The GQ Approach – Laurel June 29

by | Jun 29, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $2,049
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #12 – Appa (4-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 /#5 – My Enigma (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 5  w/ 1, 3, 7 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 7, 8 w/ 2, 5, 6 w/ 2, 3, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  5, 6 w/ 12 w/ 4, 5, 9 w/ 1, 5, 6 w/ 1, 9 ($18)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 1, 5, 6 w/ 1, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #2 – Toe Curlin’ Kiss (5-2): Game effort in debut when just one-length behind winner who won minor turf stakes last weekend; son of Curlin will relish stretch out form 6f to one-mile
  2. #5 – My Good Man (3-1): Best race from three lifetime was only one on the main track; makes third start after layoff and for trainer M. Eppler who gets runners to Winners’ Circle at 20%+ clip in both scenarios
  3. #4 – Saintly Samurai (7-2): KY-bred FTS by First Samurai out of a Saint Liam mare displays a nice, evenly spaced worktab for trainer G. Motion who also has #2; which one was entered to make sure the race went? Hmmm; No Lasix for this one in debut

Race 2

  1. #3 – Patriotic Heart (9-5): Has “Hopped at the start” in last two of three career outings; sent off as prohibitive favorite in debut and latest, both dirt sprints with turf sprint sandwiched between; curious drop to bottom ($5kN2L) for this 3-year-old filly who won debut just 9 weeks ago for $16k
  2. #1 – Soft Landing (7-2): Just 1 for 15 and that one came on a ‘wet fast’ Lrl surface against bottom level maidens; drops to bottom for winners after three “empty” performances versus N2L
  3. #7 – Kazzie Cottonwood (3-1): Slim pickin’s to find a winner in this group when third best is a 1 for 22 whose lone win came on turf; exits two turf outings versus better and appears trainer C. Gonzalez wants to cut bait but doubt there will be any takers

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Bushmill Giant (5-1): Protected via Waiver Claiming Rule as this gelding has been away since mid-Nov. when failing miserably as lukewarm favorite; jock/trainer have been winning at a 21% clip over the past year
  2. #8 – Mr. Magician (12-1): Willing to draw a line through that last outing when in against a bit better company; third start after layoff and A. Cintron stays aboard is worth using at this price
  3. #7 – My Own Lane (6-1): ’18 has been good so far as he beat $16kN2L in first start following a 5-month layoff when 13-1; improved BRIS# in next outing to be runner-up at this same level & distance on “Good” Pim grass

Race 4

  1. #2 – Anna’s Bandit (5-1): Only runner in this gathering of six who comes from off the pace so look for her to arrive on the scene late; had won 4 consecutive fast track sprints prior to sloppy track third in minor stakes then failed a turf experiment in latest 
  2. #6 – Everlasting Secret (4-1): Gate-to-wire winner as 2-1 favorite in OC25k/n2x takes necessary step up against plenty of other quick gals; H. Karamanos may be able to negotiate a stalking trip as she has in years past
  3. #5 – Pink Mama (3-1): Makes Lrl debut in 29th career start; 4-race win streak came to an end in latest when she went too fast too early; 15-time winner dances every dance as she’s finished ITM her last 19 starts

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Whyyouask (3-1): Just one turf start which was a winner in gate-to-wire earning her the best turf BRIS# of this entire bunch; claimed out of that one by trainer A. Farrior who hopes she can improve off that effort while in against N3L
  2. #8 – Dangerous Woman (8-1): Maybe trainer J. Stephens should move his operations from Mth to Lrl as he’s yet to lose here (3 for 3), the latest his first stakes win; ships this gal in for first Lrl start and regular rider J. Rendon makes the trip as well
  3. #3 – Hip Hop (5-1): Third start after layoff and gets D. Centeno back in the irons who guided her to victory in first off a 60-day layoff; ran into a tough Alwn1x bunch in latest

