The GQ Approach – Laurel August 9

by Aug 9, 2018Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

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  • Rainbow Pick 6: $5,197
  • Super High 5$1,544
  • Late Pick 5: none[/su_box]

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[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 9 / #2 – Just Howard (1-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 6 /#11 – Beltway Bob (8-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 2, 9, 11 w/ 1, 10, 11 ($18.00)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 6, 8 w/ 9, 11 w/ 1, 4, 8 ($9.00)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Monthly (6-1): Willing effort in last when third at DEL; second time with Lasix and second start off a nine-month break
  2. #9 – Kensington (7-2): Clement trainee made little impact in two tries earlier this year at GP; seventh-place finisher from last graduated next out at TAM
  3. #11 – For Kicks (5-1): Blinks on for fourth try of ’18 for Matz trainee; winner of last defeated N1X rivals in follow-up, while show horse graduated

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Who U Gonna Call (6-1): Testerman trainee ran on willingly while wide on the course after sluggish break in debut; added ground may aid cause
  2. #10 – Ledecka (5-2): Trainer Delacour is 12-for-47 with first-time starters at LRL; six-figure purchase is by high-end sire Tiznow and is first foal out of a winning mare
  3. #11 – Classic Fit (3-1): Trainer Stidham posted recent win with debut runner for same owner: Godolphin LLC

Race 3

  1. #3 – Patriotic Heart (5-2): Speedy sort has shown ability to lead or stalk, well-spotted here
  2. #4 – Saint Mistress (7-2): Rallied nicely to win last out in first try in almost a year; Geralis barn firing of late
  3. #2 – Thirst for Truth (3-1): Didn’t show much in last vs. better but can make amends here 

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Race 4

  1. #6 – Top Hat Warrior (4-1): Bad break compromised chances but Warrior’s Reward colt stuck with it to the end; expecting improved effort here
  2. #7 – Joey Gotcha (12-1): Chased to no avail in last but can improve after seven-week freshening; trainer Robb 4-for-18 with juvy maidens coming off similar breaks
  3. #1 – Destructive Flo (9-5): Little bit surprised to see Pecoraro trainee ship down from DEL and run for less than max claiming tag after big try in last; first time Lasix has been positive play for this barn

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Admiration (8-5): Good try for Trimble trainee last out while setting modest pace; reprise of that scenario a possibility here; two from last graduated next out
  2. #8 – Mutawasem (8-1): Gave a decent accounting of himself last out in first in 13 months and first in N. America; steps up to MSW company here
  3. #1 – Real Factor (8-1): Return to preferred surface a plus 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #11 – Beltway Bob (8-1) ***: Even effort in last but two back win was solid, and race produced three next-out winners
  2. #9 – The Tortoise (2-1): Rubley trainee has solid credentials including good try two back when second vs. similar
  3. #5 – Papal Law (9-2): Best efforts make him competitive with these

Race 7

  1. #1 – Candy Wompus (5-2): Trainer Ness is 10-for-45 with debut maiden claimers; one sib to this one graduated at two; work tab, including six-furlong drill 7/15, says he’s ready
  2. #4 – Three Phase (8-5): Have to respect the chalk, but he’s been second three straight vs. similar and has yet to see a runner who won next out
  3. #8 – Charley Eckman (12-1): Blinks on for Ham Smith trainee who showed nothing on debut; Smith barn 9-for-28 in last 30 days

Race 8

  1. #2 – Waterhaven (6-1): Speedster found going a little tough when running vs. N1X foes but can improve here
  2. #8 – Cerulean Springs (6-1): Lightbulb theory in play as Temple City gelding graduated last out in 14th try; will hope for a lively pace to develop to unleash best late kick
  3. #6 – No More Talk (5-2): Has kept better company than these without notable success; credible effort in last

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** BEST BET #2 – Just Howard (1-1) ***: G3 winner gets back to home field, where he’s won three of four; willing effort in last when beaten two lengths by millionaire Divisidero, owns class advantage here
  2. #3 – Surprise Twist (5-1): Little bit of trip trouble posed no obstacle in last, which was seasonal debut; one of three beaten rivals to run back won follow-up
  3. #9 – Atlantic Sun (15-1): Backed out readily in last when up close to solid early pace in 12-furlong Cape Henlopen; can give improved account of himself back at 8.5f; two rivals from two-back show effort won follow-ups

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Baltimore Babe (5-2): Blinks on and return to two-back effort vs. better likely makes her a graduate here
  2. #6 – Pass a Mento (10-1): First time Lasix for Gaudet trainee, who is a half-sib to three turf winners; looking for improved effort
  3. #2 – Just Say Lucky (15-1): Premature move in last before emptying out but stuck with it; can improve

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday August 4th at Laurel had 6 winners from the nine-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 267 for 943 (28.31%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners…
    • R1: $4.60
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: $3.20
    • R4: $8.60
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $9.60
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $2.80
    • R9: $5.00
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R8-R9 DOUBLE which returned $8.40 on a $2 wager (total of $16 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (95:24-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Caught Dream’n (7th race: 9-5 M/L; 4-5 PT) lacked early speed, came four wide leaving the turn and rallied to earn the place, returning $2.60 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (92:14-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Somekindofmagician (5th race: 4-1 M/L; 3.80-1 PT) was outrun throughout, finishing last while beaten by 22 lengths.