The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 27

by | May 27, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $279,837.20
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: $8,173.87
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
“Z” race last out - If a horse loses ground from 2nd call to 3rd call but gains ground from 3rd call to the finish, s/he often runs an improved race in her next start.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2 / #1A – Calvi (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #4 – Cannon’s Roar (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double 4, 6 w/ 1 ($4)
    • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  3, 4, 5 w/ 1, 4, 7 w/ 2, 3, 7 ($13.50)
    • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5 3, 5, 9 w/ 1, 4  w/ 3, 4, 9 w/ 2, 6 w/ 3, 7, 12 ($54)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy with mid-day showers; highs in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 4th, 6th, 8th are ON but 10th is OFF
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #6 – Yes Means No (6-5): Need to draw a line through his last race which was a turf experiment that trainer R. Bailes won’t try again; drops to lowest level in hopes of earning diploma in 10th start
  2. #4 – Fiery Challenge (5-1): Another who realized turf racing is not in his future; two back was 3+ lengths behind a pair who finished 3rd and 4th yesterday in $10kN2L
  3. #5 – Redeemed Gentleman (12-1): Best performance was latest, showing early speed going long after dueling with rivals then faded in the Pim mud; at least he’s improving race over race

Race 2

  1. #1A – Calvi (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Nice pair was entered by trainer G. Motion as both finished ITM in their debut, on same day in different races; #1 Top Czar was scratched which indicates confidence in 4-year-old stablemate who was a game runner-up after a tardy start going one mile; should get a better price since it’s no longer a 2 for 1 deal      
  2. #6 – Top Me Off (10-1): Third in debut at Kee in $50kMCL when ignored at the windows (29-1); stretches out to two turns which is what he wants based on breeding
  3. #5 – Chateau (2-1): Nearly pulled off a 78-1 shocker at Kee when runner-up sprinting and first natural dirt start in 9th overall; must have impressed “The Toddster” as he purchased this one privately providing the ultimate upgrade  
  4. #2 – C C Rider (3-1): TC nominated but didn’t debut until Mar. 3rd finishing 21-lengths behind Derby participate Hofburg w/o Lasix; runner-up in next two on turf when given Lasix; was it turf or Lasix that made the difference?

Race 3

  1. #4 – Tiz Majesty (7-2): Tough to separate this group but landed on this one due to Pim main surface favoring the front runner a bit; 1 for 32 lifetime though, might be a good race to get a beverage
  2. #5 – Love in Excess (3-1): Turf to dirt angle here while dropping back into bottom level N2L; third in lone two turn dirt outing
  3. #3 – Dear Charlotte (9-2): An ill-advised turf start when first time in against winners since she finished OTB in previous 5 on the grass; beat top two when breaking maiden 1/16th shorter

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Daddy’s Copy (1-2): Yeah, yeah… GQ you chalk eating weasel; last three speed figure-wise tower over his competition today; could be vulnerable on Pim “softer than GP” turf but that’s a big IF; has hit the board in all 3 on GP turf behind multiple next out winners
  2. #7 – Railroader (10-1): Second start with blinkers after being runner-up, unable to get by early leader late when in against elders though was 3-5 Post Time favorite; a small step forward and he’ll challenge top pick 
  3. #4 – Maynooth (8-1): Has been a huge disappointment while always well backed but has Seconditis (8:0-4-1); three changes here… jock, in for tag and gelded might be the charm

Race 5

  1. #7 – Max Crown (8-5): Keeps getting buried when put in against Alwn1x as he was in latest; drops to a level where he can be successful though 0 for 8 at distance; watch toteboard early for a clue
  2. #2 – Greek God (5-1): Trainer J. Maldonado does well with turf-to-dirt runners (25%) with a positive ROI; if top pick doesn’t want early lead, this one will take it and to try a gate-to-wire score
  3. #3 – I’m Mr. Blue (8-1): Pure class dropper play on third start since layoff; 4 for 34 lifetime but likes Pim (2:0-1-1); hasn’t visit Winners’ Circle in past 20 starts 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Trafficplan (9-2): Makes turf debut and though the turf breeding isn’t there, she’s been sprinting in fast fractions; her rivals today have shown zero early speed; take a flyer on her in hopes A. Cruz reads the PPs, puts her on the lead and can put the others to sleep
  2. #9 – Fed Up Fired Up (5-1): Made a furious late run in first off layoff but came up short going 1/16th shorter than today to next out winner; has best turf BRIS# at this distance in this group
  3. #5 – Believe in Angels (9-5): Trainer C. Martin gets the jump on the Del meet by traveling down to saddle this mare; will give A. Cintron a leg up as they’ve gotten 2 of 6 to Winners Circle as a team

Race 7

  1. #4 – Cannon’s Roar (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Though he faced a soft bunch in the $16kN2L in first try against winners, he was challenged early plus could have bounced off career best effort in maiden breaker; jock change and ability to clear early can reverse fortunes
  2. #1 – Mutaraamy (5-2): Failed as lukewarm favorite in latest when pinched back at the start then ran on late, making up 8-lengths in the stretch; a better break will help chances versus these 
  3. #6 – Bad Angel Burke (7-2): has been part of some quick, early fractions when going shorter; gave up lead late in quest to beat peers at $15k Claimer level right after maiden breaker in slop

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Proud O’Paddy (4-1): Lone entry on the Pim card for trainer J. Cibelli who makes a brief stop after spending winter in So. FL on her way to her summer digs at Mth; extra real estate helps    
  2. #3 – Talkless Smilemore (7-2): Has the ability to take this field from gate-to-wire; trainer K. Rubley seems to have prepped all of her runners well for the Mid-Atlantic turf season and this newcomer should be no different
  3. #4 – Mini Hero (5-1): Don’t be surprised if this 6-year-old mare takes action early, it’s due to the E. Prado effect at Pim; makes first start of ’18; has nice preps at Prx

Race 9

  1. #6 – Deep Red (2-1): Earned her career best BRIS# (88) in latest which is same number as ML favorites latest; this gal is much more seasoned having gone post-ward eleven times while earning black type
  2. #2 – Zorally (7-5): Chased a monster in vain on sloppy Pim surface on Black-Eyed Susan Day when much the second best; quick turn-around though wheeling right back, hope she is fit
  3. #9 – Pearl Gem (10-1): Been away since last Oct. when fourth in MD Million Lassie; tough spot for her 3-year-old debut but trainer M. Eppler barn is red hot of late

Race 10 is OFF THE TURF

  1.  #7 – Me Darlin Kara (9-2): Third start after 7-month layoff, though first two were on turf, he has shown speed on dirt and only going 5 furlongs here could make every pole a winning one for KTL 
  2.  #3 – My Brothersledge (5-2): Full sibling to turf stakes winning My Sistersledge; stays in this off the turf event; did so 3 races back showing foot then weakened late; second start with blinkers  
  3.  #12 – Sonic Boom E Jet (20-1): Looking for a price that could bring down the P6 having a $279k+ carryover? Here you go… first start for 25% trainer C. Gonzalez; hasn’t run since last Oct. but shows a quintet of serviceable works; gives a leg up to “go to’ rider J. Torres

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday May 26th at Pimlico had just 4 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.40 (1st race), $7.80 (4th), $3.60 (5th) and $3.00 (8th). Top Selections are 174 for 609 (28.57%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (63:16-15-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Top Hat City (6th race: 3-5 M/L) was a late scratch when race was taken off the turf.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (62:7-14-8; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Madam Alex (3rd race: 10-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) prompted the early pace in the three-path, continued on gamely in the stretch but could not get to the winner and returned $6.00 to PLACE and $4.60 to SHOW.

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