The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 17

by May 17, 2018Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $890.74
  • Super High 5: $854.75
  • Late Pick 5: none[/su_box]

[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]

[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 7 / #4 – Reality Queen (5-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 5 /#9 – Sir Douglas (12-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 2  w/ 7, 8 ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 3, 9 w/ 1, 3, 4 w/ 1, 4, 9 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-4  2, 7 w/ 1, 4, 14 w/ w/ 7, 8 w/ 4, 5, 6, 10 ($24)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  7, 8  w/ 4, 6, 10 ($12)


[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with showers; highs in the low-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY / Turf – OFF  

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1/1A – Final Forum/Arizona Baby (3-1): “Forum” is the best of the MTO entries IMHO; drops back to level where he won two back on a “good sealed” track while “Baby” is a likely scratch as he just raced 4 days ago 
  2. #2 – I Wanda Win (7-2): Didn’t fare well against open $7500 claimers on turf so it’s back to the main track; will be challenged early but gets Pim benefit of needing to get just 5f v. 5 1/2f
  3. #11 – King’s House (6-1): One of the surviving MTO entries who stays in; backed up badly versus top pick two back on a “good” track; Vargas rides this one instead of AE #14 who will go

Race 2

  1. #8 – Sventastic (8-1): Drops to the bottom level seeking after four ugly finishes since coming off a 26-month layoff; has flash a bit of early speed without the stamina to run on; might catch a sloppy track, the type of surface of his lone win
  2. #7 – Patriot Saint (9-2): Melted down in gate last outing so draw a line through it plus rough trips in previous two give him every reason to get to Winners’ Circle this time
  3. #3 – Freedom Storm (12-1): Going with the Lightbulb Theory as this 3-year-old earned diploma in latest, his first start in ’18 though it was at CT; nice late run after a slow start gives hope to be optimistic against this group

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Mutaraamy (5-2): MTO entry broke maiden 13 races back, has been in-the-money since relocating from NY (3:0-2-1); will have has no issue on the off track
  2. #2 – Out At Eight (7-2): Beaten favorite in east coast debut for trainer C. Gonzalez by way of GG but was carried out at the quarter pole; can make amends in here 
  3. #9 – Kaboom (8-1): Another west coast export (from SA) has had two starts east and didn’t get away from the gate cleanly in both… the third time is the charm?

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Race 4

  1. #3 – No Refunds (5-2): Took plenty of early action at the windows for debut but came up a head short in 3-way photo; wheels right back after a maintenance work 
  2. #1 – Margie Is Livid (5-2): Got the worst of the aforementioned 3-way photo as she and the top pick did the dirty work on the front end; breaking from the rail puts her at a disadvantage
  3. #4 – Montana Sunset (2-1): Wesley Ward trainee didn’t fire in her debut which is news along with fact she wasn’t betting favorite; probably not the talent connections expected so she surfaces here

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Sir Douglas (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Makes second start after trainer F. Abbott claim; had a nice late run at this level on turf when given more real estate; the fact he stay in to run on the main is a positive sign OR there just isn’t another turf race in his condition coming up
  2. #1 – Mr McGinty (6-1): Only mount on the card for J. Ferrer; been training at Mth and will try to take advantage of rail to go coast-to-coast
  3. #4 – English Tudor (3-1): Though bred to race on turf has handled the off track as well as the grass so it makes sense to run and take advantage of 20% purse increase for this off the turf race   

Race 6

  1. #7 – Cash Exchange (9-2): Jury seems to still be out on whether trainer F. Allen, III wants this gelding to run on turf or dirt as 2 of 5 starts were on turf, but results less desirable than dirt; he gets slop today and is better at this level on the main track 
  2. #2 – Colonel Crawford (4-1): Exits two-turn turf event showing he did care to go that long; cuts back to sprint and on the main surface; broke maiden 4 back by 10-lengths in the slop
  3. #8 – To Blave (7-2): Just 1 for 24, 0 for 9 going 6f and was runner-up in lone Pim outing; makes first start of ’18 since after being transferred back to trainer K. Rubley 

Race 7 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Reality Queen (5-1): *** BEST BET *** Second start of ’18 and second one with blinkers she should improve off that SHOW effort especially since she had an eventful trip
  2. #14 – Isoclone (12-1): Interesting that this 4-year-old filly was deep on the AE List but trainer J. Lawrence elects to run her; second race after 1 year layoff as she showed speed in first one going long then gave way; back to sprint in here
  3. #1A – Bellerue (10-1): KY-bred FTS by Quality Road out of a Belong to Me mare shows a long string of works, evenly spaced leading up to today’s debut which she only gets in as a MTO entry

Race 8

  1. #7 – Legit (7-5): Made a statement in debut at GP winning by 7+ lengths for trainer T. Pletcher; whoever decided on this son of Curlin’s name obviously knew the future was bright
  2. #4 – Zig Zillion (12-1): House horse didn’t respond to Lasix and blinkers in first start with trainer J. Corrales but it could have been the added distance or facing elders; regardless he got the ultimate equipment change (gelded) 
  3. #8 – American Lincoln (4-1): Ascending BRIS#s in spite of fourth-place finish in Tesio behind Preakness starter Diamond King; top pick could be the real deal but this one has run against better

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #10 – Popular Avenue (6-1): Logical pick being the lone MTO entry; takes huge drop from MSW to $16kMCL in hopes of earning diploma; appears he’ll need to do it in gate-to-wire fashion
  2. #4 – Quickhatch (8-1): 4-year-old mixed it up early with the #6 in here in latest; couldn’t get last 1/16th but won’t need to today as the distance is that much shorter
  3. #6 – For Brandy (9-2): Showed early foot in first start of ’18, second overall when given Lasix for first time and sent off at 33-1; 3-year-old can get it done versus elders



  • On Sunday May 13th at Pimlico had 7 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $8.00 (2nd race), $3.80 (4th), $7.40 (5th) $4.40 (6th) $7.40 (8th), $2.40 (9th) and $16.00 (9th). Top Selections are 158 for 554 (28.52%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (58:15-13-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Roman Officer (2nd race: 8-5 M/L; 1-1 PT) broke alertly and established command off the inside, handled outside pressure then went clear nearing the lane, widened a bit past the three-sixteenths, met the winner’s charge inside the sixteenth marker, faded but saved the place to return $2.80 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (56:6-13-7; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Towson (4th race: 12-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) intent on getting the early lead, did so through the backstretch along the rail when challenged at the far turn, could not keep pace and weakened to finish fifth.