The GQ Approach – Laurel July 29

by | Jul 29, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: None
  • Super High 5$6,187
  • Late Pick 5: $6,638
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Troubled Trip in most recent race - Comments like “Steadied," “Checked," “Taken Up,” “5-6 wide throughout," etc. often point to a live horse that the bettors will overlook.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 /#2 – Zen’s Land (9-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 /#5 – Corvid (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 2, 5, 8 w/ 4, 6, 8 ($18.00)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 5: 2, 5, 6, 7 w/ 5, 6, 7 w/ 1, 7 w/ 5, 6 w/ 5, 6 ($48.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Cloudy, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – Fast/ Turf – Good

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #2 – Telling Warrior (6-1): Gave a credible account of himself on debut on the main track and may like the added ground on offer here; trainer Cortez, in search of first victory, adds blinks here
  2. #5 – Sonic Boom E Jet (9-5): Won the pace battle but lost the war in slop last out at MC 16k level; not a fan of the rise in tag after defeat, but that was a big effort
  3. #8 – Vineyard (7-2): Trainer Kobiskie loaded up the van to accompany Twixt winner Still There here from Kentucky, and the suspicion here is all of ’em are ready to fire, despite trainer’s poor record with debut maiden claimers

Race 2 is ON the turf

  1. #6 – Mr. Stream (5-1): Ran on willingly in last despite major early trip troubles; bug boy Rosado riding well
  2. #4 – Whiskey Seven (5-2): Ouch! Runner drops from 40k claiming to $7,500 here; trainer Rice is 34 percent on big dropdowns, and 4-for-7 at LRL
  3. #8 – If You Build It (3-1): Another Kobiskie runner who figures live following runner-up effort vs. similar in last

Race 3 

  1. #3 — Done Acting (5-2): Logical spot for Done Talking gelding, who broke his maiden around two turns
  2. #5 – Zap Cat (2-1): First off the claim for trainer Robb, and return to two-turn event a positive
  3. #2 — Haynes Fever (9-2): Two-back effort might have been good enough to get the money here

Race 4 is ON the turf

  1. #2 – Zen’s Land (9-2): Disastrous late trouble in last vs. similar; long chart comment notes he finished “full of run”
  2. #8 – Brickyard Kitten (5-2): Favorite has been thriving vs. similar and owns six wins at the trip
  3. #9 – Rye Patch (8-1): NJ-bred has some ability and last might be better than it looks: victor Irish Strait is a G3 winner and runner-up returned to take G3 Kent at DEL

Race 5 is ON the turf 

  1. #5 — Corvid (8-1): Drops to appropriate spot after tilting vs. better
  2. #2 – Thalia’s Song (3-1): Couldn’t get by despite winning trip in last
  3. #6– Grace Isabella (12-1): Has done best work at sprint distances

Race 6 

  1. #5 — Southern Wild (9-5): Cruised through N2L condition last out and note that trainer Rubley opts to protect this 5yo in this spot; 4-1-2-0 record on fast main track
  2. #7 – Super Buddy (5-1): Despite in-and-out form has flashed talent at times; away five months
  3. #6 – Greek Prince (20-1): After good start to 2017, Andreadakis trainee’s form went south as the year went on; makes ’18 bow here

Race 7 is ON the turf 

  1. #7 – Lunar Rille (3-1): In a bit tight late in respectable debut effort; if she’s like her pappy English Channel, she’s gonna love this two-turn grass trip
  2. #1 – Resonate (9-5): Drops out of decent effort vs. MSW company at DEL; winner returned to be fourth vs. N1X foes
  3. #10 – Playa Chica (10-1): Rubley trainee has been inching forward with each start

Race 8

  1. #6 – Waterhaven (6-1): Thrashed bottom-level maidens last out in first in a year, but note this one had previously beaten MSW foes at first asking (story here); closers ran two-three in his last, and both graduated next out
  2. #5 – Hollis (8-5): Yet another from the Kobiskie brigade, cruised to an easy win vs. MSW rivals at ELP
  3. #4 – Bronx Sandman (4-1): Makes third start of the year and exits a decent heat vs. lesser, but kinda feel like another half-furlong would be in this one’s best interests

Race 9 is ON the turf 

  1. #6 — Lonely Drifter (9-2): Return to debut effort wins this one; last better than it looks as he picked his way through traffic to run into show spot
  2. #5 – Palsy Walsy (3-1): Wouldn’t be a surprise to see this one run away and hide; trainer Delacour 31 percent moving maidens from MSW to MCL company, and this is a steep drop
  3. #4 – Dreaming of Dewey (7-2): Drops after an OK try, but note that the winner of last, who was also favored, entered the contest 0-for-27

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, July 28 at Laurel had four winners from 11 races (0 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD).
  • Top Selections are 253 for 897 (28.21%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners:
    • R1: $5.80
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $3.20
    • R8: $15.00
    • R9: $14.20
    • R10: xxx
    • R11: xxx
  • Did not hit any multi-race wagers.
  • BEST BET of the Day (90:24-23-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Ballard High (10th race: 2-1 M/L; 1.40-1 PT) sped to the early lead along the rail, held the advantage for the opening five furlongs, was then confronted and stuck with it to the three-sixteenths before fading, finishing third while beaten by six lengths, returning $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (87:12-18-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Layla Noor (4th race: 6-1 M/L; 2.20-1 PT) raced evenly in midpack throughout and finished sixth.

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