The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 24

by | May 24, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $216,236.59
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Always tell the truth. Then you don't have to remember anything.Mark Twain Roughin' it
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #7 – Item (5-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #11 – Stella Nova (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  10, 12 w/ 1 w/ 1, 11 ($2)
    • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  1 w/ 1, 11 w/ 1, 6 w/ 2, 4, 5, 10 w/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 w/ 4, 7, 14 ($57.60)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the low-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1/1A – Prime Time Man/Spirit Grabber (2-1): “Prime” won as 6-5 favorite on Closing Day at Lrl in this same condition travelling a 1/16th further, but that was on turf; “Spirit” will sit this one out based on trainers decision 
  2. #6 – Feel Proud (5-1): Scored in first off 5-month layoff v. restricted Alw; has blossomed on turf and ITM in all 6 starts since “Claim of the Year” for $5k by D. Worton at The Big T; got SHOW purse on dirt in last race of ’17
    note: These are the only two left in this race, all others are scratched… enjoy this MATCH RACE!          

Race 2

  1. #6 – Slim Fit (8-5): Fourth career start, second with blinkers; stretches out to two turns after three 6 furlong outings earning 80+ BRIS#s in all 3, only one other in here has one
  2. #5 – Consider This (9-5): One start that earned an 80n BRIS# only good enough to be a bridesmaid going one mile; SHOW filly came back to graduate in next effort
  3. #4 – Rain On The Dune (5-2): After six starts on turf, trainer G. Motion decides to try a surface switch and takes blinkers off

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #10 – Zap Cat (9-5): Long-time maiden (0 for 23) has done best work on the grass at this distance (4:0-3-0) but will try to graduate in eighth dirt start (7:0-0-2); has burned play of bettors money being sent off 3-1 or less in last 8 of 10 outings
  2. #12 – Kierland (8-5): NY-bred has failed to win at Aqu, Bel and Sar then spent winter trying at FG and GP; maiden tour makes stop at Pim; lone dirt wasn’t bad and came without Lasix
  3.   #1 – Whiskey Wu (20-1): Been beaten double-digits in only three races on a fast track… just gives you an indication how talented the others seem to be; at least those three races were sprints, today he goes two turns   

Race 4

  1. #1/1A – Gimme Kimmy/Lost On the Stairs (7-5): “Kimmy” is a trainer scratch; “Lost” makes first start after $5k claim for trainer J. Robb following romp versus N2L 
  2. #7 – Selling Stones (5-1): Not a bad effort when moved up a few class levels to give turf a go after $5k claim; returns to dirt and drops back to level where she was claimed
  3. #3 – Awesome Alma (3-1): Finished in another zip code behind next out winner versus similar in latest which was 2 months ago but has had two published works

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – Stella Nova (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Speed of the speed gets to run on preferred surface (7 of 12) v. turf for just second time; has the perfect gate rider in J.D. Acosta who has guided him victory 2 of last 3 starts
  2. # 1/1A – Burbank Road/Southern Peach (7-2): “Peach” could have drawn in off AE list but scratched; “Road” shows only two starts on dirt which both resulted in earning SHOW purse; has the early speed to test top pick early
  3. #8 – Intrepid Forest (20-1): Should be shorter due to scratches in here and will be among those getting an early call; took an open nickle claiming crew gate-to-wire two back     

Race 6

  1. #1/1A – Beautiful Maiden/Porte Cochere (8-1): “Maiden” gets her best distance (9:4-2-1) after beating Alw7500s two back; “Cochere” turf try in first start after trainer J. Rodriguez $5k claim didn’t go as planned but finds a nice fit here
  2. #6 – Star Eighty (5-1): Used to be reliable on the front end going longer but has been inconsistent of late in these Starter Alw events; A. Cintron takes over for E. Gonzalez who will be on #9
  3. #2 – Queen Francis (5-2): Vulnerable favorite IMHO as this gray mare stats looking for the oxygen tank at the 1/16th pole when going 6 furlongs; with that said, she’ll win going away today   

Race 7

  1. #5 – My Good Man (10-1): Claimed by trainer M. Eppler for $20k out of debut on GP turf in Jan. when 13-1 and only showed late interest; a $200k yearling purchase seems worth the risk and has nice dirt works at Pim, gelded and adds blinkers
  2. #4 – Rare Notion (6-1): Outfit isn’t used to losing many in the maiden ranks, especially with their home breds; adds blinkers in third career start following two adventurous outings sent off 2-1
  3. #2 – Cerulean Spring (9-2): Has the look of a lovable loser (11:0-5-2) but cannot knock trainer M. McMullen’s job getting this one for $15k three back then seeing two runner-up efforts against top level maidens

Race 8

  1. #7 – Item (5-1): PA-bred been competing in restricted stakes while always picking up a check; like that D. Whitney makes trip to B’more to ride; versatile running style makes her a threat
  2. #3 – Dance Queen (6-1): Future looked bright when she won first two career starts then something must have went amiss in minor stakes a year ago as she just made next start 19 days ago but it didn’t go well while chilly on the board; first dirt try today
  3. #4 – Charity Stripe (5-1): Passed N1x in latest so the waters get deeper but like that K. Gomez lands here instead of trainer C. Gonzalez uncoupled stablemate (#6); should get a honest pace to chase

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Im a Dancer (8-1): Forwardly placed when going two turns, did so 14 days ago over this Pim dirt dueling most of the way, salvaged the SHOW spot; 7lb. bug T. Lypustina’s 2 of 5 career victories have been aboard B. Plummer’s runners
  2. #14 – Janelle Dreams (10-1): Has earned among the higher dirt BRIS#s of those in here who have tested the natural dirt; trainer/jock combo have gotten to Winners Circle with 2 of 3 runners
  3.   #7 – A Simple Challenge (15-1): Time for a little Faith… trainer Leatherman that is who seeks first win of ’18; 5-year-old mare makes ’18 debut and has ability to get early lead with X-Man nursing slow fractions along the way

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday May 19th at Pimlico had 9 winners from the 14-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.60 (1st race), $4.20 (2nd), $6.20 (3rd), $3.00 (6th), $2.80 (8th), $7.80 (10th), $4.40 (11th), $3.20 (12th) and $2.80 (13th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $7.80 (cost: $4). Top Selections are 163 for 581 (28.06%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (61:15-14-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Pony Up (12th race: 7-2 M/L; 7-2 PT) angled off the inside leaving the three quarter pole, lagged well off the pace, was under pressure outside a rival leaving the far turn, altered out in upper stretch and had belated action to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (59:6-13-8; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) American Sailor (4th race: 10-1 M/L; x-1 PT) away alertly, disputed the pace outside the winner, drifted out a bit in upper-stretch,   weakened and finished fifth.

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