The GQ Approach – Laurel August 5

by Aug 5, 2018Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

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  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,744.43
  • Super High 5$1,021.21
  • Late Pick 5: none[/su_box]

[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]

[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 7 / #7 – Caught Dream’n (9-5)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 5 /#11 – Somekindofmagician (4-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 3, 5, 7 w/ 3, 4 ($12.00)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 8, 11 w/ 1, 4, 7 w/ 3, 10, 11 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 5: 3, 10, 11 w/ 1, 7 w/ 7 w/ 5, 6 w/ 1, 3, 4, 7 ($24.00)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 5, 6 w/ 1, 3, 4, 7 ($16.00)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd and 5th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #7 – Sweet Home Dixie (5-2): Game runner-up effort in debut, looking professional with a late run following a horrible start in 5 furlong contest when very cold on the board (17-1); may need to improve to graduate      
  2. #3 – Empire Panther (8-1): Most experienced 2 y.o. in the field exits an ill-advised turf try; a pair of dirt efforts prior were much more promising for thinking she could earn her diploma today       
  3. #5 – Hainted (4-1): MD/home-bred for Barak Farm by freshman sire Flashback who has 3 winners from 9 runners so far; trainer/jock combo of W. Potts and C. Cedeno 1 for 2 at meet      

Race 2

  1. #4 – Value Added (2-1): Quick turn around after conquering $10kN2L at Lrl last weekend in first start after trainer P. Schoenthal claim for $16k whose winners repeat at a 33% clip
  2. #3 – Contradance (5-2): Destroyed fellow PA-breds in $8kN2L at Pen for second career win in 26th start; 0 for 3 at Lrl and jock is 0 for 33 this year
  3. #6 – Nairet (3-1): Takes appropriate drop back to this level and should give better account of herself on stretch out to one mile but is 0 for 23 at Lrl

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Slewzer (3-1): Perfect record ended in third/latest start possibly due to inability to break cleanly and get the early lead as in her first two OR was simply overmatched based on the very quick early fractions; today don’t see much speed to challenge her early
  2. #11 – Go Magician Go (9-5): Took a short break after beating winners for the first time in June as blinkers seemed to help; will need an honest pace to catch top pick
  3. #2 – Sudden Hope (8-1): Back at level where she has consistently performed well; winner two back on Lrl turf with some “give”

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Race 4

  1. #4 – Coqueta (3-1): Can claim top BRIS# of these 2-year-olds who have raced; showed willingness to pass rivals while most in here will be fighting for the lead
  2. #1 – Swirrlie Shirlie (8-5): Rough assignment on the rail but class drop from $40kMCL should help; failed as Post Time favorite but winner came back to win again here on Thursday 
  3. #7 – Barbsgray Lion (15-1): Second start with blinkers; could be bombs away if bug boy A. Quiles gets this gray to the front early and discourages the rest

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Somekindofmagician (4-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Not much of a price play but he’s got the highest ML odds of all top picks; comes off 6-month layoff and faced better in the pair of outings this winter at GP; cut back is a wise move 
  2. #10 – Rapid Dan (15-1): Just one win in 16 starts on the turf but that one came at Lrl in $50k Allowance company;  being offered for the $25k tag is of no concern as trainer D. Capuano figures if anyone wants a 7 y.o., take him  
  3. #3 – Smile for Eternity (10-1): Third start after layoff; failed as Post Time favorite in latest; can make amends with gate-to-wire score at a price 

Race 6

  1. #7 – Sharon’s Thunder (3-5): Third race after layoff; only question is can she get up in time going this short sprint distance? She has but just once (9:1-3-4)
  2. #1 – Temple Sky (15-1): Adds blinkers that must have been on during latest workout, a bullet; cuts back in distance
  3. #2 – Ms. Picadilly (7-2): Fresh off maiden win in 18th career start when albeit going 4 ½ furlongs at CT at rock bottom level; is quick enough to threaten for the top spot again

Race 7

  1. #7 – Caught Dream’n (9-5): *** BEST BET *** IMHO looks like a Single for horizontal wagers; no worse than second (4:1-3-0), all coming in sprints; finally stretches out a few furlongs which fits his bloodlines with Blame as her sire and dam by Malibu Moon; sheds blinkers
  2. #2 – Hell of Afire (2-1): Reliable runner always picks up a check but has yet to find the Winners’ Circle in ’18 (7:0-2-3); majority of foes she faces today haven’t been as successful at this level
  3. #4 – Curuzu (6-1): Must respect C. McGaughey shippers when F. Boyce is in the irons (29% in the past year); best outing was maiden breaker in the slop at Mth two back when blinkers were added

Race 8

  1. #6 – Magician’scalendar (4-5): Steep class drop to the bottom just two races after romping against $16kN2L; needs the lead to win and only a pair of foe (#2 and #3) are candidates to challenge for that early on
  2. #5 – Flyingtobechilders (12-1): Been facing $7,500 open claimers and starters on turf which should make these conditional $5k claimers more manageable; 2 for 11 on dirt makes him a threat unless at age 9 his form has fallen off to the point of no return
  3. #2 – Arizona Baby (5-1): Victorious in latest for a nickel over non-winners of three which came in the slop here earning a career best BRIS#, 20 pts. Better than previous outing; could bounce

Race 9

  1. #1 – Astrea (5-2): Second start with blinkers and drops a level seeking diploma while switching from turf to dirt; showed early speed going long last time which sets up nicely for cut back here
  2. #7 – Rosy’s Rainbow (9-5): Always beware of the “House Horse” (i.e. Stronach Stables); transferred from north of the border thinking dirt might be more to her liking; adds blinkers
  3. #4 – Towson (5-1): Have lost a small fortune backing this in the majority of his 10 starts; been his own worst enemy at times leaving the gate; shortening up is not idea but don’t see others having a better shot

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday August 4th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 10-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 265 for 934 (28.37%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners…
    • R1: $7.80
    • R2: $6.40
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $3.40
    • R5: $4.60
    • R6: $3.60
    • R7: $10.00
    • R8: $6.20
    • R9: $9.80
    • R10: $10.40
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R9-R10 DOUBLE which returned $70.00 on a $2 wager (total of $18 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (94:24-26-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Determined Vision (4th race: 4-1 M/L; 1-1 PT) dueled outside the winner throughout and weakened late to be runner-up just one-length behind the winner and returned $3.20 to PLACE and there was No SHOW wagering.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (91:14-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Wildly Clever (8th race: 5-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) settled back off of a contested early pace, advanced between rivals mid turn, angled five wide into the lane, closed under pressure, took command a sixteenth out and drew clear to win by a two-lengths and returned $6.20 to WIN, $3.40 to PLACE and $3.00 to SHOW.