The GQ Approach – Laurel July 6

by | Jul 6, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,157
  • Super High 5: $1,426
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 1 /#2 – The Catmancan (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 10 /#2 – Dona Elba (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 2, 5, 10 w/ 7 ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3 2, 8, 9 w/ 2, 4, 7 w/ 1, 2, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5 3, 4, 5 w/ 1, 9 w/ 5, 6 w/ 3, 5 w/ 1, 2, 10  ($36)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 3, 5 w/ 1, 2, 10 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1.   #2 – The Catmancan (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Got the best of his primary foes in their past three outings so what would change that today? D. Centeno who guided him to a win and runner-up efforts in only times aboard is back in the irons
  2. #5 – Shan Dian Kia (6-1): Finished less than two-lengths behind top pick in latest which was closer than their previous race; BRIS#s have been climbing so with another improvement and racing luck you never know
  3. #10 – Frasero (8-1): Away since Dec. gets protected thanks to dirt at this level prior to layoff; had been facing better on turf all of ’17 albeit without a victory but we know what the others can’t do

Race 2

  1. #7 – Titanium Love (5-2): Met this monster at the F-T TIM yearling sale and fell in love and so did Hillwood Stables spending $100k on him; this MD-bred FTS gelded son of Not for Love out of an Eddington mare has encountered issues while preparing for his long-awaited career debut; works indicate he could have been worthy waiting for
  2. #8 – Sonic Boom Jet (2-1): Blinkers get added in fourth career outing, third while in barn of C. Gonzalez (25% in ’18) looking for a clean trip; cuts back to 6f after showing speed going one-mile
  3. #6 – Mediterranean (6-1): $125k weanling purchase didn’t debut until a few weeks ago at age 4; ran to 26-1 odds sprinting on Mth turf when 7th of 9 runners; recent dirt works show promise

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Day of Reckoning (7-5): Four-time beaten favorite has been 5-2 or less in last 6 of 7 outings still seeks diploma; regardless of having the best turf BRIS# of this bunch from just two turf tries, these types always seem to break your heart; far from a single for your horizontals 
  2. #13 – Cool Cash (3-1): Likely scratch as he’ll need two defections to draw in; earned SHOW purse in latest despite a rough trip
  3. #2 – Quickhatch (9-2): Has yet to be in-the-money in nine starts but has improvement to the point of picking up small checks; finished just two-lengths behind top pick
  4. #9 – Bombero (12-1): Worth a look in third start since layoff since trainer J. Lawrence is 19% with +3.10 ROI in this scenario; cuts back from 2 two-turn outings a level higher to a sprint 

Race 4

  1. #2 – Double Whammy (9-5): Two years ago feasted on Alw5000s foes at Lrl but has just one win in his last 12 starts; spent the winter at GP, scene of last race in Feb. when overmatched in minor stakes event; should appreciate huge class relief and getting back on Lrl oval (17:8-4-1) 
  2. #7 – I Came to Party (9-2): BRIS#s have been climbing since trainer L. Gaudet $15k claim 5 races back though still winless as he’s been dropped a few levels; switches to R. Montanez after being beaten favorite in last two with 7 lb. bug
  3. #4 – Tequila Hero (10-1): Traffic trouble then having to go wide on the turn could be reason for regressing versus similar in latest going 7f; speed figures come up short of top two but a threat with M. Pino in the irons and an extra furlong

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Market Money (7-2): Third after layoff  couldn’t get to winner with a late charge and a nose short of PLACE purse to #10 in here; look for jock to be close to the early pace today if not on the lead as he was off the bench
  2. #8 – Saturday’s Rein (6-1): Just 1 for 23 in her career and that one came on the main track but 3 runner-up finishes in 5 on turf at this distance gives reason to believe she’ll win sooner than later; plenty of early speed in here to set up nicely for her typical big late run
  3. #2 – Jokers Tothe Right (6-1): Beaten favorite when bumped at the start then wide on the turn coming up 3+ lengths short and behind the three others back in here (#1, #8 and #9); regular rider A. Bocachica not coming in to ride as he’s done in the past could be a tell

