The GQ Approach – Laurel May 4

by | May 4, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,953
  • Super High 5: $1,639
  • Late Pick 5: $24,953
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Beaten Favorite - A horse who did not win his/her last race but was the post time favorite often is overlooked by bettors in its next race.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 / #5 – Chubby Star (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 1 /#1 – Eagle Caviar (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 5, 8  w/ 1, 4  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 8, 9  w/ 2, 4, 7 w/ 4, 6, 10 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  2 w/ 4, 8, 9, 10 w/ 3, 4, 7, 9 w/ 5 w/ 3, 5, 8, 9 ($32)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double  2, 5  w/ 5, 8, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Eagle Caviar (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Fifth in debut 3 weeks ago on Lrl dirt when forwardly placed in quick early fractions; switches to turf with pedigree on top and bottom to improve on this surface
  2. #5 – Paid Holiday (8-1): Has faced some very fast runners in his four career outings; makes turf debut which he’s certainly tested where he trains at Fai, if not over the synthetic there 
  3. #8 – Smokin Hot Factor (7-2): Has switched barns for the third time in as many starts, last raced over 10-months ago, blinkers off and the ultimate equipment change… gelded; nice works

Race 2

  1. #1 – Here’s Paco (2-1): Co-leading rider of the meet takes over as his rival (on #7)… not sure whose choice, but turf-to-dirt and slight cut back in distance is attractive
  2. #4 – Brahms Romp (7-2): Honest running 3-year-old has been part of Exacta in his last four; steps up to level he found more challenging but has matured since then
  3. #3 – Gorsuch (6-1): Small barn makes a stop at Lrl after competing at OP and gets capable CT rider G. Almodovar to come to Lrl for lone mount; was aboard for maiden win at The Big T last year

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Mr. Magician (6-1): There’s plenty of early speed signed on here to provide this deep closer the perfect pace scenario the pass all rivals late
  2. #9 – Ready Aim (7-2): Cuts back to turf sprint after he’s been racing two turns in all four previous turf tries while all dirt starts have been sprinting; drops a level and not in for the tag
  3. #2 – Far From Awesome (10-1): Doesn’t need to be (awesome)… very good will do against this group as he makes turf debut with bloodlines to support the trainers decision to try it

Race 4

  1. #4 – Ballard High (1-1): NY-based shipper for trainer L. Rice has been twice runner-up at this one mile distance at Aqu while being forwardly placed; regressed slightly in latest off a 90 BRIS# two back
  2. #2 – Calvi (5-1): FTS by Red Giant out of a Joan of Arc mare is one of two elders in against a group of 3-year-olds; J. Toledo gets the call who has ridden 3 winners for G. Motion in just 8 tries
  3. #7 – Major Attitude (6-1): The other 4-year-old in this field happens to be uncouple entry for Motion; this one got an education in debut going two turns; should get pace help

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Feelin Foxie (7-5): Rough trip in an off the turf MSW in slop at FG resulted in second straight runner-up finish; gets back on turf and BRIS numbers v. foes are favorable to earn her diploma    
  2. #6 – Bash (5-1): Been burning a lot of bettors money as she’d failed as prohibitive Post Time favorite in last two; makes turf and two turn debut which could be exactly what she’s been craving
  3. #10 – Sunrusebersteini (3-1): A 6-year-old maiden with just 4 career starts screams of health issues as her last start was over 21-months ago! In the capable hands of trainer D. Dilodovico who starts no runner before their time

Race 6

  1. #2 – Temple Sky (3-1): Tossing latest on turf which was her second career start after winning debut; field lacks early speed so a quick exit from the gate like in debut gets her back to Winners’ Circle
  2. #1/1A – Local Thriller/Janes Brew (7-2): Scratch the #1A who carried the early speed but sticking with stablemate as the lesser of the two usually puts in a top effort in this scenario
  3. #7 – Cyndara (8-1): Lightbulb Theory here as she was dropped continuously dropped in class to bottom maidens, earning diploma coincidentally when switched to S. Russell in irons; can make it two in a row

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Shoe Loves Shoe (2-1): Speedy Sagamore gelding conquered foes in The Big A in latest when equipped with blinkers; will have plenty of company pressing him early in turf debut 
  2. #9 – A Great Time (7-2): Away from the races for 14-months has been training in earnest the past two; she can score right off the bench as she did in career debut though facing boys for the first time  
  3. #4 – Joseph (6-1): A seasoned turf runner for trainer R. Jenkins who can win in first race after a length layoff especially since he’ll have plenty of leg-weary foes to pass in deep stretch with his strong closing kick 

Race 8

  1. #4 – Rare Notion (5-2): Connections felt they had the goods with this one in his debut (Feb. 4) when sent off 2-1 second choice but bad racing luck intervened; trainer K. Voss is 2 for 6 with positive ROI with second career race runners 
  2. #9 – Verse (7-2): Home/KY-bred FTS by Tale of the Cat out of a Tiznow mare, this 4-year-old has not missed a scheduled work for trainer G. Motion over past 3 months, which includes plenty at 5f and concludes with a gate drill
  3. #3 – Top Czar (4-1): Uncoupled stablemate of #9 worked with that one, going toe-to-toe so it might be personal preference on which jock you trust

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Chubby Star (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Makes ’18 debut after passing up grass races at GP yet trained in So. FL this winter; work tab looks outstanding; just missed getting black-type on two occasions; trainer/jock combo have been to Winners’ Circle 5-times from just 7 starts
  2. #2 – Quick Witted (8-1): Got the winter off to re-energize for local turf season; 2 for 2 at this distance and earned career best 92 BRIS# in final turf race of 3-year-old campaign
  3. #8 – Advert (8-1): Makes trip down from Pen as she’s done twice before (2:1-0-1); can get a nice stalking trip and get first run on leg weary front runners to make things difficult on Best Bet

Race 10

  1.  #9 – Slim (7-2): Seventeen-time loser has at least been paying the bills with 11 ITM finishes and no worse than sixth in his career, speed figures have been ascending over last 3 outings
  2.  #5 – Love N Kimestry (9-2): Rougher up at the start with W. Hamilton back in the irons still rallied for SHOW purse in slop earning career high speed figure; fast track could help
  3.  #8 – Ten Dollar Hammer (8-5): Was a vet scratch last weekend when in for $16k; they usually recover quickly when a softer spot comes up; runner-up in last race that produced two next out winners

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Thursday May 3rd at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 10-race card (No Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.40 (2nd race), $12.60 (3rd), $7.00 (7th) and $5.00 (8th). Top Selections are 144 for 485 (29.69%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (51:15-10-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Ballivor (8th race: 3-1 M/L; 9-5 PT) to  settled off the pace, commenced a run mid-way on the turn, circled five wide and rallied mildly to finish third and return $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (50:5-12-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Cruise More (9th race: 12-1 M/L; 17-1 PT) was forwardly placed, saved ground to the far turn and faltered to finish sixth.

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