The GQ Approach – Laurel August 10

by | Aug 10, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $6,519
  • Super High 5$607
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 1 / #1 – Candys Delight (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 10 /#4 – I’ve Gotta Plan (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 8 w/ 3, 5, 7, 8 ($16.00)
  • Race 8 – 50-cent Pick 3: 3, 5, 9 w/ 3, 5, 7 w/ 4, 6, 9 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly cloudy, high in the upper 80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** BEST BET #1 – Candys Delight (3-1) ***: Gelded since last outing when fourth in what was probably the best juvenile maiden race contested in Maryland this year, producing four next-out winners, including Tremont winner Our Braintrust; breeding says grass should fit him like a glove
  2. #8 – Total Bien (6-1): Robb barn has had success with juveniles over the years, and this one’s dam won 11 times; will leg up veteran Pino, and note good record the duo has fashioned
  3. #2 – River Gal (4-1): Filly set to take on the boys; she’s a half-sis to hard-hitter River Deep

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – No Fly Zone (4-1): Gave a good accounting of himself when sprinting in career bow; winner that day, American Guru, now three-for-four in career
  2. #7 – High Rider (5-1): Pricey Candy Ride gelding gave a decent effort last out when finishing fourth versus similar; show horse returned to graduate at same level
  3. #5 – Caneel Bay (7-2): Pretty good try last out when second despite trip troubles

Race 3

  1. #1 – Mike the Tiger (4-1): Second start of ’18 and second for solid Egan barn; rallied smartly for show dough in last and runner-up graduated vs. better next out
  2. #7 – C M Runaway (4-1): Absolutely full of run at the end of last
  3. #6 – Allthewrongreasons (7-2): Blinks on in second try in Reid barn; oddly enough, five of seven starts have been on off tracks

Race 4

  1. #7 – Totally Unexpected (4-1): Third off a three-month break for Cal Lynch trainee; added ground may help overcome lack of early foot
  2. #5 – Bungalow (9-5): Gonzalez trainee a logical contender here, but 9-5 feels a little short on a horse that’s lost three times at this level
  3. #4 – Witchy’s Laststand (12-1): Sophomore has won three times — one more than his rivals

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Indigo Queen (4-1): Trainer Gaudet is 5-for-14 with 2yo first-time starters; first runner out of a mare who won once on the green stuff
  2. #2 – No Mo Lady (5-2): Whoa – an Uncle Mo filly in a local maiden event’s not a common sight; dam won three of six, all on turf; suspect this one will want more ground than is on offer here, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see her score here
  3. #8 – Admiral’s Row (5-1): Trainer Schoenthal scratched her out of Thursday MCL tilt to await this spot

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Lion Lord (5-1): First time in Corrales barn and also second time with Lasix for star-crossed Bernardini gelding; something similar to debut effort – only prior grass try – would get the money
  2. #7 – Cabinet Pik (9-5): Has two good tries vs. similar; showing a solid work since last
  3. #3 – Shanghai Storm (3-1): Never worse than third in three tries on the turf

Race 7

  1. #3 – Be a Hero (9-5): Runner loves to win and never worse than second in five at the trip; crushed similar last out at MTH; trainer Navarro, of “Juice Man” video fame, continuing to win at preposterously high rate (35% this year)
  2. #6 – Henry the King (12-1): Shift back to the main track a positive
  3. #1a – Iredell (5-2): Ness trainee another who loves to win (4-for-7 this year), and never worse than third in four at the distance

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Love You Much (5-2): Wandering around a little bit while on wrong lead in last; best finish of four from that race who are here today
  2. #3 – Robey’s Boy (8-1): Blinks off a runner who has done his best work sprinting on the grass; return to firmer surface here a plus
  3. #9 – Runaway Bull (20-1): Infrequent winner was absolutely out of it in last before mounting late rally for fourth; top pilot Toledo remains aboard

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Banjo Bill (7-2): Really good effort in last vs. starter types when setting fast fractions while dogged by rivals, then pulling clear
  2. #3 – My Brothersledge (15-1): Full-bro to 2017 Md. Million Lady’s winner My Sistersledge; breeding says added ground here a plus; three beaten rivals from last ran second in follow-ups
  3. #7 – Speed Game (10-1): Eventful stretch run in last when third at long odds behind hard-hitting Brickyard Kitten

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #4 – I’ve Gotta Plan (8-1) ***: Rallied to the lead leaving furlong grounds before tiring in last; can make amends here
  2. #6 – Bobs Your Uncle (4-1): Trainer Rubley adds blinkers on a runner who had a useful debut vs. better
  3. #9 – Stamped (5-2): Finished ahead of #4 in last; makes third start off five-month break

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday August 4th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 272 for 953 (28.54%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners…
    • R1: $15.00
    • R2: $9.20
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $5.20
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $28.00
    • R7: $6.20
    • R8: $3.60
    • R9: $2.80
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 DOUBLE which returned $81.20 on a $2 wager (total of $18 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (96:25-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Just Howard (9th race: 1-1 M/L; 2-5 PT) stalked the pace while saving ground, tipped two wide turning for home, and powered to victory, returning $2.80 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (93:15-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Beltway Bob (6th race: 8-1 M/L; 13-1 PT) settled at the rear of the field, began to move entering the turn, tipped five wide while under a ride nearing the quarter-pole, and rallied to win, returning $28.00 to WIN, $11.80 to PLACE, and $5.20 to SHOW.

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