The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 24

by | May 24, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $216,236.59
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #7 – Item (5-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #11 – Stella Nova (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  10, 12 w/ 1 w/ 1, 11 ($2)
    • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  1 w/ 1, 11 w/ 1, 6 w/ 2, 4, 5, 10 w/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 w/ 4, 7, 14 ($57.60)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the low-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1/1A – Prime Time Man/Spirit Grabber (2-1): “Prime” won as 6-5 favorite on Closing Day at Lrl in this same condition travelling a 1/16th further, but that was on turf; “Spirit” will sit this one out based on trainers decision 
  2. #6 – Feel Proud (5-1): Scored in first off 5-month layoff v. restricted Alw; has blossomed on turf and ITM in all 6 starts since “Claim of the Year” for $5k by D. Worton at The Big T; got SHOW purse on dirt in last race of ’17
    note: These are the only two left in this race, all others are scratched… enjoy this MATCH RACE!          

Race 2

  1. #6 – Slim Fit (8-5): Fourth career start, second with blinkers; stretches out to two turns after three 6 furlong outings earning 80+ BRIS#s in all 3, only one other in here has one
  2. #5 – Consider This (9-5): One start that earned an 80n BRIS# only good enough to be a bridesmaid going one mile; SHOW filly came back to graduate in next effort
  3. #4 – Rain On The Dune (5-2): After six starts on turf, trainer G. Motion decides to try a surface switch and takes blinkers off

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #10 – Zap Cat (9-5): Long-time maiden (0 for 23) has done best work on the grass at this distance (4:0-3-0) but will try to graduate in eighth dirt start (7:0-0-2); has burned play of bettors money being sent off 3-1 or less in last 8 of 10 outings
  2. #12 – Kierland (8-5): NY-bred has failed to win at Aqu, Bel and Sar then spent winter trying at FG and GP; maiden tour makes stop at Pim; lone dirt wasn’t bad and came without Lasix
  3.   #1 – Whiskey Wu (20-1): Been beaten double-digits in only three races on a fast track… just gives you an indication how talented the others seem to be; at least those three races were sprints, today he goes two turns   

Race 4

  1. #1/1A – Gimme Kimmy/Lost On the Stairs (7-5): “Kimmy” is a trainer scratch; “Lost” makes first start after $5k claim for trainer J. Robb following romp versus N2L 
  2. #7 – Selling Stones (5-1): Not a bad effort when moved up a few class levels to give turf a go after $5k claim; returns to dirt and drops back to level where she was claimed
  3. #3 – Awesome Alma (3-1): Finished in another zip code behind next out winner versus similar in latest which was 2 months ago but has had two published works

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – Stella Nova (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Speed of the speed gets to run on preferred surface (7 of 12) v. turf for just second time; has the perfect gate rider in J.D. Acosta who has guided him victory 2 of last 3 starts
  2. # 1/1A – Burbank Road/Southern Peach (7-2): “Peach” could have drawn in off AE list but scratched; “Road” shows only two starts on dirt which both resulted in earning SHOW purse; has the early speed to test top pick early
  3. #8 – Intrepid Forest (20-1): Should be shorter due to scratches in here and will be among those getting an early call; took an open nickle claiming crew gate-to-wire two back     

Race 6

  1. #1/1A – Beautiful Maiden/Porte Cochere (8-1): “Maiden” gets her best distance (9:4-2-1) after beating Alw7500s two back; “Cochere” turf try in first start after trainer J. Rodriguez $5k claim didn’t go as planned but finds a nice fit here
  2. #6 – Star Eighty (5-1): Used to be reliable on the front end going longer but has been inconsistent of late in these Starter Alw events; A. Cintron takes over for E. Gonzalez who will be on #9
  3. #2 – Queen Francis (5-2): Vulnerable favorite IMHO as this gray mare stats looking for the oxygen tank at the 1/16th pole when going 6 furlongs; with that said, she’ll win going away today   

Race 7

  1. #5 – My Good Man (10-1): Claimed by trainer M. Eppler for $20k out of debut on GP turf in Jan. when 13-1 and only showed late interest; a $200k yearling purchase seems worth the risk and has nice dirt works at Pim, gelded and adds blinkers
  2. #4 – Rare Notion (6-1): Outfit isn’t used to losing many in the maiden ranks, especially with their home breds; adds blinkers in third career start following two adventurous outings sent off 2-1
  3. #2 – Cerulean Spring (9-2): Has the look of a lovable loser (11:0-5-2) but cannot knock trainer M. McMullen’s job getting this one for $15k three back then seeing two runner-up efforts against top level maidens

Race 8

  1. #7 – Item (5-1): PA-bred been competing in restricted stakes while always picking up a check; like that D. Whitney makes trip to B’more to ride; versatile running style makes her a threat
  2. #3 – Dance Queen (6-1): Future looked bright when she won first two career starts then something must have went amiss in minor stakes a year ago as she just made next start 19 days ago but it didn’t go well while chilly on the board; first dirt try today
  3. #4 – Charity Stripe (5-1): Passed N1x in latest so the waters get deeper but like that K. Gomez lands here instead of trainer C. Gonzalez uncoupled stablemate (#6); should get a honest pace to chase

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Im a Dancer (8-1): Forwardly placed when going two turns, did so 14 days ago over this Pim dirt dueling most of the way, salvaged the SHOW spot; 7lb. bug T. Lypustina’s 2 of 5 career victories have been aboard B. Plummer’s runners
  2. #14 – Janelle Dreams (10-1): Has earned among the higher dirt BRIS#s of those in here who have tested the natural dirt; trainer/jock combo have gotten to Winners Circle with 2 of 3 runners
  3.   #7 – A Simple Challenge (15-1): Time for a little Faith… trainer Leatherman that is who seeks first win of ’18; 5-year-old mare makes ’18 debut and has ability to get early lead with X-Man nursing slow fractions along the way

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday May 19th at Pimlico had 9 winners from the 14-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.60 (1st race), $4.20 (2nd), $6.20 (3rd), $3.00 (6th), $2.80 (8th), $7.80 (10th), $4.40 (11th), $3.20 (12th) and $2.80 (13th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $7.80 (cost: $4). Top Selections are 163 for 581 (28.06%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (61:15-14-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Pony Up (12th race: 7-2 M/L; 7-2 PT) angled off the inside leaving the three quarter pole, lagged well off the pace, was under pressure outside a rival leaving the far turn, altered out in upper stretch and had belated action to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (59:6-13-8; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) American Sailor (4th race: 10-1 M/L; x-1 PT) away alertly, disputed the pace outside the winner, drifted out a bit in upper-stretch,   weakened and finished fifth.

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