The GQ Approach – Laurel August 4

by Aug 4, 2018Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,312
  • Super High 5none
  • Late Pick 5: none[/su_box]

[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]

[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 7 / #3 – Determined Vision (4-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 8 /#6 – Wildly Clever (5-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 3, 6 w/ 4, 6 ($12.00)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 5, 6, 7 w/ 8 w/ 1, 2, 3, 7 ($8)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 5: 4 w/ 3 w/ 1, 2, 5, 6 w/ 1, 3, 4 w/ 2, 5, 6, 8 ($24.00)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 1, 3, 4 w/ 2, 6, 8 ($18.00)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Arkadag (7-2): CD shipper catches a break as it was a head-scratcher why connections entered this turf race when his recent dirt BRIS#s are good enough to earn diploma at Lrl
  2. #6 – Dragonthorn Speed (10-1): Stretch out on turf seemed to wake this one up after a pair of dirt sprints that indicated he’d want more distance
  3. #1 – Vincent Van Gogo (9-5): Makes seventh career start, first on dirt even though bloodlines are filled with successful dirt runners; additional of blinkers since transferred to L. Gaudet barn has helped

Race 2

  1. #4 – Mid Ocean (5-2): Late runner needs an honest pace to break winless streak which stands at 10; extra 1/16th should find him passing leg-weary foes in final furlong
  2. #6 – Junction (5-2): In a perfect storm he could get an uncontested lead in hopes that bug boy W. Hamilton can set a slow pace giving his mount the ability to have enough left in the tank to hold off rivals at the wire
  3. #3 – Mythos (2-1): Veteran of 36 races as only tested this 9 furlongs once, which he won; should find this group much softer than the Starter Alw turf foes he failed to threaten while in claiming jail

Race 3 is the Camptown Stakes – OFF THE TURF

  1. #5 – Up Hill Battle (5-1): Liked this one regardless of the surface; got worst part of 3-way photo with #1 and #8 back in stakes race two back, after a nightmarish trip  
  2. #6 – What the Beep (6-1): Failed as favorite in stakes versus the same group 6-weeks ago ending 2-race win streak; willing to forgive that 2-length loss as a blip on the radar
  3. #2 – Northern Eclipse (5-1): Hasn’t raced on the main oval since his maiden days (3:0-2-0) which is more than some others who stayed in; versatile running style is a plus  

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Race 4 is the Wm. M. Backer Stakes – OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Paulita (8-5): MTO entry for trainer A. Delacour will likely find herself on the lead early without much pressure
  2. #4 – Street Miz (30-1): Pathetic when a 3 for 41, $5k claimer has a shot in a $75k stakes event but those are the cards Mother Nature has dealt; top BRIS# dirt number (73) equaled only by top pick  
  3. #5 – Secret Or Not (12-1): Been a while since this one has raced on dirt (4:0-1-1) but it’s not like he’s repulsed by it; willing to take a shot leaving the #2 Queen Caroline OTB

Race 5

  1. #7 – Powell (5-2): KY-bred son of Munnings out of a Macho Uno mare hails from the M. Stidham barn who gets first time starters to the Winners Circle at a 20% clip; morning works are impressive
  2. #3 – Thatwouldbegrand (7-5): Based on debut where he was much the second best after being fractious and tardy leaving the gate and getting the final 1/16th in approximately 11 2/5; if he runs back to that he should win
  3. #1 – The Happy Giant (20-1): Turf debut was promising after a sluggish start closing ground late in decent fractions; breaking from the rail might hurt; CT jock stays aboard

Race 6 is the Hansel Stakes – OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – River Deep (4-1): Was cross-entered in turf sprint (R7) so trainer P. Schoenthal feels best shot is in here and I agree; has the early speed to earn a gate-to-wire score 
  2. #7 – Officer’s Oath (30-1): Four-time winner has performed better on the dirt (5:2-0-1) than turf (13:2-0-1); should be forwardly placed throughout with a chance to blowup totebaord
  3. #5 – Jump Ship (20-1): Just 2 for 37 lifetime but worth a look to use underneath in exotics; has the plodding type of running style to pick up a minor share late

Race 7 is the Meadow Stable Stakes – OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Determined Vision (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Won turf debut when 11-1 as a GQ LSPOD as he caught an early-speed challenged group; similar scenario exists in this event  
  2. #2 – Homespun Hero (8-1): Couldn’t get to top pick in state-bred stakes two back when he lacked room at the quarter pole; lack of pace in here will make it difficult to turn the tides      
  3. #8 – Fly E Dubai (5-1): BRIS#s have been climbing though on turf but he can do dirt as well (8:1-1-2); connections make the right move by staying in this off the turf event as others decided to bail        

Race 8

  1. #6 – Wildly Clever (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Gets back on a fast track for first time since trainer G. Wilson claimed this 4 y.o. gelding out of his bottom level maiden win at same 7 furlongs distance as today; drop from $16k should help matters as well
  2. #1 – Bad Angle Burke (5-2): Rolling the dice that something went amiss in first start after H. McMahon claim and jock simply took care of the horse (7th by 34); trainer might be trying to steal a win; J. Davis’ lone mount on the card… she’s 2 for 6 on McMahon runners
  3. #2 – Upper Crown (2-1): Connections finally got a reality check that $16k maiden winners usually aren’t successful at the $25k level; reunites with bug T. Lyapustina who was aboard for best two career efforts

Race 9

  1. #3 – Emma’sdiamonddiva (2-1): Exits ill-advised turf try against elders when equipped with blinkers; keeps the hood on while returning to dirt restricted to peers and the level she was victorious three races back
  2. #1 – Shecor (12-1): Third start after layoff; stretches out to two turns for first time in over a year; seeking first such victory in just fourth start going long
  3. #4 – Mila Jane (6-1): To use a grizzled handicapper’s term, she was “stiffed” in latest when sent off even money, never getting into contention yet returns at a higher level; trainer C. Gonzalez wins with 28% of his beaten favorites

Race 10

  1.  #2 – Be Back (3-1): Runner-up at this level in last two since C. Frock took over the training duties; can get elusive second win in 29th career start with a clean trip
  2.  #8 – Army Grey (3-1): Lightbulb Theory could be in play here as this 4 y.o. gelding earned diploma in his 17th start; trainer C. Gonzalez wins at a 31% clip with his next out maiden winners
  3.  #6 – Midnight Cry (5-1): Hasn’t taken to the turf the way new connections who claimed him three races back thought; takes multi-level class drop and returns to dirt which he enjoyed prior to claim, hitting the board in all three races restricted to 3 y.o.

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday August 3rd at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 261 for 924 (28.24%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners…
    • R1: $15.00
    • R2: $6.80
    • R3: $16.20
    • R4: $20.00
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $3.40
    • R7: $6.20
    • R8: $6.60
    • R9: xxx
  • BEST BET of the Day (93:24-25-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Confidently (4th race: 4-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) between rivals entering the turn, failed to kick on leaving the three eighths pole, dropped back and finishing sixth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (90:13-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Reality Queen (3rd race: 12-1 M/L; 7-1 PT) saved ground on the turn stalking the pace, eased out entering the stretch, gained the lead near the sixteenth pole and was kept to her business to win by a half-length and returned $16.20 to WIN, $8.00 to PLACE and $3.60 to SHOW.