The GQ Approach – Laurel April 29

by | Apr 29, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $398.50
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Lone Mount - Depending on how many mounts a jockey typically gets on a given day, if a jock only has one mount, especially towards the end of the day, that horse warrants a second look.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 10 / #2 – Happiness (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #8 – Real Power (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 6  w/ 4, 9  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  4, 7, 9  w/ 1, 5, 6 w/ 7, 8, 13 ($13.50)
  • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick-5  8, 10 w/ 7, 8, 9 w/ 3, 6, 8 w/ 2, 6 w/ 4, 5, 10 ($54)
  • Race 10 – $2 Double  2  w/ 4, 5, 10 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy; highs in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 5th, 7th, 9th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Railroader (8-5): First start since being gelded and in for the $40k tag after a pair of turf distance races at Tam to start career; debut w/o Lasix was better than second outing with it but this is a weak group
  2. #1 – Whiskey Wu (15-1): Sheds blinkers and stretches out to two turns after five career sprints, the latest on turf which was uninspiring; good news is bug W. Hamilton stays aboard
  3. #5 – Paratycachaca (5-2): Flashed some ability on grass in Fall but got no love at the windows (27-1 and higher); makes first start of ’18 for trainer KTL following a nice work pattern of five drills

Race 2

  1. #9 – No Refunds (4-1): This is the first “baby” (aka 2-year-old) race of the year in MD and as in the past, the Salzman family presence is felt; John Jr. will saddle this MD-bred Buffum filly who has generated some buzz on the Lrl backside; like the work pattern
  2. #4 – Pretty Rich (6-1): One of two being sent out be trainer A. Farrior; this KY-bred Can the Man filly out of an Alphabet Soup mare shows five evenly spaced works with latest from the gate
  3. #5 – Margie Is Livid (5-1): KY-bred Temple City filly out of a Cape Town mare is conditioned by C. Lynch who has the highest win pct. (19%) with 2-year-olds of trainers with runners in here

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Patriot Saint (6-1): Rough starts in last two compromised his trips going 6 furlongs then one mile; cuts back to 7 furlongs in hopes of a clean break
  2. #7 – Shoot the Gap (4-1): Going with the Lightbulb Theory in that he broke his maiden in latest, his 11th career start by the smallest of margins at the bottom but had been knocking at the door versus better; can repeat with similar effort
  3. #4 – Homer Haps (5-1): Game try in second start versus winners when breaking from rail and sent early which was not his usual running style; BRIS#s been climbing

Race 4

  1. #5 – Howyaformoney (8-1): Field lacks early speed so even though this gelding has been weakening in the latter stages; 10lb. bug in last outing rushed him after hesitating at the start; a more experienced rider gets the call here  
  2. #6 – Likeitlikethat (2-1): Third start after layoff but failed miserably in first two when took plenty of action (7-2 & 9-5); will try to regain form from last Fall as he’s reunited with F. Lynch  
  3. #1 – Bob’s My Uncle (3-1): Difficult to recommend on top (2 for 39; 0 for 17 at the distance) but last times his odds were this short, he earned the SHOW purse

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Real Power (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Traffic troubles inhibited any chance to making an impact in latest outing which was first in quite some time; 9-year-old owns a nice turf record and capable of better based on speed figures from his past         
  2. #7 – Greek God (5-1): Don’t look now but J. Pimentel is on a hot streak while being one of the better local turf riders; this gelding shows up in every start and should move up returning to turf
  3. #13 – El Grillo (5-1): Sneaks in off the Also-Eligible list, got a taste of turf when he raced in a sprint two weeks back for a public workout because he’s used to being in front going long, which will be the tactic today

Race 6

  1. #7 – Mad Dog Matters (2-1): Past performances have the look of a lifetime maiden as this gray filly has improved since getting more ground but unable to stretch early speed with blinkers on the extra furlong; no others in here have proven early speed; no excuses today
  2. #4 – Special Included (3-1): Nice stalking trip but couldn’t get to winner in third career start, first going one mile; a repeat of that race gets her to Winners’ Circle
  3. #5 – Striking Damsel (4-1): KY-bred FTS by Smart Strike out of a Tiznow mare, so going one mile in debut should not be an issue as trainer G. Motion debut runners earn diploma at a 20% clip when going one mile or more

