The GQ Approach – Laurel March 5

by | Mar 5, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $31,205
  • Super High 5: $4,975
  • Late Pick 5: none[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 4 / #5 – Love in Excess (9-2)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 5 / #7 – Lost On the Stairs (8-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  6  w/ 2, 4  ($4)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 3, 4  w/ 1, 3, 5  w/ 2, 5, 7  ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  2, 5, 7  w/ 5  w/ 1, 2, 5  w/ 3, 8  w/ 1, 6  ($18)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  3, 8  w/ 1, 6 ($8)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #6 – Dutch Blitz (4-5): Just missed when returned to appropriate level but was he helped by the sloppy going as previous good outings were on synthetic at WO; only fast, natural dirt race he was buried v. MSW in first race after trainer A. Principe claim; interesting fact that 5 of the 7 runners in here are conditioned by women… you go girls! 
  2. #5 – Zephyr Train (6-1): Continues to slide down the class ladder as he seeks elusive first win in twelfth career start; will keep top pick company in early stages
  3. #4 – Candlestick Nic (10-1): Away since last Oct. when he stopped in second start v. $40kMCL; got gelded and shows just two works; if he runs back to debut race he gets his picture taken

Race 2

  1. #4 – Mutaraabit (9-2): Only entry/mount for Prx-based duo of trainer M. Pino and jock M. Sanchez; took a ton of action (1-1 PT fav.) in debut but got a horrible start then showed willingness to run on late going 7 panels; gets one mile here
  2. #2 – Belfour (8-5): Likely threat to go gate-to-wire but stretching out beyond 6 furlongs for first time in fourth career start; pedigree indicates he’ll handle the added distance
  3. #3 – Admiration (8-1): KY-bred son of Unbridled’s Song out of a Storm Bird mare has a decent work tab to prepare for career debut; jock S. Russell takes the mount on future bride’s runner   

Race 3

  1. #4 – Saint Penny (3-1): After shaking a couple rivals entering the stretch, couldn’t hold off the #2 in here last time but that was going 7f, today is only 6f plus shouldn’t be hounded as bad early  
  2. #2 – Miss Krivoruchka (2-1): Seemed to finally kick into gear in deep stretch to get by top pick; connections passed on an Alw race at CT to stay go here, a rare condition at Lrl $10kn3x but open to any 4-year-olds regardless of number of trips to Winners’ Circle… 4 for this gal
  3. #3 – Dixie Rose (8-1): Well behind the top two in latest after an unorthodox (rank) start but made up ground nicely in the stretch; a threat at a price if L-Rod can get her into stride early
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Race 4

  1. #5 – Love in Excess (9-2): *** BEST BET *** Looking at lone speed here as the #4 led early at CT at a snails’ pace and banking on a similar effort from #7 in second start after a 13-month layoff; hot riding bug W. Hamilton can get trainer R. Bailes first win of ’18 
  2. #1 – Springtime Wind (6-5): 0 for 12 but been facing much better (MSW to $25k MCL recently); has zero speed while closest finish came at this distance by a neck; makes third start after layoff
  3. #3 – Nancy R (7-2): Best races have come on an off track and turf; another making third start after layoff, though much briefer; a slow early pace is not a friend of her late running style

Race 5

  1. #7 – Lost On the Stairs (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Claimed out of $16kMCL victory as trainer G. Brooks took his time to get to know her, gave her two works to prep for first outing v. winners
  2. #5 – Joyful Noise (7-5): Been seeking second career win in over a year but she’s faced much tougher over that time; just missed at this level in latest when turning in career best 79 BRIS# 
  3. #2 – Stay West (3-1): Home-bred for Repole Stable based at Prx in S. Lake barn was very green in maiden win v. $25kMCL, her fourth outing; like the recent works

Race 6

  1. #5 – Chancee (4-5): Been tossed around different barns while winning last three and claimed out of latest; takes the necessary step up while this 3-year-old filly makes sixth start of the year 
  2. #4 – Drops and Buckets (6-1): Dull effort when dropped to this spot, claimed by trainer M. Trombetta (8% off claim) who could find the form she had racing for Sagamore Farm 
  3. #1 – Beryl’s Flight (15-1): Trainer J. Runco ships in this CT-based runner who’s been away from races since breaking maiden at CT in late Nov.; work tab indicates she’s matured

Race 7

  1. #2 – Poco Del Sol (2-1): Only runner in this contest dropping from MSW, retains services of R. Montanez in the irons; has the best early speed rating while cutting back to 5 ½ furlongs
  2. #1 – What the Beep (5-2): Has improved BRIS speed figure-wise in each start; has finished closely behind a pair of next out winners but will need pace help to prevail in final strides
  3. #5 – Three Hawk (8-1): MD-bred daughter of Violence out of a Good and Tough mare makes debut for trainer J. Lawrence has an evenly spaced, extensive work tab and could be ready at first asking   

Race 8

  1. #8 – Kaitain (5-2): Sixth when sent off 2-1 choice in $25kN4L for this 7-year-old earning whose earned over $186k in just 22 starts; willing to blame very wide trip but does race for career low tag ($16k) 
  2. #3 – Painted Patchen (6-1): Third start after 10-month layoff and being gelded should mean a top effort in here; nice runs in first two at this level v. a handful of foes compromised his true, late running style having to be closer early, shouldn’t have to be that close in this one
  3. #1 – Rare Candy (6-1): Winner v. $16kN3L in latest when dropped to this level after a very productive campaign when 3 (2 years ago); was drubbed by top pick three back

Race 9

  1. #1 – Can He Shine (3-1): Best finish came at this level and first time at this distance three back when runner-up, nearly 10-lengths in front of SHOW finisher; should have no problem getting early lead and away from rail as journeyman R. Chiappe takes over for 10 lb. bug
  2. #6 – Malibu At Midnight (6-5): A classic Also-Ran regardless of what level he runs; claimed for $10k five races back at CD, trainer A. Farrior has put him in against $25k, $40k and MSW yet runs the same, getting up for the SHOW purse at best but today that all ends?!
  3. #3 – Zeke the Streak (8-1): Vet scratch out of $10kMCL last week doesn’t give one a warm and fuzzy feeling about chances today but has been unlucky v. better since return to races from a 6-month layoff


  • On Sunday March 4th at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.20 (2nd race), $6.00 (5th), $2.80 (6th) and $5.60 (8th). Top Selections are 80 for 238 (33.61%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (26:9-5-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Mythos (5th race: 3-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) lacked speed, advanced four deep around the far turn, bid for the lead in upper stretch, dueled outside two rivals coming up a head short of victory and returned $3.60 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (25:4-5-3; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Dad’s City Girl (7th race: 6-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) circled on the turn chasing the pace, angled inside the leader in mid-stretch then flattened out to finish a clear third and returned $4.20 to SHOW.