The GQ Approach – Laurel May 5

by | May 5, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,445.37
  • Super High 5: $955.94
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Always tell the truth. Then you don't have to remember anything.Mark Twain Roughin' it
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 / #4 – Noregretsfornow (9-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 12 /#3 – Glittering Judy (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 5  w/ 2, 4  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  4, 5, 9  w/ 3, 4, 5 w/ 2, 5, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-3  3, 6, 7 w/ 2, 3, 7 w/ 3, 6, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 11 – $2 Double  4, 6, 10  w/ 3, 4 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy; highs in the low-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 11th, 12th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM  

Derby Day Early Post Time 12:15pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Kodachi (5-1): Comes off 7-month layoff; had a nice turf debut then; has plenty of works at Fai to be ready today
  2. #2 – Admiration (6-1): Pimentel takes over for trainer B. Timble’s fiancé (S. Russell) who’d rather ride #4 for trainer M. Dickinson… hmmm; not taking the bait, maybe you should 
  3. #7 – Captain Hardship (9-5): Has always picked up a check since arriving in the U.S. last year; 5 races later he’s still a maiden; first start since last Nov.

Race 2

  1. #2 – Cannon’s Roar (9-2): Fresh off maiden score when he finally got a clean trip following four straight troubled ones; draws a soft crew for his initial try against winners
  2. #4 – Out At Eight (8-5): Seen this film before… west coast runner transferred to trainer C. Gonzalez barn and immediately moves forward
  3. #1 – Took Over (5-2): Has the speed to go gate-to-wire; exits a couple CT allowance level events to return to scene of maiden win v. $40kMCL

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Zensational Dancer (9-2): Third race after layoff; last one proved you could toss his first one as he’s a cut below that level
  2. #4 – Missworldvenezuela (3-1): Exits the friendly speed-favoring confines of the GP turf; luckily the Lrl grass has held speed well 
  3. #9 – Sweethearted (6-1): Takes class drop and switches to turf where she’s failed to hit the board twice before; that was long before apprentice W. Hamilton came on the scene

Race 4

  1. #4 – Noregretsfornow (9-2): *** BEST BET *** As honest as the day is long with two wins and two runner-up finishes from four starts with trainer C. Lynch; plenty of early speed in here to stalk
  2. #5 – In Him With Him (4-1): Realized in latest that turf may not be for him; draws a soft group that might get him back to Winners’ Circle  
  3. #3 – Punch Your Brother (10-1): Third race after layoff; gets J. Davis in the irons who was aboard when this one broke his maiden at Pen

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Sudden Hope (5-1): Candidate to go gate-to-wire as this group lacks the early speed types to challenge her early, so she could have enough left in the tank to hold off all rivals late
  2. #7 – Jokers Tothe Right (4-1): When sitting in the Lrl Press Box, often wonder “… clowns to the left of me…”; I digress… this one has ascending BRIS#s and you can’t beat getting a 30% trainer/jock combo with lone starter
  3. #5 – Hip Hop (15-1): Though just one turf start from her eleven, and finishing fourth, her BRSI# was good enough to be the best in this group

Race 6

  1. #6 – Union Blues (5-2): This one flamed out fast with a short-lived, meteoric rise from $5k claimer to two-time beaten favorite in AlwN1x; connections just want to be shown the money and/or cut bait
  2. #3 – Sir Bond (3-1): Makes second start for trainer R. Sillaman after this 9-year-old gelding was claimed in three consecutive races; drops back to level where he was runner-up twice recently
  3. #7 – El Grillo (8-1): Returns to the main dirt oval after a pair of “OK” turf tries; got SHOW purse last dirt start versus similar company   

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Nickyrocksforpops (7-2): Returns from a 6-month vacation after training on the farm; owns career best BRIS turf number (93) of this bunch
  2. #2 – Peach of a Gal (3-1): Not a bad effort in the G3 FL Oaks on turf at Tam when 66-1 just 5+ lengths behind winner even after encountering traffic at the 1/8 pole
  3. #7 – Ghoul’s Night Out (5-1): This Ghostzapper filly out of a Not for Love mare should take to the turf in her tenth career outing  

Race 8

  1. #8 – Queen of Checkmate (9-2): Paid instant dividends for trainer C. Gonzalez in first start after claim earning a gutsy victory; takes another step up 
  2. #3 – Chancee (12-1): Three-race win streak came to an end in latest effort when stumbled while exiting starting gate, rushed to lead but couldn’t hold off rivals; claimed by trainer S. Lake
  3. #6 – Aunt Esther (12-1): Might be a bit short on class but makes up for it in early speed; she’ll be on the lead but the question is for how long?

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Holiday Hopes (6-1): Best finish from eleven starts came last June on the Lrl lawn going this distance, the only time she raced this distance; gets W. Hamilton in irons seeking riding title
  2. #1 – War Tweet (9-2): A reoccurring theme with these turf races as most runners are having the moth balls brushed off them; just four works yet went 6f in latest while this event is only 5½f
  3. #9 – Dendrobia (10-1): No Lasix in either start which occurred last Fall, both sprints on turf as is this one; she’s just a 3 y.o. facing elders but has pedigree to improve with age 

Race 10

  1.  #9 – Sir Alfred (5-2): Takes advantage of condition to be protected as he raced for $14k tag in Jan.; gets a motivated J. Vargas, Jr. in the irons
  2.  #7 – Royal Crusader (7-2): Small barn having a good year (2 for 4) as this gelding has accounted for one of the wins and was runner-up in previous start versus better
  3.  #3 – Roethlisberger (4-1): Having a good year… the horse that is… hasn’t missed a check in last 7 efforts; was part of the Exacta for 6 straight until latest when in against a tough Alw25000s group

Race 11 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #4 – Dance Queen (7-2): Two weeks short of a 1-year layoff; all 3 career efforts have been on turf at one mile; a quintet of A.M.  drills include a 5f bullet in latest
  2.  #6 – Riley’s Choice (9-5): No doubt has the class edge over this group but may need one as she makes ’18 debut and sprinting is not her game
  3. #10 – Keep Your Distance (8-1): Very quick from the gate whether in sprints or going long; just one start sprinting on turf resulted in earning SHOW purse; catch her if you can

Race 12 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Glittering Judy (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Normally not attracted to FTS offered for $16k tag but this 3-year-old has turf breeding by Kantharos out of a Texas Glitter mare with plenty of works
  2. #6 – Egber (4-1): 0 for 13, just 0 for 6 on turf and away since last August; trainer N. Heil seeking first win of ’18; attract bug W. Hamilton who’s in a fight for the jock title 
  3. #5 – Virginia Fable (9-2): Lone turf try came last Sept. in second start in the VA-bred Jamestown stakes; was “Unruly; wide” but at least showed some interest; third start since layoff

For Kentucky Derby analysis & selections click HERE

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday May 4th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $10.00 (1st race), $8.20 (2nd), $2.80 (4th) $3.60 (5th) $3.40 (7th) and $5.00 (10th). Top Selections are 147 for 495 (29.70%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (52:15-10-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Chubby Star (9th race: 3-1 M/L; 3-2 PT)   three wide both turns, floated to the four-path in upper stretch, failed to rally and finished fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (51:5-12-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Eagle Caviar (9th race: 8-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) hugged the inner rail, disputed the pace and faltered to finish ninth.

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