The GQ Approach – Laurel July 7

by | Jul 7, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $1,031
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey/Trainer Combo - Take advantage of the statistics provided with the Past Performances, which give these stats for the current meet and over the past year; some trainer and jocks win at inordinately high rates.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 1 /#1 – Hey Mabel (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#7 – He’s a Pussycat (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 1, 3, 4 w/ 1, 3 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3 1, 3, 6 w/ 1, 6, 8 w/ 2, 3, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick-5  2, 11 w/ 4, 7 w/ 1, 8 w/ 2, 4, 9 w/ 4, 6, 8 ($36)
  • Race 10 – $2 Double 2, 4, 9 w/ 6, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Hey Mabel (7-2): *** BEST BET *** Has a bad case of Seconditis this year, being the bridesmaid in all four ’18 starts, the latest when sent off the lukewarm 5-2 favorite but had traffic troubles at three difference points in the race; if F. Boyce negotiates a clean trip this filly will be a maiden no more
  2. #4 – Lill Mave (3-1): Ran a winning race two back at Pim in fifth career start, all on turf but got beat by a late charging 17-1 who freaked; video of last effort on Bel turf going 1/16th further looked better than it does on paper
  3. #3 – War Tweet (5-1): Sheds the blinkers after 4 outings with them failing to be ITM while only previous turf starts without them yielded SHOW and runner-up efforts; third start after layoff

Race 2

  1. #1 – Mila Jane (9-5): Goes for the natural Hat Trick but will need to get into fourth-gear quicker than usual as she cuts back from middle distance to 5 ½ furlongs for the firsts time in 14th career start
  2. #3 – Dad’s City Girl (7-2): Has recovered nicely from getting cooked early three back in only OTB finish in her past 11 outings; this ATM appears to have learned to relax early under J.D. Acosta to save some energy for the final furlong
  3. #2 – Fanniebellefleming (8-1): Scratched yesterday out of an easier turf event though going long; picks up V. Carrasco while dropping in for lowest tag in tenth career start

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Holy Scat (5-1): Third start after layoff; faced a tough group of Alw7500s after making it look easy in first off the bench in this same open $7,500 event over the Pim turf; looks to break an 0 for 11 on the Lrl lawn
  2. #6 – Sugar Cane Girl (3-1): Huge effort on home track (Pen) in first start in over 18-months, even though she “hung” late, equaled her best turf BRIS# (79); capable of improving and will have to to get all the marbles here; trainer T. Kreiser ships to win (19:7-1-1 in the past year at Lrl)
  3. #3 – Emelina (9-2): Knows only one way to win… from gate-to-wire; meets a group that lacks the “need the lead” mentality, so with S. Russell back in the irons, maybe he can nurse this 8-year-old mare through soft, early fractions and hold off the Closers

Race 4

  1. #6 – Ms. Picadilly (8-1): Looking like lone speed who was compromised a bit at the start then rushed to get her usual spot towards the front under Panamian HOF rider A. Cortez who knows how to get his mounts to the lead, while setting blistering early fractions; should get a breather to seal the deal late for a price
  2. #1 – Miss Gray (7-2): Exits a pair of fifth-place turf efforts while on her way to the bottom maiden ranks where she was claimed by an outfit who wants to win at any cost; switch back to dirt could be the winning move
  3. #8 – Lemon Avocado (5-1): Purchased as a yearling for $100k by deep pockets partnership (West Point Tbreds) who appear would rather cut bait now, after just two starts at $25kMCL on turf; the caution flag should be up when this one exits the paddock

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Kierland (5-2): Bettors lost their minds sending this one off 4-5 favorite in unlucky #13 start in an event for amateur, female riders; bullet work since gives hope he does better under new rider
  2. #2 – Wise Men (7-2): First start of ’18 has had a half dozen, evenly spaced works preparing for this race; second start with blinkers and for V. Carrasco with trainer M. Milosevic as they’re 1 for 1
  3. #8 – Lovely Games (5-1): Wanted turf in latest but got a sloppy surface and made best of it with runner-up finish; pedigree for turf is too good to be 0 for 5 without hitting the board; first start  on turf since removing blinkers two back   

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – He’s a Pussycat (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT Might get longer odds than ML on this gelding as there are sexier runners in this contest who will take action; Lone Speed from this Cappers perspective as he’s 2 for 4 in career and on the Lrl lawn; first start since Jan. 
  2. #1/1A – Against the Win/Henry the King (3-1): Both POE will run as “Henry” draws in off AE list thanks to scratch of #4, will want stablemate to ensure quick early pace to help late running style but that one showed early speed rather uncharacteristically due to being fractious and may not be as keen from Post 11 today
  3. #4 – Scout’s Honor (9-5): Third start after 6-month layoff, got the SHOW purse in both previous outings facing higher level open company claimers; 9-year-old has a 100 turf BRIS# on his resume’ when earned black-type albeit 3 years ago

