The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 18

by | May 18, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $888
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey and/or Trainer “upgrade” - When a higher-win-percentage jockey takes the mount over for one “less successful” in his/her trade, the horse may take a step forward. The same goes when a new trainer has a notably better record than the prior trainer.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #9 – Good Move (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 /#3 – Rated R Superstar (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 3  w/ 3, 8, 10 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  3, 4, 7 w/ 5, 6, 7 w/ 3, 4, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick-5  8, 9 w/ 4, 7, 8 w/ 2, 3, 7 w/ 1, 5 w/ 4, 7, 9 ($54)
  • Race 11 – 50 cent Pick-4  4, 7, 9  w/ 1, 8 w/ 1, 3, 6, 7 w/ 7, 9, 12 ($36)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with showers; highs in the low-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 2nd, 6th, 8th are OFF but 4th, 10th, 12th, 14th are ON
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY / Turf – YIELDING

First Race Post Time 11:30am EDT

Race 1

  1. #2 – Holiday Time (5-1): Scratched yesterday in an off the turf contest as a MTO entry who could have run 5f but opts to make debut going 6f; young trainer B. Trimble will give a leg up to fiancé S. Russell; daughter of Lemon Drop Kid out of a Dixieland Band mare will handle slop just fine
  2. #3 – Timeless Curls (9-2): KY-bred FTS by Curlin out of a Glided Time mare has been busy in the morning; like the gate works especially 6f
  3. #6 – D J’s Favorite (7-2): Worth a second chance after being carried 7-wide in debut at Aqu when heavy backed  

Race 2 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #10 – Sneaky Betty (3-1): Been favorite in last four outings but only one win to show for it; should get a nice stalking trip and turn back late charge from #11 who caught him the last time they met 
  2. #3 – Last Promise (7-2): All five previous races have been on the turf but stays in; pedigree suggests she will handle the main, sloppy surface just as well as the grass   
  3. #8 – So Innocent (20-1): Assuming a plethora of scratches, she might be the lone speed left to get an easy win which would give her a natural Hat Trick  

Race 3

  1. #4 – Zorally (5-2): Not only like how she dominated in her debut but that she was flattered when the distant runner-up came back to easily break her maiden last weekend here
  2. #7 – Happiness (9-2): Tardy break from the gate when sent off 4-5 favorite was hustled up, taking the lead in 22.79 which she was unable to sustain by mid-stretch; like that connections waste no time in letting her redeem herself
  3. #3 – Sower (2-1): Graduated in debut in a romp by 7+ lengths earning an eye-popping 95 BRIS# at Lrl just 19 days ago  

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Style Icon (5-2): Makes fourth start at fourth different venue, all on turf; two back managed to get thru traffic to earn SHOW purse then in latest ran off pre-race yet amazingly got lead late but couldn’t seal the deal
  2. #6 – Atropos (15-1): Second start with blinkers after showing interest splitting foes in the stretch even though she couldn’t cut into the final margin of the winner; got a sharpening type of work since that one
  3. #7 – Anne Dupree (9-2): Troubled trip early in latest at GP; gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons today who may elect to try get a gate-to-wire score               

Race 5 is the $100k Skipat

  1.  #4 – Ms Locust Point (7-5): Finally met her match in G1 Madison at Kee in latest outing but was compromised when in tight at the start, unable to get early lead as she’s accustom and never threatened; lack of early speed from her foes in here should help get her back to Winners’ Circle 
  2.  #8 – Vertical Oak (9-2): 2 for 2 over the Pim main track  a year ago when easily winning the G3 Miss Preakness which followed a minor stakes victory in the slop; failed as 1-1 favorite in ’18 debut at OP on her preferred “slop” 
  3.  #3 – Startwithsilver (3-1): NY -based runner has won 3 of her last 4, the most impressive was over a sloppy Big A surface; trainer L. Rice and jock I. Oritz, Jr. have teamed up for a 29% win rate  

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – In Arrears (8-1): 4-year-old gelding has responded positively (6:1-4-0) since being transferred to trainer B.  McFarlane; OTB in latest as favorite but gets regular jock F. Lynch back in the irons
  2. #5 – Nautical Nature (12-1): “Bet a gray on a rainy day” is often heard at the track and this gelding was very quick from the gate last Fall; 3-year-old makes ’18 debut versus elders
  3. #7 – Shoe Loves Shoe (9-5): Would prefer turf but will try to get natural Hat Trick on the off going; there’s plenty of other early speed so it will be interesting to see tactics used by H.  Karamanos

Race 7 is the $150k G3 Adena Springs Miss Preakness

  1. #9 – Good Move (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Very quick daughter of Broken Vow is a perfect 2 for 2 in gate-to-wire fashion earning 90+ BRIS#s in each; flattered by runner-up in latest who came back to win an OC75k/n1x; sloppy track could boost her chances based on bullet work over it 
  2.  #8 – Almond Roca (5-1): Turf to dirt angle as she showed early speed then weakened going two turns in G3 FL Oaks; has consistently finished her 6 furlong efforts in sub-13 seconds; gets plenty of pace to chase 
  3.  #1 – Happy Like a Fool (5-1): Wesley Ward trainee burst onto the scene in debut last year and has only raced four times since; may have been short in G3 Beaumont in ’18 debut and/or not up for 7 furlongs; tough rail assignment for one who will try catch leg-weary speed 

