The GQ Approach – Laurel August 11

by | Aug 11, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $8,169
  • Super High 5$1,723
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Cutback in distance - Running a route race (1 mile or more) can improve a horse's fitness and help him learn to relax; it can also lead to a big effort when shortening up to a sprint.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 10 / #8 – Sweet Turn (4-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 /#3 – More Abundance (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 4, 9, 10 w/ 1, 4, 6 ($18.00)
  • Race 8 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 3, 4 w/ 3, 6, 8 w/ 5, 8, 12 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Intermittent thunderstorms, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 Jo Sho (8-1): Improved effort in second career outing despite minor trip troubles; winner and show horse won next races
  2. #9 Bound Bi Luck (5-2): Drops in company for third straight start; return to two back effort would be good enough here in what will be first true turf sprint of career
  3. #10 Forthegreatergood (9-2): Finds lowest level of career and has a couple of prior tries that would contend here, among them three-back runner-up effort at MC 25k level when under a stranglehold early

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Gateau St Honore (9-2): First off the claim for claiming ace Kieron Magee; adds Lasix and stretches out Don Gato filly, who may benefit from both; Magee 13-for-41 first off the claim in MCL company and like that he gives this one time but wheels her back at same level as claim
  2. #1 – Lilibet (4-1): Failed as favorite in last but Pimentel remains aboard and an improved effort here would be no surprise
  3. #6 – Too Many Kittens (5-1): Double drop here out of MSW company; trainer Motion 13-for-85 making similar move

Race 3

  1. #5 – Zulu (8-5): Trainer Navarro chooses to protect this one first off the claim, running him here in N3X company
  2. #2 – Tour de Force (10-1): Will need to find mid-2017 form to compete here, but trainer Gaudet has good first-with-trainer record, and this one sports a couple of bullet works in preparation
  3. #6 – Measured (7-2): PEN shipper has won this race before, likes this trip, and provides rider Wolfsont only LRL mount of day

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Include a Check (6-1): Significant class relief from recent turf tries and has shown the ability to run well up close or running on late
  2. #3 – Enthusiastic Gal (2-1): Not sold on quality of field she beat in last and not really enthralled by likely price, but 6yo mare is formful enough now
  3. #9 – Sugar Cane Girl (5-1): Show horse from last won in this company in follow-up

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Lill Mave (4-1): Made a big middle move and actually led between calls before tiring late; can make amends here
  2. #5 – Pikes Peak Or Bust (7-2): Drops a step after rising in consecutive starts (from 16k to 20k to 40k); two-back winner crushed at the 25k N2L level in follow-up
  3. #8 – Unexpected Visit (9-5): I dunno, something just feels off about this one showing up in first of ’18 for half what he ran for last out; a contender on best

Race 6

  1. #1/1a – Bringyourownbottle/On the Hop (3-5): Double-barreled Potts entry has a presser in 1a and a closer in plain 1; overall prefer the 1a in here but both halves of entry good enough on best
  2. #6 – Contrarity (6-1): Much improved effort in last when dropped to appropriate spot; new rider Lynch sports major positive ROI with trainer McMahon
  3. #7 – Dad’s City Girl (6-1): Likes this trip and drops off decent efforts — but runner has lost 16 straight

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Easyzip (3-1): Turf tries fit here; place and show horses from two-back effort graduated next out
  2. #2 – I Ain’t Never (4-1): Two back try was first sprinting on the lawn; solid effort after early issues in a race that produced two next-out winners
  3. #8 – Eagle Caviar (5-2): Decent effort against slightly better in last

Race 8

  1. #2 – What’s Inside (2-1): Toss the turf stake and this one looks tough here; bad beat two back when winning the pace battle only to lose the war to late runner
  2. #3 – Oldies But Goodies (6-1): Lightly raced sort still has upside
  3. #4 – Shane’s Jewel (9-2): Decent try in last vs. similar and added ground here a plus

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #3 – More Abundance (10-1) ***: Dempsey trainee was third against N2X foes two back, and winner repeated at N3X level
  2. #8 – Blue Chip Prospect (4-1): Trainer Cibelli loaded for bear today; two-back winner took stake at MTH in follow-up, and this one makes third start off a layoff here
  3. #6 – Jareth (7-2): Shows three works since decent outing June 30

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** BEST BET #8 – Sweet Turn (4-1) ***: Big effort in turf bow when pressing fast early pace before drawing away; well spotted here
  2. #12 – Pointedlee (12-1): First in barn of trainer Allsop
  3. #5 – Lovely Sunset (9-2): Best finish of four here from July 14 contest

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, August 10 at Laurel had 5 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 275 for 963 (28.56%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: $13.20
    • R4: $5.60
    • R5: $4.80
    • R6: $20.40
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $8.60
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, did not hit any.
  • BEST BET of the Day (97:25-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Candys Delight (9th race: 3-1 M/L; 1-1 PT) saved ground on the turn, drifted to the three-path entering the lane, and faltered to finish seventh by 14 lengths.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (94:15-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) I’ve Gotta Plan (10th race: 8-1 M/L; 7.90-1 PT) dueled for the early lead between horses, earned a short lead leaving the five-eighths, shook clear, was collared in mid-stretch, fought gamely to the last 70 yards, and faltered late to finish fourth, beaten five lengths.

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