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Kid Jeter (9-5): This 1 for 26 under achiever has been burning bettors money of late failing as PT favorite in 3 of past four outings but did earn career best 91 BRIS# in latest which was first start since last Nov.; a duplicate effort here gets him to Winners’ Circle
  2. #11 – Uhwarrie Sky (8-1): Not a lot of early speed signed up for this event as his recent form shows propensity to be forwardly placed; missed by a neck in latest though that was an “off the turf” try coming off the pace; he’s versatile and gets a capable turf rider whose 2 for 6 w/ trainer D. “Beth” Worton runners 
  3. #1 – Conquest Falcon (9-2): Broke maiden in latest at bottom for turf races and claimed by K. Magee who gets 21% to Winners’ Circle in this scenario; attracts out of town jock E. Zayas ride who’s in town for stakes races

Race 8 is the Concern Stakes

  1. #4 – Midnight Poker (2-1): Trainer Jo. Servis’ runner has been a “good thing” in the bettors eyes of late and why not?! Started career 4 for 4 and only blemish came in latest effort when runner-up in PA-bred stakes; stretches back out to distance he earned top BRIS# (95)
  2. #7 – Threes Over Deuces (7-2): Will try to turn the tables on top pick as he settled for being second best to him three back; has since had a pair of ITM finishes going longer; should relish cut back 
  3. #2 – Whereshetoldmetogo (3-1): Only mount on the Lrl card for J. Rose who0 guided this son of El Padrino to a 10-lenth victory at Del in latst, earning an eye-popping 103 BRIS#; has back class to back that up

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1.   #8 – My Sistersledge (9-2): Gets back to preferable distance after making her furious late surge   when asked to sprint in latest; S. Russell gets the call as regular rider opted for one mount in a stakes at WO            
  2. #1 – Ascertain (3-1): Everybody loves betting the Toddster’s shippers at Lrl but truth be told he’s a mere 20% here v. his overall 25%; this filly makes her turf debut in 10th career start and by the looks of that Jun 24 work on Bel turf, she’ll like it      
  3. #10 – Ladies’ Privilege (6-1): Disappointed backers at Del when sent off 3-2 and could do no better than fourth at this level; was going well late in that one but only gets a few extra yards today; must respect trainer M. Matz turf runners          

Race 10 is the Stormy Blues Stakes on TURF

  1. #9 – Smokinpaddylassie (5-1): Confident move by Prx-based trainer E. Coletti having this gray daughter of Paddy O’Prado make turf debut in a stakes race; toss the two-turn, G2 mistake and she figures to take advantage of leg-weary foes in the final furlong
  2. #2 – Miz Mayhem (2-1): Make no mistake, though he has 4 mounts on the card, regular jock E. Zayas makes the trip to ride this speedball; she’ll have a few gals breathing down her neck early and will need to carry that speed a 1/16th further on the turf than ever before
  3. #4 – Factorofwon (8-1): So. Cal export assuming there’s more opportunities in the Land of Pleasant Living for this gray on the grass??? Gets perfect set up as she does her best running in deep stretch

Race 11

  1. #6 – Ticker Tape Parade (9-2): Beaten favorite in first start of ’18 after a 6-month layoff, finishing fourth for third consecutive outing; connections willing to roll the dice dropping her to the bottom
  2. #8 – A Lotta Wine (2-1): NY shipper for trainer B. Brown who seeks first win at Lrl in the past year (8:0-0-1); couldn’t run with eventual winner in Bel mud v. better than these; runner-up two back on fast track, same distance as today
  3. #4 – Redeemed Gentleman (12-1): Turned in best efforts of eight-race career in last two when dropped to this bottom maiden level; had traffic issues in latest and wide two back so a clean, efficient trip could mean it’s Graduation Day

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday July 6th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.00 (3rd race), $4.40 (4th), $9.80 (5th), $6.00 (7th), $4.40 (8th) and $13.00 (10th). Top Selections are 226 for 787 (28.72%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (81:20-20-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) The Catmancan (1st race: 5-2 M/L; 3-5 PT) hopped slightly at the break, was lightly steadied on a rival’s heels near the five-eighths pole, saved ground, angled out in mid-stretch and rallied between horse to claim the runner-up spot to return $2.60 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (79:11-17-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Dona Elba (10th race: 5-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) stalked towards the inside of a rival, bid between to a short lead around the far turn, was hounded past the five sixteenths and faded to finished seventh.

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