Race 8 is OFF THE TURF

  1.  #8 – Sound Off (15-1): Nice late interest when sprinting over a sloppy track in first start after 4-month layoff; stretches out to preferred distance and gets capable out of town jock
  2. #4 – Jump Jive an Wail (20-1): Been off form in last two races; has back class to turn it around and that is likely to happen on a sloppy surface on which he excels (7:2-1-2)
  3. #7 – South Sea (6-1): Invader from Prx makes third start after layoff and stretches out from those two sprints; may try to go gate-to-wire with limited foes in this off the turf contest  

Race 9 is the $300k G3 Pimlico Special

  1.  #3 – Rated R Superstar (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ BRIS#s have been climbing once again reaching triple-digits in G3 Ben Ali win at Kee with a visually impressive late run; improved when blinkers came off and asked to go two turns 
  2.  #7 – Afleet Willy (10-1): Knows only one way, directly to the lead, willing to turn back those who challenge him early; has a string of five straight triple digit BRIS#s when going two turns; loves an “off’ track (5:4-0-1)
  3.  #2 – One Liner (7-2): 3 for 3 when taken off Derby Trail last year as “something just wasn’t right” per trainer T. Pletcher; makes third start of ’18 after getting back to Winners’ Circle against much easier foes in latest

Race 10 is the $100k Jim McKay TURF Sprint

  1.  #1 – Rocket Heat (6-1): Appropriately named gelding is the speed of the speed, riding a two-race win streak but failed in this event last year when sent off 4-5 favorite, yielding late to Ben’s Cat; didn’t face early pressure then and won’t this year either; career best BRIS# in latest
  2.  #5 – Vici (10-1): Game gelding doesn’t get to Winners’ Circle often (22:3-7-4) but fits this 5f distance, appears to like some “give” in the ground which there will be in the Pim turf after receiving plenty of rain this week; needs a top effort in only his second try in a stakes event
  3.  #3 – Imprimis (3-1): Late-blooming 4-year-old made a winning debut in Feb. at GP following that with two more wins, each more impressive than the previous one, all going 5f on turf and from off-the-pace which is rare on the GP lawn; taking a big step up in class will test whether he belongs in stakes company 

Race 11 is the $250k G2 Black-Eyed Susan

  1.  #7 – Goodonehoney (5-1): Local gal won automatic bid into this race via 7-length romp in the Weber City Miss; having witnessed both of her starts, she’s shown the maturity and talent to compete against these out of town invaders with just another small step forward
  2.  #9 – Sara Street (4-1): Game in half-length defeat in the G2 Gazelle at Aqu after being bridesmaid to the #2 in here; is one of just a few who will want the early lead which bodes well for to improve off her latest at the same distance as today; jock’s only mount on the card 
  3.  #4 – Red Ruby (5-1): Failed as 4-5 choice in the G3 Honeybee when fourth with no apparent excuse; trainer K. Gorder is 0 for 28 in graded stakes races the past few years but wouldn’t ship from Kee unless she felt her filly belongs based on her winning with 26% of beaten favorites in their next outing; moves up on an “off” track


Race 12 
is the $100k Hilltop ON THE TURF

  1.   #8 – Thewayiam (3-5): We know, thanks Capt. Obvious! As long as this stays on the turf, if not she’ll likely be scratched; winner of 4 of 6 turf races since arriving in the U.S. with two of those in G3 events
  2.   #1 – Peach of a Gal (10-1): Conquered MD-bred/sired group when returning home after spending winter at Tam to break maiden and progress to a troubled run in G3 FL Oaks; faces tall task but turf speed figs are decent; another likely scratch if taken off the turf
  3. #10 – Judge Lee (30-1): Makes fifth career start, first on the turf; this gray daughter of Street Sense out of an El Prado mare should take to the grass like a duck to water; adding blinkers three back was a winning move;  price will be more attractive on turf than off it

Race 13 is the $150k G3 Allaire DuPont Distaff

  1.  #1 – Fuhriously Kissed (5-1): Ran her eyeballs out in G1 Apple Blossom Hcp to earn SHOW purse just one race after being claimed for $62k; 103 career best BRIS# came at this distance on a sloppy track by 4-lengths over #7 in here; will need early pace help to be heard from in deep stretch
  2. #7 – Blue Prize (4-1): May only face an early challenge from one other rival (#4) which will make her trip much easier than previous graded stakes efforts; third start since layoff and always part of Trifecta at distance (5:2-2-1) and when the track is “off” (3:1-1-1) makes her the one to beat
  3. #6 – Verve’s (9-5): Logical program choice as she’s hit the board in 18 of 19 starts consistently earning BRIS#s in the high 90s while competing in more than twice as many graded stakes events (9) than her closest competitors; an “off” track is her Achilles Heel (4:0-2-0)

Race 14 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Magical (4-1): Impressive maiden win in second career start after being much the second best in debut; royally bred but continues to go the sprint rout  
  2. #12 – Line of Music (6-1): Can handle on or off turf situation; earned a 92 turf BRIS# in first race after 7-month layoff; tries to make third straight trip to Winners’ Circle      
  3. #7 – Grogger (20-1): Will be heard from late… if at all has she has 1/16th less real estate to get there; third start after layoff 

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Thurday May 17th at Pimlico had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $14.20 (1st race), $4.40 (4th), $3.00 (8th) and $5.40 (9th). Top Selections are 157 for 553 (28.39%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (59:15-14-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Reality Queen (7th race: 5-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) three deep around the turn, chased the winner, but was runner-up to return $3.80 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (57:6-13-8; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Sir Douglas (5th race: 12-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) swung to the four-path leaving the far turn, had a slight rally to finish third and return $3.40 to SHOW.

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