Race 6

  1. #6 – Warleigh (5-2): Drops from open $20k to $15k following an off the turf event at Pim going 5 furlongs where he was beaten favorite by just a neck; should appreciate the extra 1/16th
  2. #5 – Sir Orinoco (8-1): Away since last July and connections take advantage of the Waiver Claiming Rule to protect this 6-yewar-old gelding; shows half dozen brisk workouts with most recent a bullet
  3. #1 – Final Forum (4-1): First start after trainer N. Abramson’s $7,500 claim and aggressively placed while no longer in “jail”… and why not?! Been part of Exacta in past 5 starts v. lesser; last try at this level resulted in a win, 9 starts back in Oct. ‘17 

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #12 – Appa (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Earned 93 turf BRIS# in latest at GP in Apr. which is tops all rivals in here as far as their career best; hasn’t been worse than runner-up in 5 starts this year; Closer was looking to get pace help from uncoupled stablemate (#6) but was an Early Scratch as trainer J. Cibelli opts to ship this one & another in R9
  2. #11 – Chargin Storm (10-1): Beaten favorite when missing by a neck when running against a trio in same condition as today that came off the turf; victorious in lone Lrl turf start (OC25k) at this distance
  3. #5 – Feel Proud (8-1): Third start after layoff; lost match race in off the turf event at Pim in latest following win in restricted Alwn1x turf affair that saw the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th place finishers win in their next outing… talk about a “Key” race    

Race 8

  1. #9 – Aerial Assets (7-2): Earned SHOW purse in both career efforts when more than 20-1; both were last Oct. while second start was in a KY-bred juvenile filly stakes at CD; a quartet of workouts beginning in mid-May at Mth, including one at 6f might be good enough to graduate here 
  2. #4 – I’m Pretty Strong (9-2): Sagamore home bred barely picked up her hoofs in only two career starts, both on grass as her dam was a BC Turf winner; is switch to dirt only because of most recent work was a bullet… her only work ever on dirt? Second start with blinkers
  3. #5 – Timeless Curls (2-1): Prohibitive favorite in both starts, missing by a head in slop to future star then distant third on fast track; stretches out from 6f to one-mile is the right move based on pedigree

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – My Enigma (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Finally hit the board in third/latest start of ’18 at this level, surface and distance, and from ’17 form is proven winner; banking on this 6-year-old to get a favorable pace scenario and catch leg-weary speed late
  2. #1 – Uncle Youdge (12-1): Was in way over his head in PA Gov Cup at Pen; last victory was at this level as he is in for the tag, first time in his 18-race career
  3. #6 – Mai Ty One On (5-2): Uncharacteristically took early lead which he’d done just once before unsuccessfully but this field lacks a “need the lead” type so J. Vargas, Jr. may inherit it and go gate-to-wire

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #1 – Kuznetsov (8-5): Takes multi-level class drops in hopes of graduating from the maiden ranks; runner-up three races back in only other start at this level though on the dirt; proved he can handle turf when runner-up then fourth in latest as beaten favorite though 1-2 finishers came back to duplicate that effort in VA-bred turf stakes last weekend
  2.  #9 – Kitten’s Friend (9-2): Exits same race as top pick in second race after $20k claim by trainer E. Geralis; seems to cause her own issues so if she gets a clean break and trip, she’ll be heard from late
  3.  #4 – Wolverette (15-1): Gets much needed class relief as she was far behind top pick in her last two; believe she’s better than she’s shown of late and can surprise at a price or at least underneath in exotics

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday June 24th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $12.00 (2nd race), $3.60 (4th), $7.00 (6th), $10.80 (7th), $3.20 (8th) and $8.20 (9th). Top Selections are 216 for 747 (28.92%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (77:20-19-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Colonel Andy (5th race: 5-2 M/L; 9-5 PT) three deep on the turn, chased the pace and rallied to get the place at the wire to return $3.20 PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (75:11-16-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Midnight Punk (7th race: 8-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) rushed up four wide entering the turn, bid for the lead outside PUTURSEATBELTON in upper stretch, exchanged three bumps with that one the final furlong, remained on his left lead and narrowly prevailed to return $10.80 to WIN, $4.40 PLACE and $3.40 to SHOW.

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