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Boot Scootin Daddy (5-1): Hasn’t competed since July ’16 in the G3 Prx Dash yet has been on a strict training routine for the past four months firing plenty of bullets; should be ready
  2. #8 – Square Shooter (8-1): Second start with blinkers even though first one didn’t go well; ships in from Bel foor trainer J. Englehart who ships to win (2:1-1-0) 
  3. #3 – Miners Quest (10-1): One for your exotics underneath (52:5-7-13); returns to where he does his running late; needs pace help and a firmer turf which was tough on deep closers yesterday

Race 8

  1. #7 – Bringyourownbottle (5-1): First start after trainer W. Potts $15k claim at FG when an easier winner, her fourth in just eight starts whereas her rivals have only beaten maidens and need the lead, she is comfortable from off the pace
  2. #8 – She’s Quiet (4-1): CT-shipper won in her debut by nearly 10 lengths going 4 1/2 furlongs in impressive time; eye-popping work at Lrl last weekend 5f in :58 4/5
  3. #9 – New Year’s Wish (7-5): NY-shipper for trainer L. Rice was very quick early but not so much late though had no resistance from the 4 fillies she destroyed by 8+ lengths in her debut

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Blame the Kids (8-1): Lone entry/mount on the card for CT-base trainer J. Runco and jock A. Bochachica; makes turf debut and has the pedigree to like it; 3-year-old makes first start v. elders
  2. #3 – Souper Platinum (6-1): Away since last Jun when he earned diploma sprinting on the synthetic at Pid; runner-up and SHOW horse came back to win their next start; plenty of A.M. drills perfectly timed for return today
  3. #6 – Meo Desperado (4-1): Was an easy debut winner on a sloppy track three race back then just missed when in against elders going 6f on a fast Lrl surface; Stormy Atlantic on his bottom line will help him handle the turf

Race 10

  1.  #2 – Happiness (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Daughter of Bodemeister won debut by 11-lengths at FG earning a lofty 90 BRIS speed figure; was privately purchased by Glen Hill Farm thereafter and has continued her progression firing two bullets in most recent works; foresee a gate-to-wire score as none of her foes will be as quick as her early; adds Lasix
  2.  #6 – Maya Malibu (3-1): Impressive resume after just four career starts being graded-stakes placed in two G1s last Fall but eased when overmatched in BC Juvenile Fillies; strong work pattern is a trademark of trainer G. Motion runners
  3.  #1 – Tiz the Light (3-1): Tough assignment from the rail as she had in latest at Aqu and had no response when urged; trainer M. Nevin ships in and gives E. Prado sitting on 6,996 career wins the call

Race 11 is ON THE TURF

  1.    #4 – Daniella (8-1): Tries to graduate in 14th try, 11th on turf; draw a line through the dirt outing in March; will be forwardly placed to make every pole a winning one 
  2.  #10 – Auntie Mary (3-1): Been a while since trainer J. Sheppard has had a starter at Lrl, then again turf season is only 2 weeks old; third start after layoff; unable to compete at maiden bottom at GP so north she came to try greener grass at Lrl
  3.    #5 – Cardillia (10-1): Pen-shipper makes turf debut in 8th career start; gray daughter of Paddy O’Prado should take to the turf just fine; trainer nabs hot riding bug W. Hamilton as they’ve teamed up with before (1 for 3) 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • On Saturday April 28th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 12-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $22.60 (2nd race), $5.20 (3rd), $4.60 (8th), $9.40 (9th), $7.20 (11th) and $3.80 (12th). Of the suggested multi-wager plays, hit the R11-R12 $2 DOUBLE paid $23.60 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 144 for 464 (31.03%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (49:15-10-7; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Mihrab (11th race: 3-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) saved ground stalking the pace, angled to the three-path at the head of the lane, split foes, was under energetic urging, drew off to win by eight-lengths and returned $7.20 to WIN, $4.80 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (48:5-12-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) D’wildcat Sunshine (6th race: 8-1 M/L; 11-1 PT) chased the winner, was three wide turning for home, faltered to finish sixth.

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