The GQ Approach – Laurel July 14

by | Jul 14, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,638
  • Super High 5: None
  • Late Pick 5: $9,576
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey/Trainer Combo - Take advantage of the statistics provided with the Past Performances, which give these stats for the current meet and over the past year; some trainer and jocks win at inordinately high rates.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 /#7 – Majestic Reason (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#3 – Proudly (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 2, 6, 9 w/ 1, 5, 6 ($18)
  • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick-5 5, 8 w/ 7, 9 w/ 4, 8, 10 w/ 1, 4, 6 w/ 1, 7 ($36)
  • Race 10 – $2 Double 4, 6 w/ 1, 7, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny, high of 90
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd, 4th, 6th, 9th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 

  1. #6 – Minor Legend (9-2): Even effort in last but bit of added ground may help; good effort two-back behind repeat winner
  2. #2 – Jifquick (20-1): Good rally to just miss two back in most recent try on fast main track
  3. #9 – Enasoit (4-1): Trainer’s patience has rather abruptly expired as this one drops from allowance company to bottom claiming in one fell swoop; blinks go on; runner winless in five main-track tries

Race 2

  1. #5 – Grand River (9-2): Big effort on debut when rushing to a three-length lead before just failing; addition of Lasix a positive
  2. #1/1a – Thatwouldbegrand/Come Sundown (3-1): One of these Dale Capuano trainees likely to scratch here as both have same jock named; have been working in company and Capuano 19 percent with firsters; Come Sundown a half to stake winner Everything Lovely
  3. #6 – Absolved (2-1): Makes third start in 22 days, ran a half-length behind #5 in here on debut; jock for first two lands elsewhere on #3

Race 3 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #10 – Minister’s Strike (4-1): Honestly the #1 might be the most likely winner, but better value on offer here; closer was foiled in last by slow pace, but three of four to run back have run one-two
  2. #1 – Laythatpistoldown (9-5): Navarro shipper drops from $32k level; cutback from 10 furlong trip a positive here
  3. #8 Ten Hut (10-1): Has competed vs. similar on the main track; in most recent turf try two back, never really had anywhere to go because of traffic; can improve here

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Virginia Fable (8-5): That wasn’t a bad group in the Va-bred Gilpin last and this one ran big, only to be second to horse who bested him in prior; can graduate here
  2. #8 – Reality Queen (9-2): Third attempt to get this miss sprinting on the turf finally succeeded last out after two rainouts, and she responded well, running second after dueling with the winner, finishing six clear of show horse
  3. #5 – Miminegash (20-1): Hasn’t shown much on the main track to date, but this Paynter filly is a half to Judy the Beauty who was an absolute killer on synthetic and won a race on the turf in France

Race 5

  1. #2 – Bonus Points (8-5): Enjoy the chalk! There was no pace at all in front of him in last, but defending Maryland Million Classic champ surged to a win all the same, can repeat vs. these
  2. #3 – Warrioroftheroses (4-1): 9yo has shown a new dimension stalking the pace with some success of late, but in this one he might be loose on the lead; has five wins at the trip
  3. #5 – Southside Warrior (5-1): Ran second to #2 in Md. Million Classic; must find better form after freshening

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #3 – Proudly (6-1) ***: Good effort in last in season debut, and winner returned to run second at N3L level; shows a couple of works in the interim
  2. #2 – Darcy Mae (5-2): Fairly rugged group in Lyphard Stk., should appreciate return to level where she just missed two back, and winner and show horse won follow-ups; Rubley barn’s been clicking
  3. #8 – Lulu’s On the Move (12-1): Sluggish start in last but stuck with it to the end; broke maiden at 40k level

Race 7

  1. #5 – Hayne’s Fever (7-5): Just missed against similar at PEN in last after rallying to the lead; trainer Kulp 20 percent on less than 10 days’ rest; regular pilot comes in for the mount
  2. #8 – Crazy Wild Bill (7-2): Figures to be loose on the lead and take ’em as far as he can on the stretchout
  3. #2 – Patriot Saint (6-1): Added ground, modest group of rivals figure to aid grinding style

Race 8 

  1. *** BEST BET #7 – Majestic Reason (9-5) ***: Flashy score on debut for this Majestic Warrior filly, who shows a couple of solid works since; no next-out winners from maiden breaker, but those to run back have a record of 4-0-2-2
  2. #9 – Heelstothesky (8-1): Return to the main track a positive for this Smarty Jones filly; nothing wrong with two back effort when fourth behind a couple of tough ones in the New Start
  3. #3 – Lady by Choice (2-1): Shanghai Bobby filly loves her some LRL; only defeat in three local tries came when stumbling and losing jock

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Brickyard Kitten (9-5): Formful sort came home fast in last to best similar; chink in armor might be unsightly 1-for-10 ledger at the trip
  2. #8 – Feel Proud (9-2): Jock switch on a runner who’d looked solid on turf until last; profitable claim came win here if he finds his better form
  3. #10 – Heiko (6-1): Solid season debut when dusting $10k claimers at PEN, two of whom came back to win; has plenty of early lick and drawn outside other speed

Race 10 

  1. #4 — Chief of Staff (5-1): $32k claim paid quick dividends when prevailing at N2X level, will look to double up here; should be able to find stalking spot to reel in early speed types
  2. #6 – Midtowncharlybrown (9-2): Owns four wins at the trip and returns to the main track after dubious turf try; has done best work on the engine early, but other speed in here complicates matters
  3. #1 – Fire Mission (5-2): One of four runners trainer Navarro has entered at LRL this weekend; closing sort will be running late, and #5 will be active early; would find favoritism easier to accept on this one if he hadn’t just been bested twice by N2X runners at MTH

Race 11 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 — Dorcas Carey (5-2): Drops back to level at which she has run second twice, may wire this group
  2. #1/1a — Nightmare/Holiday Hopes (2-1): Nightmare has competed vs. similar, while Holiday Hopes drops from better level; both figure to be players in here
  3. #8 – Just Say Lucky (20-1): Breeding suggest she could take to the green as dam did best work on it, sire was a multiple G1 winner on synthetic

 

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, July 13 at Laurel had 5 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $9.40 (1st race), $4.40 (2nd), $7.20 (5th), $10.60 (6th) and $3.40 (8th). Top Selections are 235 for 818 (28.73%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race one daily double, which returned $24 on a $2 wager (total of $12 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (84:22-20-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Chattel (8th race: 7-5 M/L; 7-10 PT) pressed the pace outside, moved clear leaving the far turn, opened a clear advantage and held firm to win by 1 1/2 lengths, returning $3.40 to WIN, $2.80 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (82:11-17-10; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Eye of the Wildcat (10th race: 12-1 M/L; 12-1 PT) lacked speed early, saved ground on the turn, but could make no impact in the lane, finishing sixth.

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