The GQ Approach – Laurel July 15

by | Jul 15, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $5,818
  • Super High 5: $856
  • Late Pick 5: $38,096
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Subtle Class Drop - Some class drops -- e.g. from OPEN Claiming to Conditional Claiming for same Tag/Amount -- are bigger than they look, and horses making that move may hold a distinct advantage over their rivals.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 /#5 – Stamped (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 /#3 – Speed Gracer (9-2)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 1, 9, 10 w/ 1, 2, 6 ($18)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5 2, 3, 8 w/ 1, 5, 6 w/ 1, 11 w/ 3, 7, 9 w/ 3, 4 ($54)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly cloudy, high of 83
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #1 – Posse Dreamin (3-1): Has bested similar; other half of entry scratches
  2. #9 – Not a Chance (7-2): Speedster led a long way vs. similar before settling for second; one next-out winner from that tilt; presence of other speed complicates matters
  3. #10 – Uno Emayo (4-1): Strangely handled runner finished ’17 season with good try vs. better at AQU; might get a pace to run at here, and trainer RudyRod 22% at LRL

Race 2

  1. #1 – Louise (2-1): Has done best work at 7f; might be ready to fire best shot in here
  2. #2 – Towson (8-1): Recent form not enticing, but note this runner finished ahead of favored #6 back in April; curious to see rider Gomez land here, while Wes Hamilton, who rode this one five straight, lands on the horse Gomez rode last two (#5)
  3. #6 – Gingeresk (8-5): Two turf tries weren’t the answer, and now trainer Robb goes with steep drop; presence of choosy veteran Pino worth noting

Race 3 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #5 – He’s One Wild Dude (9-2): No double-take necessary: that really is a 1 1/2-mile turf allowance at Laurel! Finished ’17 with three straight wins, commenced ’18 with good second vs. runner who repeated next out
  2. #1 – Not in Charge (2-1): Deserving fave has run big ones going 10 furlongs; recent form OK, and winner of last ran third in G3 Kent on Saturday; added ground on offer a big plus
  3. #4 Douglas Road (5-2): Lightly raced sort fits here and owns right to improve

Race 4 

  1. #6 – Dangerous Dan (9-2): Third off the layoff for Gonzalez trainee; trainer-jock combo has been lethal
  2. #2 – Fusion Xchange (2-1): In a field of slow horses with major flaws, the relatively less slow horse with major flaws gets the nod; long break and precipitous drop both red flags — but trainer Campbell claimed this one for $10k, so drop to $5k not perhaps as bad as it looks
  3. #7 – Change Is Coming (12-1): Broke his maiden at the trip, finds proper spot here; hasn’t beaten a horse since breaking maiden

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** BEST BET #5 – Stamped (2-1) ***: Trouble line in last for Proctor trainee, who finds lowest level yet 
  2. #8 – Stomping Ground (12-1): Trainer Gaudet 5-for-19 with debut maiden claimers, finds manageable group here
  3. #4 – Sadler Bay (9-2): Rallied to lead leaving the furlong grounds in last before getting caught; jock upgrade a plus

Race 6 

  1. #3 — Moonlight Shadow (3-1): Beat open allowance types in last, and one of those to run back has won; caught tough group at PIM when third; will need pace to materialize
  2. #2 – Saratoga Bob (3-1): Easy win in last vs. open allowance foes; might get first run on early pace types
  3. #8 – Crouchelli (15-1): Demonstrated late action in last, and addition of bug boy W. Hamilton in the irons suggests connex want this one a bit more engaged early before unleashing late run

Race 7

  1. #6 – Greely’s Striker (7-2): Crushed similar in latest for third straight score and ran like stretch-out shouldn’t be an issue; note that rider from last moves to #7 here
  2. #1 – Amanda’s Best (7-2): Formful sort has been competing with success vs. similar at PEN; trainer Kreiser 21% at LRL in last five years
  3. #5 – Expect Indy (3-1): Has been in the money three of four at trip

Race 8 

  1. #11 – Call Me Jelly Roll (7-2): Trainer Farrior sports a record of 9-3-2-2 with debut maiden claimers; note bullet work on 7/1
  2. #1 – Barbsgray Lion (12-1): Ought to find the going a bit easier here in MCL company, and addition of blinks and bug boy should have this one more involved early
  3. #10 – Sweet Home Dixie (8-1): Smith brothers have teamed up to good effect previously

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Speed Gracer (9-2) ***: No shame in finishing behind top pair in Ned Evans S. and can improve here
  2. #9 – Brucarita (7-2): Has been keeping better company; two-back winner returned to take a stake, then run third vs. G3 rivals; will have to navigate trip from outer post
  3. #7 – Conquest See Ya (4-1): Rallied into lead before failing late in last vs. similar; can make amends here

Race 10 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #3 — Gotham Gala (9-2): Useful debut for this Delacour trainee, who’ll get Lasix for the first time here; trainer Delacour an absolute win machine
  2. #4 – More Fun Again (2-1): Proctor trainee has run competitively vs. better and can improve in second off freshening
  3. #2 – Benevida (6-1): Solid effort in last at long odds in what was her turf bow; winner returned to be second a nose vs. N1X rivals

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, July 13 at Laurel had 6 winners from the 11-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.60 (2nd), $3.40 (4th), $6.80 (6th), $15.60 (7th), $5.00 (9th), and $8.20 (10th). Top Selections are 237 for 829 (28.59%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race one daily double, which returned $24 on a $2 wager (total of $12 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (85:22-21-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Majestic Reason (8th race: 9-5 M/L; 1.70-1 PT) was five and six wide most of the way while in mid-pack before rallying mildly to earn the place, returning $4.00 to PLACE and $3.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (83:11-17-10; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Proudly (6th race: 6-1 M/L; 3.80-1 PT) lagged well back, swung wide for the drive, and had belated action to rally for for fifth while never a threat.

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