The GQ Approach – Laurel January 14

by | Jan 14, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,668.83
  • Super High 5: $3,804.75
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 5 /#3 – Ballivor (4-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 6 / #2 – Degrom (6-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  5, 7  w/ 2, 4, 5  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 3, 4, 7  w/ 5, 8  w/ 3, 5, 7 ($12)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  3, 5, 7  w/ 4, 5, 6  w/ 3, 6 w/ 1, 3  w/ 5, 7, 9 ($54)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 3  w/ 5, 7, 9 ($12)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny with highs in the mid-20s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #5 – Bilko (2-1): Missed by a neck in latest when dropped to this level and stretched out to two turns but it’s been a few years since trainer G. Capuano won with a 2nd time router (0 for 16)
  2. #7 – Koopa Troopa (5-1): Not a bad debut showing late interest sprinting in $25MCL but took ill-advised step up v. MSW and got buried; H. Smith/A. Cruz combo are 4 for 10 at the meet
  3. #1 – Vow’s Son (9-5): Could maiden breaker come in lucky #13 career start, 1st on east coast? Claim to fame is that he lost by 14-lengths to West Coast

Race 2

  1. #5 – Greasedlightning (5-2): Could complete a chalky Capuano brothers Double; cuts back to one turn mile following a 5-length, two turn victory that could have been timed with a sun dial
  2. #2 – Take Charge Sue (3-1): No match against a salty group of 2-year-old 3 days before birthday but has the early speed to clear these six gals the way she did in maiden win at Prx two back
  3. #4 – Drops and Buckets (8-5): Disappointed this capper in latest when 10-1 as she did not rebound from poor showing in MD Fillies Juv. Championship; drops back to $25k tag which she was claimed for when winning here by 9+ lengths

Race 3

  1. #7 – Barncato (7-5): Catches a weak $5kN2L group… then again are there strong ones? Exits an easy (81 BRIS#) bottom level maiden win in second dirt try but runner-up came back to be 4th at 6-5
  2. #4 – Brute Force (3-1): Knows just one way of racing and that’s going to the lead; should make for an interesting Match Race with top pick which could result in a pace meltdown even on the frozen tundra at Lrl
  3. #2 – A True Gentleman (5-1): Likely candidate who would benefit from a possible pace meltdown; lone win came on the turf but speed figures have been ascending since layoff three back
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Race 4

  1. #5 – Island Queen (8-5): Lukewarm backing of this ML favorite who was a $165k yearling purchase; takes hasty, steep drop after rough debut v. $40kMCL when 16-1; adds blinkers
  2. #8 – Firey Child (9-2): Was scratched last weekend when supposedly stronger POE that saw stablemate win that contest; that was for $10kMCL; tries to break string of two consecutive runner-up finishes at this level
  3. #2 – Sharon’s Thunder (6-1): Small barn seeks first win in over a year (0 for last 21) but has had Winners’ Circle in their sights; this gals stumble at the start in latest, rushed into contention and missed SHOW by a neck to #6; suffered another neck lose for runner-up spot to #8 

Race 5

  1. #3 – Ballivor (4-1): *** BEST BET *** In latest bobbled at the break and was widest of all rallying in the stretch; overcame all these problems to be up late while covering 7 furlongs in 1:22 and change; this was a bigger effort v. restricted AlwN1x; runner-up came back to win yesterday against non-restricted AlwN1x
  2. #7 – Correjon (4-1): Game late run against similar when unprepared at the start going 5½f; stretches back out to 7 panels, where he was runner-up two back
  3. #5 – Bestkindoftrouble (7-2): Speedy gelded son of Shackleford could take advantage of a speed favoring frozen surface coming off two-month layoff as catches a break other speed (#1) ran yesterday; could steal it from Best Bet… Doooooohl!!!!

Race 6

  1. #6 – Degrom (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Trainer J. Servis as a better win pct. shipping into MD than overall (22% v. 19%); this geldings’ lone previous trip to Lrl resulted in a gate-to-wire score at same level; has since failed as PT favorite in 2 of 3 starts but was still part of Trifecta
  2. #5 – Worth His Salt (9-2): Not lone speed but should be the one leading this pack into the first turn; runner-up at this level in last two; SHOW runner from latest came back to win
  3. #4 – Ice Tea (7-2): Claimed out of his last three starts takes another step up seeking fifth straight victory; hasn’t been off the board since arriving in MD (7:4-1-2) but faces toughest task to date 

Race 7

  1. #3 – Maynooth (2-1): Promising colt may have a case of Seconditis (runner-up in 3 of 4 starts) but if he repeats that 83 BRIS# from last effort, he’ll be cured and get to the Winners’ Circle
  2. #6 – Global Citizen (7-2): Sagamore Farm MD-bred FTS by To Honor and Serve out of a Tiznow mare may need more distance but outfit wins 31% with firsters and has a bullet from the gate
  3. #4 – Treetop Flyer (12-1): 7 furlongs was a too far especially after being rushed up to pressure eventual winner; if he can clear the field more easily a gate-to-wire win going 6f could be in the cards

Race 8

  1. #3 – Sazerac Girl (7-2): The definition of “insanity” comes to mind putting this gal on top (33:2-11-7) but today is the day that changes… yeah right; runner-up in last two in an unorthodox change (without Lasix in those) could the third time be the charm?
  2. #1/1A – She’s Achance Too/No Love Lost (7-2): #1 carries the co-third-choice load here with third start after layoff, running behind top pick in last two; #1A showed some life when dropped to $16kN2L so she’s in tough here
  3. #5 – Fergie’s Lady (3-1): A name that makes you go, “Hmmm… not that there’s anything wrong with that”; BRIS#s have been climbing along with placings but has yet to hit the board in three starts going 6 furlongs

Race 9

  1. #9 – Off Road (2-1): Has more Frequent Flyer miles than T. Pletcher as this 4-year-old gelding has raced at FG, OP, CD, CT, Ind, WO and Pen; makes Lrl debut in 12th career start at the bottom after failing as 7-5 favorite at Pen for $10k; jock I. Beato makes the trip down I-83 to ride
  2. #5 – Gotham Boy (6-1): Showed late interest going 5½f in first dirt start since last Jan. getting trounced twice v. $40kMCL but while racing without Lasix or blinkers, which he’ll have today
  3. #7 – Totally Unexpected (7-2): Not a bad natural dirt debut (4th) v. $10kN2L after first 16 career starts came over the WO synthetic and turf; trainer C. Lynch rarely has multi-class level droppers but wins with 31% of them

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday January 13th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $12.20 (1st race), $3.40 (3rd), $22.00 (4th), $5.80 (5th) and $5.00 (6th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 paid $38.65 (cost: $13.50). Top Selections are 8 for 36 (22.22%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (4:1-0-1; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Shoe Loves Shoes (8th race: 5-2 M/L; 9-5 PT) set a pressured pace along the inner rail and gave way approaching the eighth pole to finish 4th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (3:1-0-0; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Jarvis Steel (5th race: 10-1 M/L; 11-1 PT) the pace outside a rvial, gave way in upper stretch and was eased the final three sixteenths of a mile.