The GQ Approach – Laurel April 7

by | Apr 7, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $233,622.91
  • Super High 5: $503.65
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #5 – Reality Queen (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #2 – Three Hawk (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 7  w/ 4, 5, 7  ($12)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  3, 4, 7 w/ 1, 5, 6 w/ 1, 2, 3, 8 w/ 5 w/ 2, 5 w/ 2, 7, 8  ($43.20)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  2, 5  w/ 2, 7, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, highs in the mid-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #2 – Zarbanda (2-1): Nearly graduated at 18-1 in first start since last July at Del bottom ($5kMCL); has hit the board in her last four races makes her the logical second choice
  2. #7 – Nancy R (8-5): The “R” stands for “R you ever going to win?!”; 0 for 18 has recently shown early foot under R. Chiappe which is a good thing in here as none of her rivals tend to exit the gate quickly
  3. #1 – Zosia (8-1): Somebody has to be third… second start with blinkers and gets barns exercise rider/jock in the irons so if anyone should know how to get the most out of this gray filly, it should be Ms. K. Francois   

Race 2

  1. #7 – Tiz Surprised (3-1): Returns to trainer G. Capuano’s Lrl barn after a pair of so-so efforts at The Big A in open $20k Claimers; all 4 ITM Lrl starts (4:1-0-3) came against a level higher than today
  2. #5 – Dance and Stroll (8-1): Second start with blinkers and after trainer G. Brooks claim was in over her head while in jail and previously was twice fourth behind two different winning rivals in here; void of early speed as the others have plenty of it 
  3. #4 – Proportionality (4-1): Been facing better since trainer P. Schoenthal $25k claim but the results haven’t been good; multi-class drop gives her a chance to be successful again

Race 3

  1. #5 – Banner Bill (9-2): Beaten favorite in latest when rank and riding the rail should bounce back versus this grew with a better effort; 9-year-old is versatile in that he can close or take lead
  2. #4 – Mid Ocean (10-1): Prefers a track with some moisture but has lost good form since being claimed 3 back by trainer J. Ramirez seeking first win of ’18 (0 for 15); switch to jock familiar with his past success should help
  3. #3 – Greek God (3-1): Last two wins came in gate-to-wire fashion for this beaten favorite who will have company early on; been facing grizzled vets of open $5k claimers versus the today’s conditional claimers

Race 4

  1. #4 – Godlovesasinner (5-2): Seen this movie before where trainer S. Cooney gives leg up to S. Russell on runners first after layoff and win; this 4-year-old wouldn’t be a surprise as he was close to graduating prior to time off
  2. #7 – Zap Cat (9-5): 5-year-old has been burning bettors money for 21 starts so it’s tough to use him on top; seems to need more than 5 1/2 furlongs to graduate 
  3. #3 – Paid Holiday (9-2): Only runner in this event this event to be getting class relief; running style and pedigree suggests he should stretch; past sprints have been much quicker early than most in here have experienced

Race 5

  1. #6 – Gardencity Gambler (6-1): KY-bred daughter of Exchange Rate was a $50k Kee weanling purchase has a nice work tab for trainer W. Potts looking for first debut winner in MSW event in last 9 who he’s entered
  2. #5 – Virginia Fable (10-1): Lofty expectations for this VA-bred last Sept. trying restricted turf stakes after showing brief speed in debut on dirt; was green then so time off to mature may payoff as she fired two bullets in three published works on the Cooney farm
  3. #1 – Pantyhose (7-2): Her does run (get it?) with 6 ITM finishes from 9 career starts; BRIS#s have been ascending since moving north from GP and into trainer K. Decker’s barn; ran behind two who are in today’s (R8) feature

Race 6

  1. #8 – Hell of Afire (4-1): Outside post not ideal with short run up to first turn but this mare relished the stretch back out to two turns in latest coming up just a head short of the win versus similar
  2. #2 – Sneaky Betty (7-2): Sent out by leading trainer C. Gonzalez who has been unable to get more than SHOW purses in three outings since taking over the conditioning duties; should get a perfect ground saving, stalking trip
  3. #1 – Ghoul’s Night Out/Crookit (4-1): The #1 stretches out to two turns and should like it based on pedigree; can boast top BRIS Prime Power# while her elder entrymate is in over her head

Race 7

  1. #5 – Reality Queen (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Daughter of Pioneerof the Nile was put on the shelf for a few months and transferred to Pen-based trainer F. Stites; after two-months of a strict work pattern with two 5f ones from the gate followed by a bullet 4f blow out, assuming with blinkers added, the connections are confident to ship in for better purse
  2. #7 – Toma (15-1): FTS by Overanalyze whose offspring have done well in debut but out of a Lure mare may suggest turf is in her future; work tab is strong enough to warrant a shot despite trainer’s 1 for 19 record at Lrl
  3. #2 – In Jail (2-1): Had a busy 2-year-old campaign (7:0-3-1) in a span of 135 days; was wisely given time off after failing twice as short-priced favorite; trainer M. Trombetta is slightly better after layoff (18%) than win pct. in ’18 (14%)

Race 8

  1. #2 – Three Hawk (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ MD-bred daughter of Violence overcame a ton of obstacles in debut versus $40kMCL foes, finishing up with a strong run in deep stretch; speed figure doesn’t jump out at you but was visually professional and impressive
  2. #5 – Rumor Ridge (8-5): Gate-to-wire candidate will have to fight off rivals pressure early and prove she is as good on a fast track as she’s shown on a “good’ one
  3. #4 – Yes I Dance (5-2): CT-based debut winner on home track took big leap coming to Lrl to face the best local talent, leading early but weakened late; 3-year-old could be growing up quick enough to improve stamina wise to stay on versus these gals

Race 9

  1. #2 – Casino King (5-1): Invader from Prx drops a level after first off-the-board finish in his last six; this one mile distance is his best (4:1-2-0) and can make Lrl debut a winning one
  2. #8 – Kinder (3-1): On paper appears to be the one to beat after runner-up effort versus similar just 14 days ago; jock Y. Ortiz still seeking first win at Lrl since his return 
  3. #7 – Patriot Saint (4-1): Though winless at this distance (5:0-2-1) the bigger issue is he’s 1 for 31 lifetime but the one win came just 3 races back; takes appropriate class drop from $10kN2L

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday April 6th at Laurel had 8 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.80 (1st race), $7.20 (2nd), $2.80 (3rd), $2.60 (4th), $3.80 (5th), $7.20 (6th), $10.20 (7th) and $4.80 (8th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $45.80 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 114 for 365 (31.23%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (39:12-9-5; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Brother Chub (8th race: 5-2 M/L; 7-5 PT) bobbled at the break, quickly recovered and prompted the pace outside STOLEN LOVE, was put to a solid hand ride to maintain position past the five sixteenths, drew alongside into the lane, went head to head through the final sixteenths, gained a narrow advantage late and prevailed in an extended drive to return $4.80 to WIN, $2.60 to PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (38:5-9-5; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Stone Bandit (3rd race: 12-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) lightly bumped with the winner leaving the starting gate, accelerated to the early lead, saved ground around the turn, finished gamely to be second best and return $4.00 to PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW.

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