The GQ Approach – Laurel June 22

by | Jun 22, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
“Z” race last out - If a horse loses ground from 2nd call to 3rd call but gains ground from 3rd call to the finish, s/he often runs an improved race in her next start.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 / #11 –  Dirty (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 /#3 – Sir Douglas (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 1, 6, 8  w/ 2, 6 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  3, 6, 9 w/ 1, 3, 7 w/ 3, 4, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 9, 11 w/ 4, 6, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with rain; highs in the low-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – GOOD/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Disclaimer: Although all races remain on the turf at press time, because of persistent rain in central Maryland this morning and predicted throughout the day, we have handicapped them assuming they will come off. Our apologies if this proves incorrect.

Race 1 is Scheduled for the Turf

  1. #1 – Emma’sdiamonddiva (10-1): Adds blinkers; drops back to $25k level where she won for second time as runner-up came back to win; was in too deep in latest
  2. #6 – Trafficplan (12-1): Initial turf try and stretching out from sprints; banking on an honest effort regardless of the surface; game in latest to be third after stumble at the start
  3. #8 – Expect a Kitten (9-2): Fifth in first start after 9-month vacation was expected based on past results coming off a layoff then won in second start as is the case today

Race 2

  1. #2 – Lost On the Stairs (4-5): Connections content to run this filly where she can be successful, at the bottom as she goes for the natural Hat Trick
  2. #6 – Scarlett’s Ransom (20-1): Adding Lasix in latest for first time in her last 8 races didn’t help with her stamina but those last two were on the grass and three back v. open claimers
  3. #5 – Indy Breeze (2-1): Vulnerable second-choice drops in first race after trainer K. Cox claim (0 for last 22 in first after claim scenario)

Race 3 is Scheduled for the Turf

  1. #9 – We Made It (9-2): Someone had egg on their face after this gelding laid one in debut when sent off 5-2 second choice; drops one level, stretches out from sprint and wants to try turf in hopes of makes amends for 19-length, last place finish; R. Montanez retains the mount
  2. #3 – French’s Quest (5-1): Trainer J. Corrales is nothing short of a miracle worker so far since taking over conditioning duties last month as he’s hit the board in all 3 starts since, though sprinting on a fast track
  3. #3 – Native Flora (15-1): Second start with blinkers as he faltered in first trip going long on turf with the hood on; full-brother is a multiple graded-stakes placed, $243k earner but as we know, Mr. & Mrs. Mays had 7 kids, but there was only one Willie

Race 4

  1. #7 – Ghareeb (5-1): Blinkers off in second try after trainer J. Ness reclaim of this 8-year-old gray whose form moves up on an off track (9:3-1-2) 
  2. #1 – Will (6-1): First start after 4-month layoff; easily won latest when dropped to the bottom, that after running off in the Post Parade; N4L facing foes who have won plenty more
  3. #3 – Awesome Bill (3-1): First start after trainer K. Magee claim for $7,500 in open company for 7-year-old who is just 4 for 52 lifetime so he gets class relief in this $5k conditional claimer

Race 5 is Scheduled for the Turf

  1. #6 – Dragonthorn Blue (9-2): Has the look of one who will benefit from that first two turn contest; drops a level in hopes the it’s Graduation Day
  2. #4 – Crossing the Blues (20-1): Showed late interest when giving the turf another shot; still hasn’t hit the board in 4 turf starts but latest gave an indication he may want more real estate to cover
  3. #3 – Conquest Falcon (3-1): HOF trainer KTL seems to have quickly lost patience with this recent $16k claim offering this 4-year-old gelding at a discount to get 4 lbs. off; R. Montanez stays aboard

