The GQ Approach – Laurel May 6

by | May 6, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $4,266
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First Time Starter - A decently-bred horse from a good barn showing a consistent (every 6-7 days) work pattern with the last one from the gate can be a good bet.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #1 – A Great Time (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 /#3 – Thirst for Truth (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 3  w/ 2, 3  ($8)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  2, 5 w/ 1, 7, 12 w/ 3, 5 w/ 4 w/ 1, 4 w/ 1, 2, 3, 6 ($19.20)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1  w/ 2, 3 ($4)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy with showers late; highs in the mid-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 2nd, 5th, 8th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM  

Closing Day at Laurel – Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #3 – Dorothyfromdublin (2-5): Due to Derby Hangover, today’s analysis will be brief… she won latest by 11-lengths v. $5kN3L and was claimed; back to back wins look realistic v. this group
  2. #1 – Boosting (6-1): Has a chance to upset in gate-to-wire fashion as her foes lack the early speed to go with her early
  3. #6 – Li’lbito’gold (15-1): Third race after layoff and has been getting a minor share at this level 

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Brickyard Kitten (3-1): Won latest when first start since Jan. against open $7500 claimers; stretches out an extra 1/16th which he can handle based on pedigree
  2. #2 – Jump Street Hero (8-1): First start of ’18; both turf victories came at Pen but is used to facing foes in start allowance events
  3. #1/1A – Prime Time Man/Spirit Grabber (7-5): Dynamic Duo for trainer K. Magee who also trains top pick; the “Man” should get a stalking trip and “Grabber” will duel with #6 early to make sure pace is honest

Race 3

  1. #1 – Ms. Picadilly (3-1): Have said this before but she hasn’t cooperated… has the early speed to clear from others and hang on late; she’s the only 4-year-old in against 3-year-olds
  2. #7 – Faint Hearted (7-2): Trainer “Ham” Smith puts his FTS where they can be successful especially with this ownership group who includes trainer Dale Romans’ brother Jerry
  3. #6 – Pictura (5-2): Scratched from a turf event yesterday to help fill this one which she has a better chance to earn her diploma in anyway

Race 4

  1. #2 – Stevie’s Joy (4-1): Wanted turf in his debut but settled for slop; made nice late run after walking out of gate in a sprint; stretches out to one mile
  2. #3 – Lovely Games (9-5): Logical choice but 0 for 16 with just one ITM money makes her vulnerable; sheds blinkers today
  3. #5 – Candlestick Nic (2-1): Four races, all 6 furlongs; those have running lines the suggest he may enjoy having more real estate to cover

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Conquest See Ya (5-2): After getting shutout in ’17 (0 for 8); made ’18 debut a winning one when dropped to this level and cutting back to turf sprint; claimed by trainer R. Sillaman, this one can repeat versus this bunch 
  2. #7 – Mr. October (9-2): Makes first turf start since last Oct.; always gives an honest effort but arrives on scene too late; needs pace help
  3. #12 – Robey’s Boy (5-1): Another one who does all of his running in deep stretch; probably needed that last one, his first in 6-months

Race 6

  1. #3 – Mila Jane (6-5): Likes this distance (6:3-1-0) when properly placed; takes huge class drop after in latest at $25k level which she conquered three back; out of conditions so connections might want to “get while the gettin’s good”
  2. #5 – One Last Cast (4-1): There’s enough early speed to possibly soften up top pick to be vulnerable; if that happens this gal could be the beneficiary
  3. #4 – All Good Times (10-1): Six-wide run when bridesmaid to #5 in latest; 10 lb. bug retains mount for her efforts in that one

Race 7

  1. #4 – Big City Blues (8-5): Unintentionally changes tactics in latest as he was off slowly but rated nicely to take lead entering stretch and was all out to hold off a rival
  2. #5 – Syndicate Saver (3-1): Third start after brief layoff; won latest by a whisker at Prx versus similar when 9-1; improved 20 BRIS points in that one though and could regress
  3. #1 – Snow Fighter (9-5): Drops back to a more competitive level after showing nothing against tougher foes; cut back to one turn mile might be what he needs; part of Exacta in all 3 Lrl efforts  

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – A Great Time (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Picks a nice spot for first races in 15-months; competed in stakes company last back then; has nine published work, without missing one of them leading up to second career “debut”; broke maiden in first one on this same turf course
  2. #4 – Bioterp (3-1): Can boast best career turf BRIS# which she earned in her latest turf effort which was last Nov.
  3. #5 – Fear No Evil (4-1): Spent winter at GP racing twice… just missed by a nose in first try when 13-1 then was flat in next outing… both against stiffer competition  

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Thirst for Truth (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Made third turf start in latest outing and ran on late when sent off lukewarm favorite; stretch out makes sense as her best speed figure was earned going on mile… gets two turns today
  2. #2 – Darcy Mae (2-1): Trainer K. Rubley runners has prospered since turf season began at Lrl; returned north from Tam in March and has steady works; never worse than second in 3 turf tries
  3. #6 – Grand Folly (5-2): Formerly trained by M. Stidham; trainer R. Graham appears to have had this one since her last start which was 7-months ago; nice work pattern leading up to today

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday May 5th at Laurel had 10 winners from the 12-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $11.00 (1st race), $7.00 (2nd), $10.80 (3rd), $8.00 (4th), $13.60 (5th), $4.00 (6th), $5.00 (7th), $5.40 (8th), $12.60 (11th) and $4.60 (12th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 paid $98.30 (cost: $13.50) and the R11-R12 $2 DOUBLE paid $58.40 (cost: $12). . Top Selections are 151 for 507 (29.78%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (53:15-10-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Noregretsfornow (4th race: 9-2 M/L; 7-2 PT) chased the pace, drifted to the six-path rounding the turn then outfinished in the stretch duel for third.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (52:6-12-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Glittering Judy (12th race: 12-1 M/L; 6-5 PT) Quickly took the lead and rated the pace inside, was pressured for run midway on the turn and dug in under determined handling to just last and return $4.60 to WIN, $3.20 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.

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