The GQ Approach – Laurel July 21

by | Jul 21, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $8,795
  • Super High 5: $754
  • Late Pick 5: $5,572
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 /#7 – Bungalow (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 /#8 – Coop Tries Harder (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 1, 2, 10 w/ 2, 5, 8 ($18)
  • Race 2 – 50-cent Pick 4: 2, 5, 8 w/ 1, 5, 6 w/ 5, 8, 9 w/ 4, 7 ($27.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Rain, high in the 70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM (as of 11:00 a.m.)

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #10 – Love You Much (4-1): Drops off credible try vs. better; jockey Centeno, who won on him two back, returns
  2. #2 – Fly E Dubai (8-1): Nothing wrong with last; has had issues at the start in last two, and straightening them out could be big plus here
  3. #1 – Censure (9-2): Came from the clouds going a mile to win last out but will need to be more involved early to have a a chance here; runner owns two wins at the trip

Race 2

  1. #2 – Crazed (9-5): Drops after a middling debut; trainer Pecoraro adds Lasix and blinkers for second outing, and runner shows a steady interim work tab
  2. #8 – Shelly Island (4-1): Saw killer group on debut, including next-out Tremont winner Our Braintrust
  3. #5 – Odds R Against Us (3-1): Trainer Robb has long history of success with juveniles

Race 3 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #5 – Munificent (9-2): Two that she bested last out both came back to win follow-ups; drawn outside other speed players, and trainer Eppler to leg up go-to rider Karamanos
  2. #1 – Boos (3-1): Has been showing gradually improving form and wheels back just a week after last try; trainer Goldberg 1-for-3 on such short rest
  3. #6 Rocky Policy (9-5): Runner has kept better company and makes third start of the season – both positives; but hard to accept short odds on a runner that’s 0-for-12 on the turf and 0-for-5 at the track

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #8 – Coop Tries Harder (8-1) ***: Trainer Cibelli has handled this runner like one with talent; drops in for lowest level yet, while gelded and wearing blinks for the first time in second off freshening
  2. #5 – Inchesky (6-1): Gave a respectable accounting of himself vs. better last out; lightly raced sort owns the right to improve
  3. #9 – Rule Yourself (8-1): Morley trainee well spotted after breaking maiden for $40k, and added ground may help

Race 5

  1. *** BEST BET #7 — Bungalow (5-2) ***: Trainer Gonzalez is 12-for-19 in last two years when moving low-level claimers from turf to dirt; note gaudy jock-trainer stats
  2. #4 – Double Naught Spy (2-1): Took plenty of kickback when stuck down inside on sloppy strip in last but still ran on when clear; sophomore owns three wins in five starts
  3. #2– Fifties Music (8-1): Drops to level where he just missed three back; 5-year-old not too fond of winning, though

Race 6 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #7 — Tapit High (6-1): Half-bro to a multiple graded stakes-placed runner; three to run back from last sport record of 3-2-1-0
  2. #8 – Admiration (5-2): Led a long way before giving it up in last; two from that contest won in follow-ups
  3. #4 – Artie’s Cozy (9-2): Turfy breeding and high-end connections make this one a player in first out of the box

Race 7

  1. #6 – Ghoul’s Night Out (3-1): Trying to beat the even-money chalk with this Ham Smith trainee; switches to able veteran Cintron in the irons, but trainer’s been chilly during current LRL meet (1-for-39)
  2. #3 – Victory Rally (1-1): Just missed two back vs. similar and has been running competitively with open two-other-than horses; note two-length defeat to subsequent G1 winner Salty back in March; blinks go on
  3. #5 – Pearl Gem (6-1): Saw a decent crew when fourth in last try at this level; added ground may aid cause

Race 8 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #6 – Strike (6-1): Set moderate pace and held on in maiden-breaker last out; can move forward in second start of sophomore campaign (and just third overall); winning jock Vargas back in irons
  2. #8 – Chateau de Vizille (8-1): Legendary Hall of Fame trainer King T. Leatherbury guns for win number 6,500 with runner who scored last out
  3. #5 – Compagno (7-2): Should find the competition here quite a bit easier than vs. N1X foes at BEL in last

Race 9 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #1 – Clever Triad (3-1): Merryman trainee set fast pace en route to N1X score; worse than third just once in seven starts, and that after traffic trouble
  2. #5 – Blackjack Baby (9-2): Closing sort did his thing in last in first in five months but couldn’t get close to winner who repeated vs. better; can be sharper in second off the bench, and Prado remains aboard
  3. #3 – My Enigma (8-1): Expected less-than-firm turf moves up veteran whose two best efforts on the page came on good and yielding surfaces

Race 10

  1. #3 — Sandy Lane (6-1): Takes long drop from MSW company here; trainer Corrales added Lasix and blinks last time, and runner showed a bit of late action; training well enough in the interim and like to see Hall of Famer Prado remain up
  2. #1 – Allthewrongreasons (8-5): Drops a half-step off the claim for trainer Mark Reid; was favored in last at CD but gave just an even effort
  3. #5 – Sonic Boom E Jet (2-1): Another taking a big drop, this one from MC 40k level; go-to rider Torres heads to PRX today, so trainer legs up bug boy Quiles

Race 11 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #3 – The Tortoise (2-1): Rallied to lead vs. similar two back before settling for second; Rubley barn hot right now
  2. #10 – Sippin’onbubbles (8-1): Leatherman trainee’s two wins came at 23-1, 52-1 — on good turf; give in the green moves him up
  3. #5 – Maru’s Raven (6-1): Good try in last and only runner from that race to run back scored next out; veteran Cintron in the irons is solid

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, July 20 at Laurel had 4 winners from the 10-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD).
  • Top Selections are 241 for 849 (28.38%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners:
    • R1: $3.80
    • R2: $11.60
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $7.20
    • R5: $6.00
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race one daily double, which returned $29.20 on a $2 wager (total of $18 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (86:22-22-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Sexyama (3rd race: 5-2 M/L; 7-10 PT) pressed the pace from the three-path, briefly cleared to the lead in upper stretch, was no match for the winner but easily held the place spot, returning $2.60 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (84:11-18-10; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Contrarity (8th race: 8-1 M/L; 7.10-1 PT) set the pace, shook clear in mid-stretch, could not contain the winner but held the place, returning $9.40 to PLACE and $4.60 to SHOW.

Check out...