The GQ Approach – Laurel March 3

by | Mar 3, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $20,931.91
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 8 / #2 – Frisky Whiskey (3-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 7 / #7 – Classic Wildcat (5-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 2, 7  w/ 3, 4  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  4, 8, 10  w/ 1, 2, 5  w/ 2, 4, 9   ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  2, 9  w/ 2, 4, 6  w/ 3, 7  w/ 1, 2  w/ 3, 5, 9  ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 2  w/ 3, 5, 9 ($12)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Silent Prayer (9-2): Foes lack early speed which C. Carrasco got out of her two back going this distance; yes she’s just 1 for 24 and the one came in her career debut over a sloppy GP oval
  2. #1 – Durango Girl (6-1): Tough assignment from the rail but will allow others to clear for an outside run late as she gets favorite distance (3:1-2-0) in this N2L contest
  3. #2 – Saturday’s Rein (5-1): Got going too late in first outing on a sloppy track, settling for SHOW purse; gets E. Trujillo back in irons who guided this mare to a pair of bridesmaid finishes prior to latest, all at this level

Race 2

  1. #4 – Banner Bill (4-1): Comes off victory, his 14th in 70th career start albeit at the bottom but so are the others in here except #1 and #3; this 9-year-old outlasted a big-time hanger (#2) on that ones preferred surface; should get early lead and make this contest a carbon copy of latest
  2. #3 – Noble Kent (2-1): Part of the Exacta in last four efforts but was the bottom half in last two as PT favorite for same condition; seeks to break Lrl maiden (8:0-2-1)
  3. #1 – Rare Eagle (3-1): Likes Lrl (9:1-2-4) but has yet to conquer this one mile distance (8:0-1-6); last win came when breaking from the rail when getting the best of #3 in here that day

Race 3

  1. #10 – Lucky Stiff (7-2): Appears to have been “stiffed” in last outing when sent off 6-5 choice after winning at same level and surface but this filly’s PPs show a pattern of running good, then bad; cycles back to good
  2. #4 – Local Thriller (10-1): Taking a WAG that this Pomeroy filly hates an off track as her two worst outings came on such a surface; if she runs back to her recent fast track efforts, she figures
  3. #8 – Analyzeurspending (3-1): Lone win came 11 races back, going gate-to-wire when blinkers were added; they come off today in hopes of change bringing the same result even though BRIS#s been ascending of late, earning career (74) best in latest
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Race 4

  1. #5 – I Just Wanna Win (5-2): … and she has in 11 of 31 starts! Back to the class level where she won and was runner-up alternating between tough foes in Starter Alw events 
  2. #2 – Porte Cochere (5-2): Didn’t so well when asked to go against open $15k Claimers in first start after K. Magee claim out of an open $5k claimer; drops back to a more manageable level
  3. #1 – Blue Hen Madness (9-5): Steps up another level for third straight outing; game effort in spite of horrible start in latest; both of the top two after gotten the better of her in the past but today she appears to be lone speed 

Race 5

  1. #9 – Homer Haps (3-1): A huge disappointment as 4-5 PT favorite v. similar as jock took him at least 7-wide entire trip and gave no encouragement through the lane; different jock and a more ground saving trip could make a world of difference in the final result 
  2. #2 – Whynotwyatt (12-1): Why not?! Makes first start since late Sept. on turf; only dirt start was forgettable; sent out by third conditioner in 5th career race but this one (O. Figgins) wins at 23% clip with his runners first time under his care
  3. #4 – Salty Slew (5-2): Trainer C. Englehart has won over 4,000 races but has first starter at Lrl… in the past few years if ever; this NY-bred couldn’t hit the board in state-bred MCLs at Sar, Bel or Aqu but earned SHOW purse at FL in open maiden events; was forwardly placed then weakened in latest when trying to stretch out to one mile; trainer wins at 36% clip when dropping multiple class levels 

Race 6

  1. #6 – Nico Bree N Teej (6-5): Ran a huge 99 BRIS# in first try stretching out when dueled with eventual winner the entire trip on a muddy Lrl oval; wheels right back, shouldn’t have to duel in here and only a bounce will deny him this time
  2. #4 – Magician’scalendar (2-1): Was entered on Friday card which was pushed back to Monday, so thinking he’ll go here based on being second best on paper; third start after layoff 
  3. #2 – Tattooed (6-1): This Triple Crown series nominated gelding finished half dozen behind the top pick in latest; pedigree indicates not a fan of an off track so with it fast this time around, he could find himself in contention

Race 7

  1. #7 – Classic Wildcat (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ It’s been a little more than 8 years since this 12-year-old, who is just 7 years younger than his rider, has won an allowance level race; making his 97th start, this Closer should get an honest the pace to soft up the front runners for his late charge with a chance to give HOF trainer King T. Leatherbury his first win of ‘18
  2. #3 – No More Talk (4-1): Among the classiest of runners in here but hasn’t shown it in last two over an off track which he despises; still eligible for N2L might be a good one on the bottom of exotics
  3. #6 – Minor Legend (9-2): Loses services of S. Russell who is loyal to the connections of #4 but replacement has won on 2 of 3 for trainer H. McMahon who just nabbed this one for $7,500 two back; third in first start for trainer in restricted Alwn1x and could move forward as outfit wins at 26% clip second time out

Race 8

  1. #2 – Frisky Whiskey (3-1): *** BEST BET *** In way over her head a few weeks back in G2 Fritchie yet just 8+ behind winner at going 7 furlongs; gets back to two turns where she’s won and been runner-up in two starts while getting E. Trujillo back in the irons
  2. #1 – Keep Your Distance (8-5): Versatile at all distances and surfaces but middle distance seems to be her best, which is not the case here but trainer K. Magee is a gaudy 30% with runners going sprint-sprint then route
  3. #6 – Follow the Petals (6-1): Highly unusual to see a first off C. Gonzalez claim run so bad though in a sprint when one mile or further is what she wants; dangerous coming back at a price; best efforts have come on an off track

Race 9

  1. #9 – Tequila Hero (3-1): No match in latest as winner ran his eyeballs out; was best finisher among a few others in that one who show up in this one; won at Lrl two years back to steal a bottom level N4L going 7 furlongs
  2. #3 – Battle Tap (7-2): Only runner to be dropping a level and it’s been a steep fall from competing in OC$50n2x at Ind last Summer; royally bred by Winchell, hits the bottom in 26th career start
  3. #5 – Rumblin Kyle (6-1): Dull effort in first outing of the year could have been due to hatred for an off track (8:0-3-0); only multiple winner at this distance in here should be more forwardly placed


  • On Sunday February 25th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $8.60 (1st race), $7.00 (2nd), $3.20 (3rd), $11.80 (4th), $5.00 (5th), $4.00 (6th), $8.00 (7th), $8.80 (8th) and $2.80 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R8-R9 $2 Double paid $18.60 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 76 for 220 (34.55%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (24:9-3-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Fly and Flutter (3rd race: 3-1 M/L; 3-5 PT) bumped on both sides leaving the starting gate, saved ground on the turn, angled to the three-path approaching the stretch, secured command in upper stretch, was under brisk urging, drew off to win by four-and-one-quarter-lengths and returned $3.20 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (23:4-5-2; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Debs the Boss (6th race: 9-2 M/L; 7-2 PT) lacked early speed, chased between rivals, steadied nearing the five sixteenths, weakened and finished tenth.