The GQ Approach – Laurel August 3

by | Aug 3, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,404
  • Super High 5none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 /#3 – Confidently (4-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 /#6 – Reality Queen (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 8 w/ 2, 5, 6 ($12.00)
  • Race 3 – $2 Double: 6, 8, 10 w/ 3, 6, 8 w/ 4, 6, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 5: 4, 6 w/ 2, 3, 5 w/ 5 w/ 1, 2 w/ 5, 9, 11, 12 ($24.00)
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 2 w/ 5, 9, 11 ($12.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Cloudy w/ chance of showers, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST to GOOD/ Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1 – Popular Avenue (2-1): MTO entry appears to be the speed of the speed and a sloppy surface will enhance his chances; failed as even one choice when much the second best under bug A. Quiles
  2. #8 – McPherson (6-1): Seems to be a delicate gelding needing more than the normal amount of time between races; adds blinkers and drops to lowest level for ninth career start 
  3. #4 – Dutch Blitz (3-1): BRIS#s have been climbing since trainer H. McMahon’s claim four races back; runner-up as Post Time favorite in last two (on turf) as well as in only off track outing

Race 2

  1. #5 – Alwaysmining (6-5): Mid and late pace “last race”’ numbers tower over today’s rivals to justify short ML odds; adds Lasix for fifth career start
  2. #2 – Girls Love Me (5-2): … in my 60 y.o. dreams but I digress; looked like a knockout winning debut at Pim then got a reality check in $150k Tremont at Bel; thereafter high-volume owner who uses multiple trainers locally transferred her to meets leading trainer
  3. #6 – Windsors for It (6-1): CT-based shipper was impressive in debut, easily disposing of state bred foes in the bull ring the way a 3-5 should; will need to put on his “big boy pants” v. these

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1.   #6 – Reality Queen (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ IMHO the chart callers comment “Floated 5-wide 5/16” was more severe and cost this gal any chance from that point forward; longtime maiden with “Seconditis” (11:0-6-2) gives an honest effort every time she’s loaded into the gate
  2. #10 – Fort Love (5-2): MTO entry is a “house horse’ (Stronach Stables owned) and may be the first one under the care of trainer D. Capuano after first two starts resulted in runner-up efforts at WO
  3. #8 – Baccarat Fashion (10-1): Jock A. Suarez comes in just to ride this MTO entry who was runner-up on a sloppy Del surface in latest; candidate to take this field gate-to-wire with a clean break   

Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Confidently (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Love the work tab in preparation of debut of this KY-bred War Front gal whose half-brother is Uncle Mo and has two full, winning siblings
  2. #6 – Ujjayi (15-1): Wanted debut to be on dirt but stays for trainer E. McCellan (21% w/ 2 y.o.) and entices A. Wolfsont to travel to Lrl just to ride this Smarty Jones filly
  3. #8 – Blameitonthekiss (8-1): MTO entry is a FTS by Blame out of a Pulpit mare who hails form W. Potts barn 10% with FTS; 12% with 2 y.o.); like the most recent work going 5f in a minute and one   

Race 5

  1. #4 – Broad Expanse (6-1): Second start with blinkers, switches to bug W. Hamilton and drops to the bottom as connections are willing to cut bait with Curlin 3 y.o. gelding whose shown no interest in his four starts following gusty debut win at The Big T
  2. #6 – Ticker Tape Parade (8-5): Hasty drop after just one start against winners at $16kN2L level when sent off even money favorite which followed gate-to-wire romp at maiden bottom
  3. #7 – Zesty Zar (10-1): Lost all chance at the break when hesitated in first race after a brief layoff; consistently has picked up minor shares and faces a questionable group here

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – Discreet Deceit (9-2): Has been ITM in all four starts this year; race coming off the turf might benefit this gal as she’s 0 for 6 on the Lrl lawn and 11:4-2-1 on fast track with a SHOW effort in only off-track outing; steps up after winning latest v. N2x foes  
  2. #5 – Keep Your Distance (3-1): Typical need the lead type who will be pressured early and often; got a gift victory in an off the turf OC50k/b event facing just 3 rivals in first start after trainer K. Magee claim whose 7 for 16 with runners dropping off a win
  3. #3 – Daylight Ahead (10-1): Because someone needs to run third in a race with four runners, all who like to be on or near the lead; this one has had her fair share of traffic troubles of late when a rank outsider as far as Post Time odds 

Race 7 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #5 – O Dionysus (2-1): Turf or dirt this 4 y.o. gelding continues to blossom into one of the top MD-bred runners on this circuit; should get a nice stalking trip here 
  2. #4 – Unbridled Juan (5-2): Ran into a tough group at Del in latest after nearly stealing the G3 Dixie over a sloppy PIM oval; versatile running style gives him ability to bounce back in third start after layoff
  3. #2 – Phlash Phelps (8-5): Don’t be fooled into thinking he’s a notch below when running on the main track (6:0-1-2); work tab since last start in Apr. puts him on schedule for a big effort

Race 8

  1. #2 – D J’s Favorite (2-1):  NY-based trainer L. Rice recognizes this Union Rags filly loves running in the Land of Pleasant Living as she’s 2 for 2 at MD tracks, seeking the natural Hat Trick in second start with blinkers
  2. #1 – Hey Nikki (9-2): A perfect 2 for 2 as a 2 y.o. who saw the runner-up foes come back to win their next outings; has extensive work tab leading up to sophomore debut for T. Proctor/F. Lynch combo who’ve gotten to Winners’ Circle at a 26% clip over the past year
  3. #6 – Polite Pearl (7-2): Pen-based shipper is another seeking third straight victory (13th overall) in first start at Lrl as regular rider J. Tunon will get a leg up from trainer L. Strickler, Jr. (22% in ‘18) who is 0 for 2 with runners at Lrl

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #5 – Hey Mabel (7-2): Most likely candidate to earn her diploma in this off the turf maiden event… then again that was expected in her last 3 of 4 outings as Post Time favorite; dropping down a level might do the trick            
  2. #9 – Tidy Stripe (12-1): Should improve on her latest effort when stretched out from 5 ½ furlongs to one mile, getting the SHOW purse after a horrible start in an amateur jock race; gets the professional riding skills of J. Pimentel today
  3. #11 – Louise (12-1): Will draw attention with race on the main track; bridesmaid in last two and 3 of 6 career starts,  she’ll soon be labelled “Doesn’t want to win” in a handicappers mind; beaten by a next out winner in latest   

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday August 2nd at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 260 for 915 (28.42%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners…
    • R1: $4.20
    • R2: $15.20
    • R3: $6.80
    • R4: $2.20
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $10.00
    • R8: $3.60
    • R9: $3.00
  • Of the suggested multirace wagers, hit the R1-R2 DOUBLE which returned $29.80 on a $2 wager (total of $12 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (92:24-25-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Another Broad (4th race: 5-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) taken to rate while removed from the inside, commenced a run leaving the far turn, ranged up three wide outside the winner near the quarter pole, could not match strides soon after but continued willingly to be well clear of the rest, returned $2.60 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW (that is good).
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (89:12-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Mohkeef (5th race: 6-1 M/L; 6-5 PT) circled the turn three wide, was floated four deep in upper stretch, gained a brief lead late and just missed by a nose and returned $3.60 to PLACE and $3.00 to SHOW.

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