The GQ Approach – Laurel July 22

by | Jul 22, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $11,332
  • Super High 5none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First Time Starter - A decently-bred horse from a good barn showing a consistent (every 6-7 days) work pattern with the last one from the gate can be a good bet.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 /#4 – Deep Red (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 10 /#7 – Broad Expanse (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 7 – 50-cent Pick 4: 6, 8, 9 w/ 3, 6, 7 w/ 1, 4 w/ 5, 7, 8 ($27.00)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 1, 4 w/ 5, 7, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Scattered thunderstorms throughout the afternoon, high in the upper 70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – Sloppy/ Turf – Off
    • NOTE: All races handicapped for dirt only
    • Picks updated at 1:00 p.m. to reflect late scratches.

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is off the turf

  1. #9 – Pennyforyrthoughts (4-1): Four-year-old training well enough towards debut here, and trainer Trombetta can win first out of the box
  2. #4 – True Cat (6-1): Main-track only entrant gave credible effort last out in the slop
  3. #2 – Scoop N Nailz (8-1): Modestly bred sort has been training forwardly

Race 2

  1. #7 – Polarization (3-1): Clearly better sprinting and rises here off a victory
  2. #1 – La Contessa (9-5): Led throughout to post only victory, but presence of other speed types a problem; jock-trainer combo a positive
  3. #6 – Shecor (8-1): Closing sort might get pace scenario to his liking; steadied out of it past the half-mile marker in last but stuck with it to the end, and bug boy Hamilton, who’s won on him previously, returns

Race 3 is off the turf

  1. #10 – In Him With Him (9-2): One of four from last to run back has won; has a couple wins with Karamanos in the irons and catches a modest group here
  2. #2 – Publishanditerate (6-1): This one’s been away a year after Eppler claim; note she chooses to protect it in this spot, and mile work suggests she’s aiming for him to fire here
  3. #7 King Koa (9-5): First off the claim for trainer Ness, who’s 22 percent in that situation; gave this guy a bit of time after late May claim, and last work looks like he’s ready

Race 4

  1. #4 – Boss Boss (3-1): Young trainer Trimble’s been doing well since striking out on her own; solid work tab for this debut runner
  2. #6 – Blue Danube (10-1): Breeding is pretty fancy on this debut runner: by top sire Awesome Again, this is the first foal out a Grade 2-winning A. P. Indy mare; trainer Corrales 1-for-16 with debut maiden special weight runners
  3. #2 – Come Sundown (2-1): Great Notion gelding is a half to stakes winner Everything Lovely

Race 5 is off the turf; it is an amateur riders race

  1. #6 — Stillsexyatsixty (7-2): Improved effort in last even with a trouble line
  2. #11 – Janelle Dreams (3-1): Nothing wrong with recent form, but outer post poses a challenge for amateur jock: to avoid getting hung out in the parking lot without using too much horse too early
  3. #4– Whenallelsefails (12-1): Bit of belated action in last in season debut; added ground should help

Race 6

  1. #3 — Chinquapin (9-5): Has kept better company than these; had some trouble in last when steadied late; will try to get stalk-and-pounce trip here
  2. #1 – Poplar Avenue (7-5): Set fast early pace before stopping in last; looks like main speed here from rail post with bug boy up, and slight shortening of distance a positive
  3. #2 – Meo Desperado (6-1): Didn’t show much in last in first after freshening but has solid efforts to run back to; takes appropriate drop here

Race 7 is off the turf

  1. #6 – Sir Orinoco (7-2): Impressive effort in last in first try in almost a year; MTO entrant loves the trip, has won two straight vs. similar
  2. #8 – Fifty (3-1): Gotta respect anything Linda Rice sends out at LRL, and this one’s been gelded since last — but winner of last, at MTH, was jumping up off of win vs. maiden claimers; beware short odds here
  3. #2 – Arch Revenge (6-1): Toss the turf try and this looks like a 10k horse on the main track — just about fitting in this spot

Race 8 

  1. #7 – Bye Bye Bertie (9-2): Good work tab for runner making her debut; trainer Smith has to shake out of doldrums sooner or later
  2. #3 – Helen (9-5): Ran a big one to just miss on debut after exhibiting unruly behavior at the gate, but foes from that day are 0-for-5 in their follow-ups; not a fan of raising a horse off a defeat
  3. #6 – Flatter Me Owen (3-1): Kinda wonder if this Flatter filly will want more ground than 5f on offer here; work tab showing three bullets

Race 9

  1. *** BEST BET #4 – Deep Red (2-1) ***: First after freshening for this Algorithms filly, an astute claim for trainer Damon Dilodovico; fifth-place finisher from last took a tougher Md-bred allowance than this one on 7/21
  2. #1 – Margie’s Money (8-1): Showed a new dimension in last when running into the pace to prevail against lesser; rivals from that day are 4-0-2-1 in follow-ups; can move forward in third of ’18
  3. #7 – Hot Friesia (8-1): Rider Gomez picks this one over #6; Friesan Fire filly just missed vs. lesser in last

Race 10

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #7 — Broad Expanse (10-1) ***: Blinks on in third of the year for Curlin gelding who’s lightly raced enough to retain some upside
  2. #8 – Ticker Tape Parade (8-5): Two to run back from his maiden score last out have won and run second; figures to lead or be just off the speed early
  3. #5 – Bad Angle Burke (5-1): First off the claim for trainer McMahon; trainer and jockey Lynch click at 30 percent with a huge flat-bet profit

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, July 21 at Laurel had six winners from nine races (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD). In two races, all of our selections were scratched as a result of the late surface switch taking all but the first off the turf.
  • Top Selections are 244 for 858 (28.44%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners:
    • R1: $17.00
    • R2: $4.40
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $16.60
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: NA (all selections scratched)
    • R7: $17.40
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $13.20
    • R10: $11.00
    • R11: NA (all selections scratched)
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race one daily double, which returned $44.80 on a $2 wager (total of $18 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (87:22-23-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Bungalow (5th race: 5-2 M/L; 8-5 PT) circled the turn, loomed a threat, but flattened out while easily securing the place, returning $3.60 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (85:12-18-10; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Coop Tries Harder (4th race: 8-1 M/L; 7.30-1 PT) attended the pace while three wide, took control in the lane, widening the advantage past the furlong grounds, and held sway to win by 1 1/2 lengths, returning $16.60 to WIN, $6.40 to PLACE and $3.60 to SHOW.

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