The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 28

by | May 28, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $279,837.20
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: $8,173.87
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Beaten Favorite - A horse who did not win his/her last race but was the post time favorite often is overlooked by bettors in its next race.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 / #6 – Day of Reckoning (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #6 – Munificent (9-2)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double 4, 7 w/ 2, 3, 5 ($12)
    • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6 2, 7, 8 w/ 4, 6  w/ 6 w/ 1, 2, 5, 7 w/1, 6 w/ 1, 2, 5, 9 ($38.40)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy; highs in the upper-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 6th and 9th are OFF
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY / Turf – OFF

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #4 – Glad Dad (7-5): Word was out on this Friesan Fire colt as he was sent off 8-5 favorite but was a distant runner-up here 2 weeks ago 
  2. #7 – Fix Me a Sandwich (4-1): Owner is a “Step Brothers” movie fan no doubt; colt makes third career start at third different venue, drops in from NYRA tracks $100k MSW to $40k tag, second start with blinkers
  3. #6 – Lippi Lorenzo (6-1): MD-bred son of Street Magician was viery cold on the board (33-1) in MSW debut, racing wide and getting an education; expect an improvement with M. Pino aboard

Race 2

  1. #4 – Lonely Drifter (8-5): Switches to dirt after runner-up debut on turf at this level; came off the pace in that one while work tab suggested she’d be quick from the gate… maybe today she will be
  2. #5 – Starship Yenta (6-1): Comes out of same turf race as top pick; was uncharacteristically taken back when all previous dirt races showed early speed; might revert to that with different rider
  3. #3 – D’wildcat Sunshine (5-1): Drops in for ($25k) tag for first time in fifth career start, been running evenly but had troubled trip in latest with 10 lb. bug, gets positive rider switch

Race 3

  1. #2 – Troubleshoot (3-1): Has faced better prior to claim while being dropped first after claim raised a yellow flag, she could have run worse; main foes are a couple of 3-year-olds
  2. #6 – Tac Up (7-2): Third start after layoff; toss latest on turf as she proved again a dislike of the grass (3:0-0-0) but connections were probably tired of waiting for $5k N2L to go; lone win came on an off track
  3. #1 – Gracies Bandit (12-1): Second start with blinkers as this 3-year-old couldn’t handle peers at CT; hoping she can run back to bottom maiden win three back

Race 4

  1. #8 – Crystal Pier (9-2): Third start after layoff; exits two grass sprints versus open $7,500 as this one is conditional; gets J. Vargas, Jr. in irons who got her to Winners’ Circle three races back 
  2. #7 – Have Hope (2-1): 24 race veteran won easily versus lesser but has the back class to indicate she could handle step up; stretches out to distance she’s just 1 for 16; vulnerable favorite
  3. #2 – Dixie Rose (6-1): Blinkers off is a winning move 17% of the time for trainer D. Capuano; faced much better in turf sprint when coming off short layoff; prior to that had three consecutive troubled trips so a clean one under bug boy could start P6 with a price

Race 5

  1. #4 – Bad Nana (5-2): Has the ability to go coast to coast against this group; career best BRIS# (90) came on an off track
  2. #6 – Expect Indy (8-5): Won latest for this very condition on a fast Pim track just 17 days ago; an off track moves her up as she’s always hit the board (4:1-2-1)
  3. #5 – Lady Terp (3-1): Seemed disinterested when in against the top two in latest outing; capable of better as rider won with her in these start events earlier this year

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #6 – Day of Reckoning (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Exits turf sprint to stretch out to two turns for just second time in 9th career start; weakened in the stretch in that one but that was v. MSW; gate-to-wire seems doable
  2. #3 – Whiskey Wu (10-1): Best effort of her career came on a muddy surface, missing by a half-length though sprinting; finished double-digit behind winner in last two going two turns
  3. #1 – Valid Miracle (15-1): After starting career with two turf tries, one sprint and one distance, losing by a combined 47-lengths, why not stay in and test the main track… with Valid Appeal on the bottom, it can’t get worse can it?!  

Race 7

  1. #1 – Questionoftheday (3-1): … is, can this MD-bred FTS by The Factor out of a Mr. Greeley mare be as quick from the gate as his sire? Nice worktab shows best one came in a gate breeze; tough rail assignment though
  2. #7 – Swirrlie Shirlie (9-5): Gets HOF rider E. Prado for second career start following a SHOW effort in debut 16 days ago when sent off 5-1; rider lost whip in the stretch but doubt that cost her the diploma
  3. #5 – Orenda (6-1): Might be a real reach going with 1 for 24 Pen-based trainer who also has #4 in here; horrible start in debut in slop but showed late interest; that education may pay handsomely

Race 8

  1. #6 – Munificent (9-2): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Sent out by trainer M. Eppler who closes out a very successful meet at her home track; would be fitting to win her final race with this gal who earned a 94 BRIS# on a good sealed track which this one will be by Post Time; has failed twice as PT favorite since; exits turf sprint
  2. #1A – Magical (7-5): Stablemate was scratched leaving the better POE; late blooming 4-year-old was runner-up in debut then disposed of four weak foes; BRIS#s are strong but not 7-5 ML worthy
  3. #2/2x – Aiden’s Rag Doll/Candycoated Dame (3-1): Strong duo from the C. Gonzalez barn; “Doll” makes third start after claim and was ignored (29-1) at this level in latest when fourth; “Dame” has contracted Seconditis being the bridesmaid in last three outings versus similar

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Whatsthequestion (7-5): MTO entry stays even though he was scratched last Thursday in same scenario; has been part of the Exacta is half of his starts (50:13-12-9); tries for natural Hat Trick for Pen-based trainer T. Kreiser who’s winning in ’18 at a 30% clip
  2. #1 – Zen’s Land (7-2): Will need pace help as he comes from the clouds; prefers running on grass but has handled main surface, with a win from two off track tries 
  3. #5 – Doddsprivatelabel (7-2): First start of $11k claim for trainer C. Gonzalez who gets them to Winners’ Circle 33% of the time in this scenario; last win claim three back in $7,500N1Y which qualifies him for this one; breeding says stretch out to two turns is a bad move but never going to question this outfit

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday May 27th at Pimlico had 3 winners from the shortened 4-race card that was cancelled prior to the 5th race due to extreme weather conditions (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $12.80 (1st race), $5.20 (3rd) and $2.40 (4th). Top Selections are 176 for 613 (28.71%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (64:16-15-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Calvi (2nd race: 9-5 M/L; 2-1 PT) broke slowly, angled out leaving the three quarters pole, was under pressure past the three eighths, shifted in near the three sixteenths but lacked a bid and finished fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (62:7-14-8; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Cannon’s Roar (6th race: 6-1 M/L) did not race due to cancelation of the card after the 4th race.

Check out...