The GQ Approach – Laurel August 18

by | Aug 18, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $14,816
  • Super High 5: $4,120
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Change of Equipment or Medication - Trainers often tinker with a horse's equipment - putting on or removing blinkers, adding Lasix, gelding a horse - to find what works best. Sometimes these changes can yield big improvements.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 11/ #5 – She’s Achance Too (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 /#7 – Tap the Moment (15-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 5, 7, 11 w/ 6, 7 ($12.00)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 7, 13 w/ 1, 2, 4 w/ 3, 4, 7 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, high of 87
  • Scheduled turf races: 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 12th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT — Happy Maryland Pride Day!

Race 1 

  1. #5 — Matta (6-1): Trombetta’s go-to rider Pimentel lands here, rather than trainer’s other entrant; two of his sibs earned over $100k
  2. #11 — Hall Pass (5-1): Decent try last out in MSW company and takes small drop in class here; red-hot trainer Smith adds blinks
  3. #7 — Reds Winning Call (12-1): Dam Red’s Round Table had some injury issues — but also major talent; note bullet work on 8/8

Race 2

  1. #6 – Pete’s Play Call (7-5): Has seen much better company, including graded stakes horses like Switzerland and True Timber; added half-furlong here should help, though last out effort makes these odds a bit tough to stomach — still, on best the most likely winner
  2. #7 – Saratoga Bob (5-2): Closing sort has never been worse than second in three tries at trip
  3. #4 – Apolodorodedamasco (12-1): Doesn’t win much, but that was a pretty solid try last out vs. N2X foes at DEL

Race 3

  1. #4 – Atlantic Avenue (4-1): Shortening up a plus here, and trainer Stites brings PEN stalwart Hernandez in for the mount
  2. #9 – Weekend Delight (6-1): Got a bit of time after solid debut try despite gate issues; switch to dirt may be a plus for daughter of Derby upsetter Giacomo
  3. #2 – Star Seed Child (7-2): Rider Centeno in the irons a plus for runner who had a useful debut — but why is trainer Sienkewicz running this one for the tag, rather than protecting it?

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – English Minister (3-1): Never worse than third in four tries at the trip, though this Trombetta trainee doesn’t win much (4-for-46); saw a rugged group in last, and the class relief has to help
  2. #2 – Spartianos (3-1): Speedster ran a big one last out to just miss in the Marshall Jenney; winner Fielder returned to be second in open allowance at LRL
  3. #4 – John Jones (5-2): Odds are too short on a runner whose last couple weren’t much to look at; can compete here on best

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. ***LONGSHOT PLAY #7 – Tap the Moment (15-1)***: First try on the green netted a huge step forward and an easy win at long odds vs. MSW foes; further improvement needed here
  2. #2 – Daniel Le Deux (4-1): Just missed vs. similar two back and enters off a win; owns N1X win, which makes this a snug fit on class
  3. #13 – Daddy’s Cozy (9-2): Rider Lynch stays aboard this Matz trainee who seems to be moving forward; lightly raced and still has some upside

Race 6

  1. #4 – Caught Dream’n (5-1): Career-best effort came at this trip when second in the Smart Halo to subsequent G3 winner Take Charge Paula; can return to best form in third start of ’18
  2. #1 – Majestic Reason (5-2): Flashy debut victory and rider Vargas returns to ride in this spot; not completely sold on that last race, but cutback to six panels may be an asset
  3. #2 – Zorally (4-1): Blinks on a runner who hasn’t seen a fast main track since debut; runner-up effort 5/18 at Old Hilltop was boffo, as this one had some trip troubles to just miss vs. a runner who returned to win a stake and place in G3 company

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Rocky Policy (9-2): D. Capuano trainee’s best would likely be good enough in this spot, and return to grass a positive; two-back winner ran second in SAR stake in follow-up
  2. #7 – If I Was a Boy (15-1): Horning homebred closed nicely in seasonal debut and should benefit from added furlong today
  3. #3 – Crabcakes (2-1): Hard-hitting sprinter returned to action with a bang when dusting some talented runners in season debut 7/26, and Great Notion as sire suggests grass sprint might hit her between the eyes — but sibs just 1-for-9 on the green and 2-1 feels too short on a horse trying something for the first time

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Chubby Star (9-5): Stakes-placed runner has been keeping better company than these; makes first start in two months
  2. #1 – Good Roll (6-1): Not too upset with even effort over yielding ground in last; has been facing better but nine straight losses give pause
  3. #8 – Victory Rally (6-1): Just one previous turf try from 11 career starts, which came in $40kMCL, a fast closing third that day going one mile when sent off Post Time favorite; second start with blinkers following runner-up effort in Lrl slop 

Race 9

  1. #6 – Whereshetoldmetogo (1-1): Pecoraro trainee looks to be a handful here off win over multiple graded-placed runner in Concern
  2. #3 – Onemoregreattime (8-1): Makes third start of ’18 after running a big one in last when setting sharp fractions and hanging on
  3. #1 – Whirlin Curlin (15-1): Was surprised to see this one in for a tag in last; first time in trainer Magee’s barn here; curious to see if he can rediscover form that made him two-time stake winner

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Zen’s Land (5-2): Closing sort in good form now; runner-up last out to category killer Brickyard Kitten, who’s not here today
  2. #5 – Daystrike (8-1): Had no answers for #3 here in last but return to better would make him a contender; rider Boyce chooses this one over #6
  3. #1 — Senor Louie (9-2): Improving sort ran behind #3 here in last start; shows just one slooooowwww work since that tilt 7/10

Race 11

  1. ***BEST BET #5 – She’s Achance Too (9-5)***: Formful sort likes the trip and just crushed N1X foes at DEL
  2. #1 – Ghoul’s Night Out (2-1): Broke maiden at this trip; runner has plenty of pretty-good-but-not-quite-good-enough efforts
  3. #4 – Stormy Sue (12-1): May get a clue about this one earlier on the card when two she beat in debut show up in a maiden event; rallied smartly after early issues to win debut and shows a sharp gate work in interim

Race 12 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Include a Check (5-2): Wheels back on short rest after ok try; Include mare will run without blinks for the first time in almost three years
  2. #2 – Proud Maid Marian (6-1): Makes third start of ’18; most recent turf route try three back wasn’t bad vs. better
  3. #5 – Participate (3-1): In-and-out form but best efforts compete here

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday, August 16 at Laurel had 5 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 284 for 1003 (28.31%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $4.00
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $4.40
    • R7: 6.20
    • R8: $5.00
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $17.60
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race 6 Pick 3 Double, which returned $11.30 (bet cost: $13.50).
  • BEST BET of the Day (101: 27-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Tam Tam Attack (2nd race: 7-5 M/L; 1-1 PT) rated off a rival early, moved to engage on the turn, and edged away in mid-stretch, returning $4.00 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE, and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (98:16-20-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Sanguine (6th race: 5-1 M/L; 2.60-1 PT) prompted the pace inside the winner and stuck with it to the wire, finishing second while some five lengths in arrears of the victor, returning $3.00 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.

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