The GQ Approach – Laurel March 18

by | Mar 18, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $94,896
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2 / #2 – Classic Wildcat (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #2 – Swingstage (15-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 4, 5  w/ 2  ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  3, 5, 6  w/ 1, 5, 8  w/ 2  ($4.50)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  1, 5 w/ 2 w/ 2, 4, 6 w/ 9, 11 w/ 1, 3 w/ 4, 10, 11 ($14.40)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 3  w/ 4, 10, 11 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny, highs in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EST

Race 1

  1. #4 Towson (2-1): Lake trainee ran second against similar two back, drops from fourth-place finish versus much better in last
  2. #5 Polarization (1-1): Ouch! Hard to devalue a horse more aggressively than trainer Chad Brown has this one, a $135,000 auction purchase who debuted for $40,000, plummets in second start
  3. #1 Janelle Dreams (10-1): Ran credibly two back versus similar, though finished well behind choice in here

Race 2

  1. #2 – *** BEST BET *** Classic Wildcat (5-2): Closing sort has kept much better company and will be rolling late if a pace develops
  2. #4 – Final Forum (3-1): Speedy sort arrives off a win at CT two weeks back, loves this track (7-4-1-0)
  3. #1 – Goodbyeseeulater (2-1): In good form now, but winless at the trip makes short odds tough to take

Race 3

  1. #3 – Northern Prancer (3-1): Improved effort last out against similar
  2. #6 – Esken Lady (8-1): Long time since this Jose Corrales trainee found the winner’s circle; gets 10-pound but Lyapustina in the irons
  3. #5 – Hashtag Selfie (1-1): Most lightly raced runner in the group and possesses top speed figs – but trainer Gonzalez has been ice cold the last couple of weeks, and what’s fun about even money?

Race 4

  1. #1 – Star Eighty (8-5): Enters with back-to-back wins versus similar, ran second in only prior try at the trip; may be controlling speed
  2. #5 – Lady Terp (8-1): Looking for improved effort from a runner who’s defeated similar previously
  3. #8 – Miss Nosy (9-2): Has been second and third in recent tries versus similar; rider Gomez faced with making a snap decision out of the gate to avoid getting hung out in the parking lot after short run to first turn

Race 5

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY *** #2 – Swingstage (15-1)Sophomore drops from two dull tries versus much better, added ground may help cause
  2. #5 – Young American (3-1): First off the claim for leading trainer Gonzalez, who legs up go-to rider Torres
  3. #4 – Campari (5-2): Katy Voss trainee looms a major player in just his fifth career start

Race 6 

  1. #6 – Misschief Maas (5-2): Bit of a bridesmaid, with five straight second- or third-place finishes versus similar, finds relatively soft version of this condition to take another swing
  2. #2 – Candycoated Dame (9-2): Credible effort in last versus similar – including choice in here – and added ground a positive
  3. #4 – No Picnic (6-1): Closer will need a pace to develop but could get that; dead-heated for the show with #2 in here last out and is another who’ll benefit from additional half-furlong on offer here

Race 7 

  1. #11 – Moonspell (8-1): Magee trainee drops to level where he’s competed before; added ground a positive and like to see leading jock Vargas remain aboard
  2. #9 – Lacrostix (5-1): Likely speed of the speed can work out a good trip from outer post, arrives at level where he should win
  3. #3 Bob’s My Uncle (15-1): Will be running late and has shown ability to compete with these, though winless skein at the trip a concern

Race 8 

  1. #3 – Ballivor (9-2): A bit of a windmill tilt last out in the G3 General George, but back where he fits, this one rates a big shot here; dominant winner of two straight allowances prior to last
  2. #1 – Laki (9-5): First start in 10 months for talented Dilodovico trainee, who won the ’17 edition of the Not for Love Stakes
  3. #6 – Wild Dreams (7-2): Two straight wins for this Hugh McMahon trainee, who keeps hot-riding bug boy Weston Hamilton (four wins yesterday) in the irons

Race 9 

  1. #10 – Punch Nephew (8-5): Gary Capuano trainee finds bottom level after credible effort versus better
  2. #4 – The Intern (15-1): First try against winners was a mess, but look for an improved effort here, probably from a forward position
  3. #6 – Crazy Wild Bill (8-1): Returns to distance at which he recorded only career victory

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday March 17th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 11-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $14.00 (1st race), $28.40 (2nd), $24.60 (4th), $6.20 (5th), $10.00 (6th), $6.60 (7th), $7.40 (8th), $5.00 (9th) and $4.80 (11th). Top Selections are 89 for 293 (30.38%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (31:9-8-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Annapolis Class (2nd race: 3-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) disputed the pace three wide between rivals, poked a head in front past the three eighths, kept up the battle to upper stretch then faded to finish fourth. 
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (30:4-6-4; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Ten Dollar Hammer (3rd race: 4-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) chased the pace, circled the turn four deep, flattened out to finish fourth. 

Check out...