The GQ Approach – Laurel July 20

by | Jul 20, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $7,292
  • Super High 5: None
  • Late Pick 5: None
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 /#2 – Sexyama (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 /#6 – Contrarity (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 3, 4, 5 w/ 1, 6, 8 ($18)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 5 w/ 3, 5, 6 w/ 1, 9, 11 ($9.00)
  • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick 4: 5, 7, 13 w/ 1, 6, 7 w/ 7, 8 w/ 4, 9, 10 ($27)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly cloudy, high of 84
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #5 – Vincent Van Gogo (3-1): Second vs. similar in last and likely to get winning trip here; jock chooses this one over #8
  2. #4 – Any Darn Day (6-1): Good try in first on turf, first around two turns
  3. #3 – Mr. Discretionary (8-5): Winner of last returned to be second vs. N1X foes; has kept better company

Race 2

  1. #6 – Final Forum (7-2): Gave a good accounting of himself when put in vs. better first off the claim; finds more congenial spot here and owns five wins at the trip
  2. #8 – Tam Tam Attack (3-1): Crushed lesser in last; trainer Maldonado productive first off the claim
  3. #1 – Connemara Coast (6-1): Back class makes this one a player in this spot for trainer Lake

Race 3 is ON THE TURF 

  1. *** BEST BET #2 – Sexyama (5-2) ***: Not sure what she was running against — all five to run back have been up the track in their follow-ups — but that was still a good effort for this Cairo Prince filly after bearing out and bumping at the break; clean getaway here helps cause
  2. #5 – Skyphos (6-1): Full sis to graded stakes winner Bucchero, who’s earned over $800k and ran second in a stake on debut; work tab good enough
  3. #7 Varenka (5-1): Six of seven sibs to race have earned at least $90k, including stake winner Lift Up, who’s five-for-five on the lawn

Race 4 

  1. #5 – Clearly Super (4-1): Enters with two straight wins; trainer O’Dwyer 2-for-14 with similarly short intervals between races
  2. #6 – Don’t Poke the Cat (9-2): Robin Graham trainee was put up via DQ in last after fouling that didn’t involve him removed the winner; second after a bit of a freshening and like to see Prado remain up
  3. #3 – Royal Crusader (4-1): Not sure what to make of two-back race, when he backed out readily, but prior dirt form puts him in the mix here

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 Beltway Bob (6-1): Closing sort won in this condition last out, can repeat here
  2. #9 – Daniel Le Deux (9-2): Didn’t miss by much in season debut and can move forward in second off the bench
  3. #1 – King of All Media (4-1): Big drop from open $25k claimers at CD to this spot, and trainer Mark Reid gets to protect him here

Race 6 

  1. #3 — Lost On the Stairs (5-2): Enters with three straight wins vs. lifetime and conditioned foes; one of three from last to run back won in follow-up
  2. #7 – Springtime Wind (6-1): Gets back to preferred surface
  3. #2 – Sazerac Girl (7-2): Infrequent winner drops in class and shifts to main track; even win machine trainer Patterson hasn’t been able to get this mare to the winners circle

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #13 – Bye Bye Blues (7-2): Speedy type ran a good one in first turf try; loses blinks and draws outside other speed players, suggesting a stalk-and-pounce trip might be the plan
  2. #5 – War Queen (7-2): Sheppard trainee’s run at distances from 1 mile to 2 1/8 miles this year, now finds way to short sprint; note veteran jock Pino lands here 
  3. #7 – Sister Says (5-2): Just missed vs. similar two back, and nothing wrong with fourth-place finish in Gilpin; runner-up returned a winner 

Race 8 

  1. ***LONGSHOT PLAY #6 – Contrarity (8-1) ***: Sophomore kept good company as a juvenile; can move forward in second of the season, and major drop may help her find company that fits her better
  2. #7 – Joyful Noise (3-1): Dialing back to short sprint and drop in class both point to improved effort; jockey Boyce returns and has a couple of runner-up efforts with this one
  3. #1 – Scoreearlyandoften (6-1): First try at the level was solid; note that jockey Boyce chooses #7 here over this runner

Race 9

  1. #8 – Pete’s Play Call (3-5): Hard to see a scenario where this one gets beat; ran competitively behind graded stakes sorts in last two, including G3 Maryland Sprint winner Switzerland
  2. #7 – Expedited Vision (6-1): Won in lone dirt try last June; return to action last out was a disappointment at 3-2 odds, but Schoenthal trainee shows a couple of works in the interim, and good to see rider Russell stick around
  3. #1/1A – Cheese On/In Arrears (10-1): Of this Cal Lynch-trained duo, particularly like the 1A In Arrears, who won an open allowance two back and then was beaten less than two in an N2X; winner returned second at higher level

Race 10 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #9 — Lilibet (4-1): Makes a two-level drop to MC $25k; last time Rubley trainee faced claiming rivals, she missed by a neck
  2. #10 – Full Faith (12-1): In first try in nearly two years, Jimmy Day trainee rallied to the lead at the eighth before tiring; a little bit tighter here, and with a more patient ride, she could stir things up
  3. #4 – Astrea (8-1): Solid try last out sprinting, and breeding suggests added ground could be a plus (sire Astrology was third in the Preakness); blinks go on

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, July 13 at Laurel had 9 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD).
  • Top Selections are 240 for 839 (28.61%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners:
    • R1: $7.80
    • R2: $6.80
    • R3: $4.60
    • R4: $6.20
    • R5: $9.80
    • R6: $6.00
    • R7: $7.40
    • R8: $4.80
    • R9: XXX
    • R10: $4.60
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race one daily double, which returned $27.80 on a $2 wager (total of $18 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (86:22-21-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Stamped (5th race: 2-1 M/L; 8-5 PT) was three-wide on both turns, bid between in the lane, but fell a half-length short and settled for the runner-up spot, returning $3.00 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (84:11-17-10; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Speed Gracer (9th race: 9-2 M/L; 3.90-1 PT) raced along the rail and was done on the far turn, finishing sixth.

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