The GQ Approach – Laurel July 28

by | Jul 28, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $19,242
  • Super High 5none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Off-track Record - When the track gets listed as sloppy, muddy, or good, bettors often fail to realize many horses perform better or worse versus racing on a track labeled as “fast."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 10 /#2 – Ballard High (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 /#11 – Layla Noor (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 2, 3 w/ 3, 5, 9 ($18.00)
  • Race 4 – 50-cent Pick 4: 3, 7, 11 w/ 7, 8, 10 w/ 8, 9 w/ 1, 2, 3 ($27.00)
  • Race 10 – $2 Double: 1, 2 w/ 2, 9, 10 ($18.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly cloudy, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – Fast/ Turf – Soft

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #1 – Animalistic (9-2): Competed vs. better on debut, and return to main track could do the trick here
  2. #3 – No Honey Money (5-1): Looking for improved effort in second in Gonzalez barn
  3. #2 – Miss Gray (4-1): Blinks come off and trainer Magee legs up Gonzalez; duo have 25 percent strike rate at solid flat-bet profit

Race 2 is ON the turf

  1. #5 – Love’s Legend (6-1): Solid tries in last two, one on the lead and one rallying
  2. #3 – Meddybemps (7-2): Return to the grass a positive move here, and a return to better form would put 6yo mare right there
  3. #9 – Shifra Magician (4-1): Has been competitive multiple times vs. similar without winning, but unsighlty 3-for-39 ledger gives pause

Race 3 

  1. #2 — Team Tim (5-2): Solid tries in each of last two vs. better; of six to run back from runner-up effort two back, five finished in the money next out
  2. #5 – The Great Provider (8-5): Trainer Magee 32 percent first off the claim when switching from turf to dirt; two of three from two-back effort to run back have won
  3. #7 Jrock (10-1): Return from freshening didn’t go too well, but a bid of added ground and switch to rider Lynch (29% strike rate and monster flat-bet profit with trainer McMahon) may presage a return to form

Race 4 is ON the turf

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #11 – Layla Noor (6-1) ***: Nothing wrong with last out show effort in minor stake at DEL and shows three works in the interim, the last a sharp half-mile
  2. #3 – Antoaneta (5-1): Has won two straight and sports gaudy 3-2-0 record in six starts since begin claimed in 12/16; trainer Alsop with four straight wins to start his career
  3. #7 – Church Social (9-2): Wish she won more frequently, but this McGaughey trainee should find the going a little bit easier here than she did in G3 at AP when well behind the winner, G1 winner Daddy’s Lil Darling

Race 5 

  1. #10 — Lake Ponchatrain (5-1): Formful mare just missed last out in the Dashing Beauty at DEL; figures to like the added furlong on offer here at distance she’s never been worse than third in eight starts; ran third in 7f Shine Again over the strip in 9/17 at 37-1
  2. #7 – Bishop’s Pond (7-2): Solid Curlin mare enjoyed lone prior visit to LRL, winning minor stake easily in January; hasn’t run since March thrashing in G1 company but trainer Servis clicking at 33 percent this year
  3. #8– Tequilita (5-2): Bland effort in last in 9f Obeah; winner of that came back to be third in G2 DelCap; this miss can fire back at preferred 7f distance at which she owns two graded wins

Race 6 is ON the turf

  1. #8 — Bodega Bay (5-1): Trainer Farrior has stellar second-off-the-layoff record
  2. #9 – Jumpstartmyheart (6-1): Expecting improved effort in second of ’18
  3. #4 – Congrats Graduate (12-1): Added ground could be a positive for Congrats filly who’s been rallying at sprint distances; demand value in this wide-open heat

Race 7

  1. #1 – Majorie Mugs (3-1): Trainer Davis 3-for-6 off similar breaks; also gets you 1A Jah Grace, who should benefit from return to main track
  2. #3 – Value Added (7-5): Takes a drop in price in first off the claim for trainer Schoenthal
  3. #2 – Given Achance (6-1): Last was OK with trouble line

Race 8 is ON the turf 

  1. #5 – Floating By (9-2): Gave credible accounting of herself last out in first in Capuano barn, which was also first equipped with blinks and Lasix; can improve here in slightly easier spot
  2. #14 – Dangerous Woman (7-2): Good effort last out at long odds; short-priced winner had won N1X and competed well at N2X level; trainer Stephens 4-for-6 at LRL this year, but rider Karamanos must navigate dicey outer post
  3. #6 – Karma (4-1): Last was a mess after early troubles, but two prior were fine, winning a race from which six of eight to run back finished in the money next out and then running second to threepeat winner

Race 9

  1. #2 — Gimme Kimmy (3-1): Two of three career wins came at this 7f trip
  2. #7 – Crookit (6-1): Fought on willingly in last against slightly better group
  3. #1 – Senora de Lujan (3-1): Nice step forward in last in second off a freshening

Race 10

  1. *** BEST BET #2 — Ballard High (2-1) ***: One of two trainer Rice ships down for this event; last around two turns wasn’t much to look at, but return to one-turn distance a positive, and go-to local pilot Karamanos picks this one
  2. #1 – Chirping (9-2): Rallied smartly for the show spot in last and can improve in second off the bench with added ground
  3. #7 – C C Rider (7-2): Last in $100k Pegasus was a trainwreck but shows four works since, most recently a bullet five-eighths; rider Cintron and trainer Matz have done good work together

Race 11 is ON the turf 

  1. #10 — Storm Diva (9-2): Can improve in third career start after showing signs of life vs. better in last
  2. #9 – Starship Yenta (5-1): Blinks come off; first turf start, three back, was credible vs. better
  3. #2 – Calla Luna (3-1): Trainer Capuano is 20 percent with debut maiden claiming types, and this isn’t much of a field to tackle

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, July 28 at Laurel had eight winners from nine races (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD).
  • Top Selections are 253 for 886 (28.56%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners:
    • R1: $12.40
    • R2: $3.00
    • R3: $3.60
    • R4: $3.40
    • R5: $3.20
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $7.20
    • R8: $6.20
    • R9: $4.20
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race 7 Pick 3, which returned $20.65 for a 50-cent wager (wager cost: $9) and the race 8 Double, which returned $14.20 for a $2 wager (wager cost: $18).
  • BEST BET of the Day (89:24-23-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Enterprise Value (9th race: 3-1 M/L; 1.10-1 PT) sped to the early lead and romped home by 10 1/2 lengths to win, returning $4.20 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE, and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (86:12-18-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Tam O’Shanter (8th race: 6-1 M/L; 5.10-1 PT) was not far off the early pace while wide on the course but did not kick on, finishing fifth, about six lengths behind winner Mr. Brix.

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