The GQ Approach – Laurel May 3

by | May 3, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,187
  • Super High 5: $3,508
  • Late Pick 5: $8,866
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #6 – Ballivor (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #12 – Cruise More (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  5, 8, 9  w/ 1, 7  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  3, 8, 10  w/ 7, 8, 10 w/ 4, 9, 10 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  5, 8 w/ 4, 10, 11 w/ 4, 6 w/ 3, 5, 12 w/ 3, 6, 7 ($54)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double  3, 5, 12  w/ 3, 6, 7 ($18)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – R Bling Shines (4-1): Third start after a one-year layoff as he continues to improve to old form, stepping up in these open claimers
  2. #5 – Last Minute Lucy (5-2): Morning Line favorite in first start after K. Demasi $8k claim when she failed miserably as 2-5 betting choice on Pen slop; returns to turf where she’s made her living
  3. #8 – Kiss the Princess (15-1): Away since last Oct. having raced on synthetic at Pid all of ’17 against better foes fits here seeking first turf win (6:0-3-1) 

Race 2

  1. #1/1A – Goodbyeseeulater/Wise Mac (2-1): Strong duo as “Goodbye” has been ITM all 5 starts in ’18 w/o a win at this level or higher; “Mac” drops in first start after $7500 claim and add blinkers
  2. #7 – Minor Legend (9-2): Appears trainer H. McMahon is willing to cut bait with this former $7,500 claim after three tries against allowance company, regressing each time out
  3. #4 – Pachi Cruze (7-2): After winning here at this level two back was up the track at Prx on a step up; did the same routine last Nov. then came back to Lrl and romped

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #3– Kadie’shorseplay (3-1): Returns to turf racing after long layoff; last win came at this distance but that was 17-month ago, always gets at least a minor share
  2.  #8 – No Great Shakes (5-1): Just one length behind top pick in latest, which was 7+ months ago; is a gate-to-wire threat if the Lrl lawn is more firm than last weekend w/o rain all week 
  3. #10 – Standard Deal (10-1): Difficult to believe this mare can get to the wire first since she’s 0 for 16 on the grass but a decent fourth v. open claimers should make these N3L easier to handle

Race 4

  1.  #8 – Candys Delight (3-1): First colt/gelding baby race in MD of ’18 but this fella made his debut at Aqu, getting the SHOW purse when ignored at the windows 25-1; second time out gets it done
  2. #7 – Readytotapit (6-1): KY-bred FTS by Ready’s Image out of a Tapit mare only shows three works but had to do a double-take on that latest one, going one mile?! Would hope he doesn’t “weaken” in debut going just 4 ½ furlongs
  3. #10 – Transom (10-1): Impressive set of works with latest from the gate for this MD-bred son of Bullsbay out of a Meadowlake mare; been a while since barn won with a firster but trainer/jock combo gets to Winners Circle at a 29% clip

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – I B Limmey (10-1): Drops to bottom level maidens for turf after three dirt tries showing brief speed; second time blinkers can work miracles; J. Montanez has developed into a nice turf rider
  2. #9 – Thalia’s Song (9-2): Return Brief speed when racing on dirt in first two tries after D. Capuano $25k claim last Oct. at Pid where she ran better on the synthetic which translates to turf
  3.  #4 – Final Fear (7-2): Followed up a promising debut run with a clunker when adding blinkers, which stay on today; breeding is far from turf but a “gray on the grass” is worth a shot on the drop

Race 6

  1. #5 – No Soup for You (7-5): Catches a very soft field for first start after trainer D. Capuano $7500 claim but drops a level now that he’s “out of jail”; blinkers back on; ITM 4 of 5 outings at this distance
  2. #8 – Canna Red (10-1): Turf to dirt angle here and drops as part of an uncoupled entry for trainer D. Capuano; have to figure one of these two were entered to make sure the race went, right?
  3. #1 – Senora de Lujan (8-1): Makes third start after nearly a 3 YEAR layoff; this 8-year-old mare hit the board in her first two and gets reunited with jock T. Hole who rode her to last victory in Mar. ‘15

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Enough Is Enough (5-2): Game turf runner has the speed figs to win here but hasn’t seen Winners’ Circle since Preakness Week last year; won’t get a call until the field turns for home      
  2. #10 – Gunnison (7-2): Could be a gate-to-wire candidate as he got off slow in latest facing tougher at Kee though v. his peers (3 y.o.); takes on elders for the first time today
  3. #11 – Promote (20-1): Liked his late interest in turf bow sprinting just 2 weeks ago; with his bloodlines he should enjoy going two turns     

Race 8

  1. #6 – Ballivor (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Gets back to favorite distance after a troubled trip going shorter yet managed to rally late just missing runner-up spot as the top two both came back to win in their next outing 
  2. #4 – Stolen Love (5-2): Found the Fountain of Youth at the tender age of 8 being able to compete once again at this higher level
  3. #5 – Daily News (4-1): BRIS numbers just a tad behind the top two but previous success has come in these restricted upper level events

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #12 – Cruise More (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ All the turf-specialist are resurfacing at Lrl thanks to the late local Spring weather; this 10-year-old has been patiently doing this prep work in the A.M. with 6 evenly spaced works, each progressing in more distance; will need help on the front end early to make his late run
  2.  #5 – Zen’s Land (10-1): Beaten favorite in last try prior to end of turf season v. open claimers; just 3 works coming into ’18 debut might leave him short of top effort but good enough to be a threat
  3.  #3 – Cordmaker (5-1): 3-year-old makes turf debut and against elders; shocked he shows up here as this capper believed he was good enough to compete on Preakness Day 

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #7 – Petticoatsnpistols (5-1): Among the most experienced maidens in here with her best finish being third, which she’s accomplished seven times from 12 starts! Gets S. Hamilton back in the irons who has been aboard for 5 of those 7; first start since Dec. could mark a fresh attitude 
  2.  #3 – Lady of the Empire (9-2): Royally bred filly away since last Aug. when she ran on late in her debut in grass at Del; was turned out until mid-March and has a steady stream of works; adds Blinkers
  3.  #6 – Issue a Warrant (10-1): 4-year-old stopped when blinkers were added and asked to stretch out to 7 furlongs; first turf try, shortens up and keeps blinkers on is a good move for this speedy filly 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday April 29th at Laurel was a blood-bath having just 3 winners from the 11-race card (No Top Selection winners) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $17.00 (1st race), $18.400 (7th) and $6.60 (8th). Top Selections are 144 for 475 (30.32%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (50:15-10-7; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Happiness (10th race: 2-1 M/L; 4-5 PT) hopped at the break, regrouped, was rushed between foes, pulled herself to the lead, took pressure into the stretch, kept on until mid-stretch then weakened to finish sixth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (49:5-12-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Real Power (5th race: 8-1 M/L; 12-1 PT) steadied in close quarters approaching the first turn, raced three-wide, lacked a rally and finished fifth.

Check out...