Race 6

  1. #1 – City Gold (7-2): A head-scratcher as to why trainer F. Allen triple sticks would enter this one for a main track race; maybe he has a better handle on the long-range forecast because if the track is “off” (as expected), he could be tough to beat 
  2. #5 – Premier Event (9-2): Lone win which was only time ITM came on an “off’ track; third start after layoff where first two were going two turns on turf; precipitous alone should help
  3. #4 – Zap Cat (8-5): Lightbulb Theory could be in effect here as this 5-year-old comes off maiden win in 24th career start; has burnt plenty of bettors’ bankrolls along the way

Race 7 is Scheduled for the Turf

  1. #3 – Sir Douglas (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ TApepars to have been a prudent claim for $16k by trainer “Tre” Abbott who does great work with turf runners; the BRIS#s continue to climb regardless of surface with F. Lynch in the irons 
  2. #4 – Rule Yourself (9-2): Not a bad effort in first off trainer C. Lynch $16K claim when in “jail” having to face tougher foes, earning a career best 90 BRIS#; drops back to $16k with realistic shot at second career win
  3. #11 – Upper Crown (20-1): Three-year-old has blossomed for trainer W. Potts since he took over conditioning duties when sent to MD from Tam; F. Boyce gets mount and tries to win for Potts for first time in tenth try over the past year

Race 8

  1.  #4 – Glad Dad (5-2): Too bad “Dad” didn’t run last Sunday, would have been Hunch play of the Day; even so, likely Post Time favorite in here for third time in as many starts; Seconditis so far
  2. #8 – Pep Talking (8-1): Was one of two uncoupled FTSs entered for trainer “Ham” Smith as #11 gets scratched; a quartet of works look attractive for this SC-bred to be live on the board
  3. #5 – Absolved (9-2): Leading trainer C. Gonzalez’s Achilles Heel is FTS (10%) and 2 y.o. (8%); this Blame colt out of a St. Jovite mare who produced a $500k+ earner from 9 offspring; like the worktab 

Race 9 is Scheduled for the Turf

  1. #11 – Dirty (7-2): *** BEST BET *** NY-based shipper for trainer J. Englehart who only comes to Lrl with intentions of winning (4:2-2-0 since last Sept.); cut back from 6 furlongs on turf will help this 3-year-old making third start off layoff and against elders
  2. #9 – Victory Chimes (15-1): There’s a ton of early speed in this contest but he isn’t one of them; been away since last Nov. but a quartet of works with two bullets might indicate he’s ready to win off the bench 
  3. #3 – Expedited Vision (5-2): Three starts and only for a brief time has he seen the rear of a rival; will have plenty of company vying for the early lead so it will be interesting what tactics S. Russell deploys 

Race 10

  1.  #4 – Gnarly (9-5): Got an education in debut when making a nice late run at the winner to be clear runner-up; that was at this same $40k level and over a sloppy Lrl surface
  2.  #8 – Star That Shines (5-1): Well beaten favorite when shipped to Pid to face fellow PA-breds; bothered at the start but not enough for such a poor effort; got SHOW purse in lone Lrl outing at this level in first start after 10-month layoff this April; encouraged that J. Pimentel takes the call
  3.  #6 – El Daniel T (8-1): Enjoyed the fast, main track at Pim more than turf in debut; nearly took foes gate-to-wire in $25kMCL contest while not weakening as final fractions were 12 1/5 for the 6f, just got beat by a better runner 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday June 17th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.60 (1st race), $4.60 (2nd), $8.20 (3rd), $7.20 (5th), $12.00 (6th), $3.60 (7th) and $5.00 (8th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the $2 DOUBLE for $16.00 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 206 for 716 (28.77%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (74:19-18-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Backyard Kitten (1st race: 2-1 M/L; 9-5 PT) saved ground along the rail in mid-pack to the 5/16thd pole, altered to three-path on the turn for running room, rallied in deep stretch to prevail by one-length and returned $5.60 to WIN, $3.00 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (72:9-16-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Miss Craigie (4th race: 10-1 M/L; 12-1 PT) flashed speed, was shuffled back approaching the turn, dropped in and came up empty to finish seventh.

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