Race 6

  1. #5 – To Blave (3-1): Third start after 5-month layoff provides this 6-year-old the best opportunity to get to Winners’ Circle for first time since breaking maiden 18 starts back as there should be plenty of leg-weary, early speed foes in deep stretch to catch based on his late running style
  2. #4 – Meo Desperado (9-2): Draw a line through this 3-year-old geldings lone turf start and he’s a quality runner who has hit the board in all four starts on the main oval against this level of competition or better; nice 3f bullet work last week
  3. #3 – Self Start (5-1): Ran out of real estate in latest which was 2-months ago v. $16kN2L going 6f; steps up a level but catches a soft group compared to the multiple next out winners he’s faced in three starts this year

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Misericordia (7-2): Can boast best career turf BRIS# (86) among this group; been training well at Colts Neck Stables training facility with three bullets after a disappointing seventh on Bel turf in first start against winners two-months back v. similar
  2. #1A – A Great Time (3-1): Stronger half of trainer M. Trombetta entry has finished ITM in all of her turf sprints (4:1-2-1) while all of the losses were by less than a length; adds blinkers in hopes of getting back to Winners’ Circle; third start after 15-month layoff
  3. #2 – Amapola (5-2): Finally broke maiden in latest, her 7th career start which followed 4 runner-up finishes after being DQ’d in debut when she won by 9+ lengths, which was over 2 years ago; tries turf for just second time as she got PLACE purse v. the boys on the Tam turf

Race 8

  1. #6 – Southern Wild (8-5): Unusual class drop after $40k claim by trainer K. Rubley (0 for 1 in this scenario); makes just fourth main track start of career (3:0-2-0) as latest was over a year ago in an “off the turf” event at CD, missing by a neck as the 2-1 favorite
  2. #5 – His Royal Majesty (5-2): Exits KY following a token run on CD turf while in “jail” following Winners Circle Partners XII claim for $16k; seems to have settled into new digs quite nicely based on 3f 35 3/5 breeze at Lrl; this late running gray gets favorable pace scenario
  3. #1 – Upper Crown (8-1): Lone start at this one-mile distance resulted in 13-length maiden win earning him a 85 BRIS#; that was 3 races back and last time racing on a fast, main track

Race 9

  1. #3 – Victory Rally (5-2): Failed as 1-5 favorite at Pim when caught in final strides against MD-sired/bred foes; works since indicate she’s capable of bouncing back to the form that saw her dominate rivals here last Fall
  2. #5 – Follow the Petals (6-1): Slowly improving with each start since $25k claim by trainer C. Gonzalez four races back; gets best, one-mile distance (7:3-1-1) but loses jock to PT fav. #3  
  3. #6 – Shape Shifters (9-2): Second of two runners shipped in from Prx for trainer M. Pino, thinking this is the one they’re banking to make the trip worth it; won last two by combined 15 ¼ lengths

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.   #2 – Dona Elba (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Steps up a level after disposing f $16kN2L in first start of ’18 on June 2nd, earning best turf BRIS# (86) for this distance among today’s foes; no reason to think she can’t improve off that race
  2.   #1 – Thrice (7-2): Tough rail assignment for filly who does her best running late with a jock who usually does best work on the front-end; regardless have to respect jock/trainer team who’ve been winning at a 26% clip the past year
  3. #10 – Fed Up Fired Up (6-1): Third start after layoff; ran career best BRIS# (82) off the bench but regressed in second outing; she’s better than what she showed in that one; D. Centeno picks up mount for injured “Cowboy” Hamilton

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday July 1st at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.00 (1st race), $3.20 (2nd), $6.80 (6th), $7.20 (8th), $17.80 (9th) and $5.20 (10th). Top Selections are 222 for 777 (28.57%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (80:20-19-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) So Charming (9th race: 3-1 M/L; 8-5 PT) outrun, swung wide in upper stretch to finish seventh.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (78:11-17-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Accountable (6th race: 20-1 M/L; 24-1 PT) bumped and put in tight at the break, was outrun and finished eighth.

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