The GQ Approach – Laurel August 17

by | Aug 17, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $12,162
  • Super High 5: $1,578
  • Late Pick 5: $5,393
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2/ #6 – Tam Tam Attack (7-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#3 – Sanguine (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 2, 4, 6 w/ 6 ($8.00)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 3: 3, 5, 8 w/ 3, 4, 8 w/ 1, 7, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 3, 4, 6 w/ 2, 3, 4 ($18.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly cloudy, high of 92
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 8th, 9th 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 — Clear as Day (7-2): Rider Feargal Lynch leaves two other runners here, including favored #2, to pilot this one
  2. #2 — She’s Divine (5-2): Don’t see much of Keiber Coa around these parts; Creative Cause filly ran a good one on debut on the main track and breezed a half on the lawn on 8/10
  3. #4 — Indigo Queen (15-1): Trainer Gaudet has a solid record with first-time starters

Race 2

  1. *** BEST BET #6 – Tam Tam Attack (7-5) ***: Crushed lesser two back and gave perfectly credible effort last out vs. STALW foes
  2. #2 – King’s House (3-1): Speedy sort should be involved from first jump 
  3. #5 – Gotham News (7-2): Probably want better value than morning line suggests for closing sort who’s more likely to be underneath in the exacta or triple

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Here’s Johnny (3-1): Speedy sort ran a good one in last grass try; trainer Maldonado’s barn a bit chilly right now (3-for-43 at the meet)
  2. #1a – The Catmancan (5-2): Has been competitive against similar, including a four-back triumph
  3. #8 – Shan Dian Kia (5-1): Recent tries vs. similar aren’t bad

Race 4

  1. #2 – On the Hop (9-5): Has beaten similar and makes second start off a 7-week break; never worse than third in six at the trip
  2. #3 – Gingeresk (12-1): Improving Robb trainee has bested elders in last two
  3. #4 – Queen of Schmooze (9-2): Beat similar in last; makes third start off a short break after edging #5 in here in last

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Esquisse (1-2): Believe me, I’m not any happier about this pick than you are: odds are gonna be too short on a runner who’s solid but no world beater, yet she’s clearly the most likely winner in this group; can’t criticize you if you want to take a swing against, and it might be worth keeping an eye out for bridge jumpers
  2. #3 – Jumpin’ Nancy (20-1): Her recent turf tries aren’t that bad, and added ground projects to benefit her; veteran Pino in the irons knows where the wire is
  3. #8 – Enthrall (9-2): Has demonstrated tendency to make big middle move before emptying out late, including in last; trainer Goldberg gives her a slow six-furlong work in preparation for this and legs up Hall of Famer Prado for third time on her

Race 6

  1. ***LONGSHOT PLAY #3 – Sanguine (5-1) ***: Half-sib to two $100k earners is working well for trainer Motion
  2. #8 – Abbo (6-1): Trainer Lawrence just 3-for-45 with debut maiden special weight runners, but this one’s sibs include Bern Identity ($877k) and Battle of Evermore ($264k)
  3. #5 – Bye Bye Bertie (9-5): Good effort in debut in the mud when running second, but rivals from that race are 0-for-4 in follow-ups

Race 7

  1. #4 – Angelinas Star (5-1): Nicanor filly is working well enough for this and trainer Robb is 5-for-27 with debut maiden claimers in recent years; he and rider Pino have been thriving together
  2. #3 – Lonely Drifter (5-2): Takes major drop from last dirt try at MC 40k
  3. #8 – Purring Valentine (5-1): Ness trainee makes ’18 debut here; show horse from last won MC 16k in follow-up

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Not in Jeopardy (7-2): Good rally in last when forced to alter farther outside after beginning to gain steam; runner-up from two back try won an ALW in follow-up
  2. #8 – Dorothy Vaughan (10-1): Cutback to short sprint should put this miss back in the mix
  3. #1 – Bells Irish Fancy (9-2): Useful season debut in last when leading until late; can move forward here, as addition of blinks two back has been a boost

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – The Tortoise (5-2): Last a bit of a puzzle, but we’re inclined for the time being to draw a line through it as it came on yielding ground; return to best would be good enough for Rubley trainee
  2. #6 – Maru’s Raven (3-1): Top five from last turf start, when this one ran second, all finished in the triple in follow-ups: 5:2-2-1
  3. #3 – Swinging Star (2-1): Second off a brief break and second in Matz barn; Matz 0-for-19 at the meet

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Grace Isabella (5-1): Was one of four in the photo in last when rallying stoutly
  2. #2 – Scarfree (8-1): A turf race without front-end speed? That’s what this one looks like — except for this runner, whose Achilles Heel is penchant for tiring and coughing up lead late
  3. #4 — Oh So Lovely (10-1): Added half-furlong ought to aid cause of runner who came from the clouds to win last while in hand in final jumps; rider Toledo and trainer Farrior have stellar record together

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday, August 16 at Laurel had 5 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below). The last two races of the card were taken off the turf late.
  • Top Selections are 282 for 993 (28.40%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $9.20
    • R2: $4.00
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $12.40
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $8.00
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $24.40
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race 1 Double, which returned $22.20 (bet cost: $12.00).
  • BEST BET of the Day (100:26-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Sophia Is an Angel (8th race: 7-2 M/L; 3-1 PT) tracked the early pace under a light hold while inside, moved out entering the lane before altering back in for running room, and surged to win by almost two lengths, returning $8.00 to WIN, $4.00 to PLACE, and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (97:16-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Carved (3rd race: 6-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) stumbled leaving the starting gate before settling into a stalking position, took command midway on the backstretch and led to the stretch before giving away to finish fourth, beatn by almost 11 lengths.

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