The GQ Approach – Laurel June 17

by | Jun 17, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $1,419
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 1 / #3 – Backyard Kitten (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 /#5 – Miss Craigie (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 3 w/ 1, 3, 7 ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  5, 6, 7 w/ 2, 5, 9 w/ 1, 7, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  3, 8, 10 w/ 1, 7 w/ 3, 4, 10 w/3, 6, 7 w/ 8, 9 ($54)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 3, 6, 7 w/ 8, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 4th, 8th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

Happy Father’s Day – 1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Backyard Kitten (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Third start after layoff; compromised in latest when stuck behind rivals when runner-up to #1A in here; trainer K. Magee also had #1A for different owner but decided to scratch – Happy Father’s Day!
  2. #4 – He’s One Wild Dude (7-2): First start of ’18 and after trainer J. Day $7,500 claim making him eligible for this race; will try to go gate-to-wire; loves Lrl lawn (8:5-1-2) 
  3. #1 – Spirit Grabber/Prime Time Man (8-5): “Spirit” is 0 for 7 on turf gets saddled by trainer (A. Fulco) on his birthday who last had an official starter over 11-years ago (career 3 for 10); “Man” won a match race in an off the turf event at Pim; following turf win over top pick and #2 but was a trainer scratch

Race 2

  1. #1 – Springtime Wind (9-5): Much the second best in latest for this same condition; should get a nice stalking trip
  2. #7 – No Soup for You (5-2): Has the back class to win at this bottom level; just 5 for 49 but wasted 5 years racing on synthetic (3 for 40); stretches out from sprint in third start after trainer D. Capuano claim
  3. #3 – Montrico (8-1): Refused to break when coming off a 75-day layoff yet oddly won previous start which was after a similar layoff; passed gate work test and gets more experienced jock today

Race 3

  1.  #7 – Belial (8-5): Word is the C. Lynch barn is loaded with talented, unraced 2-year-olds; this MD-bred by Tritap out of a Distorted Humor mare cost $25k just 2-months ago at OBS so exposing her for $40k when she could be protected is of no concern 
  2. #5 – G’s Warrior (7-2): Tardy start in muddy debut at Pim but got an education by showing willingness to run on late; trainer J. Robb wins at 20% clip with second career start runners
  3. #6 – Singinginstilettos (5-1): Third start is a charm? Improved in second start to be runner-up with late run going 4 1/2f; will try to give trainer first win of ’18 with just fifth starter

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Miss Craigie (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Makes third career start, first since last Dec. and first on turf, a surface that is prevalent along her female bloodlines; works show improvement as far as early foot and what better gate jock than J.D. Acosta to be in the irons
  2. #2 – Egber (9-2): Owns best turf BRIS# (77) in this field but it hasn’t gotten this 5-year-old mare to Winners’ Circle after 7 turf tries; third after layoff as runner-up in that one repeat the feat but against MSW on Friday
  3. #9 – Matinee Babe (4-1): First start after trainer J. O’Dwyer $10k who makes the right move putting this daughter of Scat Daddy back on turf as she held her own on NYRA lawns in $40kMCLs 

Race 5

  1. #1 – Gotham News (5-2): One of two uncoupled entries for trainer L. Gaudet (other is #3); tends to race wide so it should be interesting if K. Gomez swings out from rail on this late runner
  2. #8 – Mythos (5-1): Exits turf try when in over his head; gets multi-level class relief which trainer J. Maldonado excels (42%); welcome back jockey Victor Carrasco after a much too lengthy absence due to injury 
  3. #7 – Max Crown (6-1): Couldn’t get the 1 1/16 in the slop versus similar when dropped to lowest class level in recent memory; cuts back to a more favorable one mile where he’s 2 for 4 

Race 6

  1. #10 – Another Broad (4-1): Home/MD-bred filly by Include out of a Deputy Minister mare shows an extensive, evenly space work pattern finishing up with one from the gate… perfect!
  2. #3 – Gloria’s Gal (6-1): MD-bred FTS by top local sire Great Notion out of a Concorde’s Tune mare who was runner-up in her debut at Kee; partnership group Taste of Victory hoping for that 
  3. #8 – Marvelous Days (5-1): Adds blinkers for fourth career start after bobble at the break seemingly cost her the early positioning that helped her be a bridesmaid in second outing

Race 7

  1. #1 – Claravoyant (9-5): Beaten favorite when “whip caught in reins” behind a next out winner; jock switch to A. Cintron can hopefully avoid that mishap and get this 1 for 19 mare to Winners’ Circle
  2. #7 – Polarization (12-1): Second start with blinkers as she comes off turf try where she was not at all comfortable, her first start against winners; trainer H. McMahon will give leg up for the first time to 7 lb. bug A. Quiles
  3. #5 – Value Added (7-2): Tough to endorse this 1 for 23 for any horizontal wagers but tends to get minor awards regualrly (9:1-2-4 at this distance)  

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Toughest ‘Ombre (3-1): Third start after layoff and stretching out to familiar two-turn distance following a pair of 91 turf BRIS#s which are tops among today’s foes last race number; will likely need a different jock as E. Prado listed on one in $100k stakes at Mth
  2. #3 – Zen’s Land (5-1): Got SHOW purse in off the turf race in latest following close fourth in first start after taking winter off; needs pace help 
  3. #4 – All I Karabout (6-1): Impressive victory against lesser foes when blinkers were added; prior to that had traffic troubles when fast closing fifth in a “key” race that produced four next out winners

Race 9

  1. #3 – Caught Dream’n (5-2): Scratched from yesterday’s stakes gives one the indication she’s ready to score off the 7-month layoff; lost by a head to then future graded stakes winner Take Charge Paula
  2. #7 – Diamond Ring (6-1): 5-year-old mare makes just second career start; won debut here a short 17-months ago when in the barn of G. Motion; has been shipped to/from Dmr for return prior to transfer to young (5 for 18) trainer who will give a leg up to her fiancé
  3. #6 – Rumor Ridge (4-1): Talented filly (3:1-2-0) has finished ahead of a number of next out winners; seems to be the quickest from the gate and could steal it on the front end if not challenged early

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #9 – Towson (5-1): Hard to believe she’s still a maiden after 7 starts when she seemed to be the worst kept secret around the track, sent off 1-1 in debut 5-months ago; first turf try after last two were washed off it; gets the nod on cut back in distance
  2.  #8 – D’wildcat Sunshine (2-1): Beaten 4-5 favorite runner-up when dropped in for tag after four so-so efforts in MSW; takes another drop and switches surfaces as trainer J. Corrales is just 7% in this scenario
  3.  #4 – Enchanted Evening (9-2): Earned SHOW purse in latest which came off the turf but runner-up came back last night at CT and laid an egg as 6-5 favorite; third start of the year and positive jock switch gives best shot at earning diploma

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday June 16th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 12-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.40 (1st race), $3.40 (3rd), $5.20 (4th), $10.40 (5th), $12.40 (6th), $6.00 (7th), $7.80 (8th), $8.40 (11th) and $5.00 (12th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the 50 cent Pick-3 for $29.30 (cost: $13.50) and $2 DOUBLE for $18.00 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 202 for 706 (28.61%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (73:18-18-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Madam Alex (9th race: 3-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) dueled into the far turn, gained a brief, two wide lead leaving the turn then gave way in the stretch to finish seventh.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (71:9-16-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Proudly (8th race: 12-1 M/L; 17-1 PT) unhurried early, circled four wide into the stretch and finished with good energy to be runner-up and returned $12.00 to PLACE and $6.20 to SHOW.

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