The GQ Approach – Laurel January 26

by | Jan 26, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6None
  • Super High 5None
  • Late Pick 5: None[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 1 /#4 – Cent Comm (5-2)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 8 / #4 – She Rolls (6-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  4  w/ 1, 3, 5, 6  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 2, 5  w/ 1, 8  w/ 2, 4, 6 ($9)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  2, 4, 6  w/ 1, 2, 4  w/ 3, 9  w/ 4, 10  w/ 2, 7 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  4, 6, 10  w/ 2, 7 ($12)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny with highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #4 – Cent Comm (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Vet Scratch last weekend when entered for $16kN2L doesn’t scare off this capper; beaten favorite in last 3 outings has never been OTB in 5 dirt tries and lone win was here at the distance
  2. #6 – Earned It (4-1): Just 1 for 16 lifetime but that one came at this distance; has been knocking at the door in last 3 very similar foes
  3. #1 – Chocomount (7-2): First start after “Beth” Worton claim (30%) might be prominent early from the rail coming off 7 panel runner-up finish ahead of top two; has led at first call in past one mile dirt races 

Race 2

  1. #5 – Sam Sparkle (3-1): This group of 7 seniors’ averages 60 career starts; this 10 y.o. ridgling is the eldest yet was claimed by P. Schoenthal in latest, a 5 length score for $5k; has best last race BRIS# of the bunch
  2. #1 – Cooking Up a Storm (8-1): Will need an honest pace as it takes this 8 y.o. gelding three-quarters of the race to get out of first gear; exits victory against $5k claimers 
  3. #6 – To the Stars (15-1): Longest shot per ML but only runner who exits open claiming (actually last two) while others been in conditional events; could surprise at a price

Race 3

  1. #2 – Swinging Bridge (2-1): KY-bred daughter of Archarcharch out of a Buddha mare not owned by Sagamore Farm but conditioned by their (thought to be) private trainer H. DePaz (13 of 40 w/ FTS); not thrilled about last published work being Dec. 30 though
  2. #5 – Parched Ghost (9-2): No Lasix (again) for second start which comes nearly 7 months after debut at Del when 4th of 6 after tough start as 2-1 second choice; gets 7 lb. bug W. Hamilton
  3. #1/1A – Soft Landing/Somethingwithlilly (6-1): Prefer #1 climbing back up to this level after awkward start in latest; #1A has yet to hit the board in 3 starts at one class level lower      
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Race 4

  1. #1/1A – All Spun Up/Balkan (4-1): #1 should be heard from late has there’s plenty of early speed to generate a pace meltdown which entrymate will be a part of on the class drop coming off 9-month layoff
  2. #8 – Tam Tam Attack (5-2): This one seems very vulnerable on the steep drop and how he’s abruptly stopped in last two, front wraps added in latest but need to use just as a “saver” in horizontals
  3. #6 – Caonavo (15-1): Adds blinkers after roughed up at the start in comeback race, first one in 10-months on huge but warranted drop; takes another drop today in hopes of getting some bran bill cash

Race 5

  1. #2 – Baltimore Street (9-2): You won’t find Blaze Starr on this “Block” rather the hot riding J. Vargas, Jr. (32% w/ trainer) looking to improve on the SHOW effort v. similar on a big drop in latest as connections try one last time to take advantage of age v. N3L condition (good thru January)
  2. #4 – Gimme Kimmy (8-1): Drops back to level where trainer J. Robb claimed her when defeated by a nose; Robb does well in second after claim (22%) and multi-level drop (24%); second start w/ blinkers
  3. #6 – Hashtag Selfie (4-1): Better half of the uncoupled C. Gonzalez entry (#1 is the other) didn’t handle two-turn test in first try v. N3L when moved up a couple classes; drop and cut back should yield a better result

Race 6

  1. #2 – Taco Supream (3-1): Yet another El Padrino (may he R.I.P.) youngster who only fetched $1,600 as a yearling purchase but doing well early in career for trainer “Snake” Frock; a more patient ride by S. Russell can get it done 
  2. #1 – Riteamontofmschief (10-1): Finally took a short break after 8 starts in 5 months; toss the MD Juv. stakes try, his first against winners and he could rebound against this crew
  3. #4 – Jovis (4-1): Fresh off maiden score after being runner-up to top pick in here; these youngsters can grow leaps and bounds from start to start and this one seems to be doing just that

Race 7

  1. #3 – Big Slick (6-1): 4-time winner, all at this distance from 6 such starts makes third start after 7-month layoff; fits at this level
  2. #9 – The Great Ronaldo (6-1): Flashes of greatest early in career when 2 but form went quickly; seems last three after a brief layoff are more reflective of previous form
  3. #1 – Far From Awesome (15-1): Soundly beaten by a trio two races back who he’ll face again today; improved when equipped with blinkers in latest and could take another step up here

Race 8

  1. #4 – She Rolls (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Always leads at the first call but gets leg-weary late; she’s better than that 7th-place finish in the Politely because of going toe-to-toe early with a buzzsaw; none are in here
  2. #10 – Conquest Vivi (7-2): House horse makes local bow after competing north of the border on synthetic in minor stakes events until mid-July; been training at Bel then shipped to Lrl for comeback
  3. #7 – Anna’s Bandit (12-1): Fourth behind top pick in here two back at a similar price; came back to pass N1x condition and could get a minor share with a nice stalking trip

Race 9

  1. #7 – Ladyofthehierarchy (3-1): Couldn’t keep pace with eventual 12-length winner in latest when bridesmaid in her natural dirt debut for $25kMCL one race after claimed for $16kMCL; likely early pacesetter who if not challenged early from an unlikely source, could wire this field
  2. #2 – Nancy R (2-1): She’s overdue to get her picture taken but lacks speed from the rail as does most of her rivals which puts her at a disadvantage in trying to catch top pick on cut back to 7f
  3. #6 – Love in Excess (6-1): Only other class dropper from $25k in here but proceed with caution as she’s being offered for $8k v. $10k for new trainer (R. Bailes) and hasn’t raced since Thanksgiving 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday January 21st at Laurel had 8 winners from the 9-race card (6 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.80 (1st race), $22.20 (2nd), $4.40 (4th), $6.40 (5th), $10.40 (6th), $8.80 (7th), $6.00 (8th) and $30.60 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $55.40 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 27 for 79 (34.18%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (9:3-0-2; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Wildly Clever (9th race: 7-2 M/L; 2-1 PT) saved ground, disputed pace to upper stretch then weakened to finish a well-beaten eighth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (8:3-1-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Tower of Truth (6th race: 8-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) broke slowly, regrouped and settled inside, angled out leaving the far turn and was put to a strong hand ride, circled four-wide advancing into the lane, surged to engage the leader in mid-stretch and eagerly kicked clear under a drive to win by two-lengths to return $10.40 to WIN $5.40 to PLACE and $4.00 to SHOW.