Aug 19, 2018Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $18,072
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none[/su_box]

[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]

[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 3/ #11 – Rag Top (7-2)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 6 /#6 – Drosselmoon (15-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 11 w/ 1, 2, 3 w/ 3, 5, 8 ($4.50)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 1, 5, 10 w/ 6, 7, 11 ($18.00)
  • And don’t forget: mandatory payouts of all bets today, including the Rainbow 6, which has a carryover of $18.072.

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Afternoon showers, highs near 80
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 — Bodega Bay (7-2): Farrior trainee makes third start off a layoff after solid try vs. similar over yielding ground
  2. #10 — Capucine (5-2): Clearly fits here and has best figs, but demonstrated lack of interest in, ya know, winning races makes her hard to endorse on top
  3. #4 – Flashndynamite (6-1): Showed late interest last out in first try sprinting

Race 2

  1. #2 – Missin Maggie (6-1): Somebody has to win here, right? Veteran mare is one of only two here with a prior win at 6f trip
  2. #3 – Southern Peach (5-2): Ran competitively at this level last out
  3. #4 – Gimme Kimmy (9-5): Certainly a contender here but tough to take short odds given poor last outing and unsightly 0-for-9 ledger at the trip

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. ***BEST BET #11 – Rag Top (7-2) ***: Major, major class relief from prior turf tries vs. MSW foes at BEL, SA
  2. #4 – Jacobella (4-1): Closer drops down a level after acceptable tries
  3. #8 – Here and Now (12-1): First try in 7 weeks; last might be better than it looks after trouble line and like to see Prado remain aboard

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Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Scout’s Honor (4-5): Formful Magee trainee loves this trip (ITM in six of seven)
  2. #3 – Private Tutor (20-1): Makes third start off a layoff and bested similar three back
  3. #1/1a – Starship Thor/Bobcat (8-5): Two who fit here for the price of one!

Race 5

  1. #8 – Ellanation (5-2): $160,000 Alternation filly enters career debut with some solid works under her belt
  2. #5 – That’sthewaytodoit (5-1): Shows three works since acceptable 7/13 debut when third
  3. #3 – Little Miss Raelyn (3-1): Folks dropped a lot of money — $135k — for a Super Ninety Nine filly; this miss has been working well for a barn that can win first out of the box

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. ***LONGSHOT PLAY #6 – Drosselmoon (15-1) ***: Sire’s two signature wins came at 1 1/4 miles and 1 1/2 miles, so you gotta believe this guy will love the added ground after a useful debut sprinting
  2. #2 – Scaramucci (8-5): With third start here, will surpass longevity of namesake’s political career; useful debut sprinting and sire Flatter says added ground should play to his strength
  3. #8 – Unnamed Soldier (6-1): Even effort in debut was seriously flattered when winner Chattel won a stake at SAR in follow-up; added ground a positive
  4. We don’t typically add a horse for fourth and since trainer Michael Dickinson is 0-for-21 with debut runners (and only seven in the money), it’s hard to endorse these on top, but his 1/1a entry of The Keeper and Dob Dob offers two seriously well-bred sons of Temple City, the former a half-brother to Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner Big Brown.

Race 7

  1. #4 – Holiday Magician (4-5): Repeat of last two starts — first two of the year — would likely get this Mary Eppler trainee the money here
  2. #5 – Cherokee Fire (5-1): Gave improved account of himself in last and makes third start off a layoff here
  3. #6 – Sharon’s Thunder (3-1): Closing sort ran fine when third vs. 5k sorts last out

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Marie from Parie (9-2): Can this miss repeat here? Mais oui! Eppler trainee never worse than third at the trip and makes her second start off a six-month break
  2. #5 – Whyyouask (6-5): Orientate filly should appreciate getting back on the lawn – but we’re wondering why trainer Farrior doesn’t give her at least one crack at the N1X sprinting on the grass
  3. #2 – No Great Shakes (12-1): Folks who named this one believed in truth in labeling; infrequent winner ran second vs. similar over the strip four back

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Do What I Say (6-1): Competed vs. similar back in May
  2. #10 – Fly (3-1): Schoenthal trainee ran fourth vs. similar two back, and the two just ahead of him took this condition down next out
  3. #5 – Elusive Joni (7-2): Last couple turf tries put her right there, and she’s won this condition already

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – I Ain’t Never (8-1): Not sure what he beat in maiden-breaker last out but he did it with style; lightbulb theory in play
  2. #6 – City Gold (3-1): Winless record on the turf makes this one a bit of a tough sell, but last time on the lawn was a good one at long odds
  3. #11 — Kid Jeter (5-2): First off the claim for trainer Mark Reid and note sharp work 8/8 in preparation
Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, August 18 at Laurel had 7 winners from the 12-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 289 for 1015 (28.47%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $3.60
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $6.60
    • R7: $7.80
    • R8: $5.40
    • R9: $3.20
    • R10: xxx
    • R11: $4.40
    • R12: $7.60
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, did not hit any.
  • BEST BET of the Day (102: 28-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) She’s Achance Too (11th race: 9-5 M/L; 1.30-1 PT) stalked the pace two wide, moved to command nearing the stretch, and went on to win by two lengths, returning $4.60 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE, and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (99:16-20-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Tap the Moment (5th race: 15-1 M/L; 8.10-1 PT) was not a factor, finishing ninth while beaten by 5 3/4 lengths.