The GQ Approach – Laurel October 21

by | Oct 21, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,410.89
  • Super High 5: $772.57
  • Late Pick 5: $2,005.79[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 9 /#2 – Barrel of Dreams (7-2)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 10 / #11 – Ghost Bay (8-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1: $2 Double  4, 6, 9  w/ 5, 8  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  2, 3, 9  w/ 1, 8  w/ 3,  8, 10, 12 ($12)
  • Race 7: 50 cent Pick-5  9 w/ 4, 5, 6  w/ 2, 7, 8  w/ 2, 5, 11  w/ 1, 4, 7 ($40.50)
  • Race 10: $2 Double  5, 11  w/ 1, 4, 7 ($12)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

SPECIAL 1st Race Post is 12:15pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Shifra Magician (7-5): Closest thing to a Free Space to start this MD Million Day card her BRIS Prime Power# towers over this field but she’s just 3 for 33 which reminds us “There is no sure thing”
  2.  #9 – Moral High Ground (8-1): Four-time participant in the MD Million Ladies with best finish fifth twice; 71 career starts but can still compete especially at this level; seeks first win of ‘17
  3. #4 – Eyerish Inspired (4-1): Gray filly makes third start after brief layoff; returns to Lrl and reunited with A. Cintron; will need to get an honest pace to have a chance to rally late

Race 2

  1. #5 – Helloitsme (3-1): Been competing against Starter Alw $25k foes at Prx since being claimed out of a $7,500 Claimer which qualified him for this event; past performances show a win-lose pattern that has repeated three times; if pattern holds he should win today; 1 for 1 at distance
  2. #8 – Broad Lover (6-1): Popular gelding in the Prx racing office as he’s been claimed in four of his last five races; makes Lrl debut for latest owner Tim Hopkins, longtime supporter of MD racing who is very familiar with Winners Circle at Lrl
  3. #12 – I Stand Alone (6-1): Returns to dirt after two turf outings; been racing in open claimers with mixed results… good races at Lrl then shipped to Sar to get buried twice at today’s distance

Race 3 is the MD Million Nursery

  1.  #9 – Onemoregreattime (7-2): Runner-up in first outing against winners which saw the SHOW runner come back to win in next outing; this colt is versatile and jock should be able to take back off a potential suicidal pace and make a late run as he did in debut
  2. #2 – Jamaican Don (8-5): Very impressive debut win and speed figure at Tdn and improved on that in minor stakes at Del but was denied another gate-to-wire win by #10 Whereshetoldmetogo who is on AE list; second start with blinkers and fired a bullet last weekend as a tightener
  3. #3 – Cinaquapin (12-1): After earning diploma sprinting on the grass tried dirt and stretching out to one mile but couldn’t keep pace entire way; cut back to sprint might see him more relaxed early and be heard from late
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Race 4 is the MD Million Sprint

  1.  #1 – Pete’s Play Call (5-1): Bel-based runner ships down for owner/trainer Gary Gullo who claimed this Munning gelding out of winning effort at Sar for $50k from trainer R. Diodoro, yet Diodoro is the listed trainer… confused? Regardless, this gelding earned a lofty 104 BRIS# in that last race
  2.  #8 – Blu Moon Ace (9-5): Possibly the claim of the century… well maybe of the year as local longtime owner Robert Cole stole this guy for $30k in July; has since won a minor stakes and lost a G3 by a neck, earning $110k in two races with another $60k to the winner here but it won’t be easy with others vying for the early lead as well
  3. #2 – Rockinn On Bye (10-1): Should be the beneficiary of a blazing quick early pace as he always seems to be the one after the race making you think, “Another 20 yards and he wins” but whether 6 or 7 furlongs, he never does as his winless streak has reached 21; use in exotics underneath

Race 5 is the MD Million Lassie

  1. #8 – Pikachu Princess (9-2): Winner at first asking and that race turned out to be a “key” one as multiple fillies came out of that contest to win in their next outing or show vast improvement; adds blinkers not for more speed but as a shot in the dark to help her break from the gate a bit quicker 
  2. #3 – Pearl Gem (6-1): With the plethora of early speed in this contest, this M. Eppler trainee showed willingness to pass rivals on her win to a winning debut; her final eighth time was the fastest of any in this field 
  3. #10 – Margie’s Money (5-2): A perfect 2 for 2 and based on 4 furlongs times she’ll likely be the one the rest of the early speed will be chasing for a piece of the lead; if note: #12 – Enchanted Star draws in from Also-Eligible List, she’s a must use if not one to beat

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #14 – Slip and Drive (9-2): 9-year-old ships in from Chi-town via MN for trainer H. Robertson looking to push earnings over the $400k mark; no stranger to the Lrl lawn, he won the Japan Racing Assn. Stakes in ‘13
  2. #11 – Grecian Prince (5-1): Stretches out to 9 furlongs for the first time in 30-race career; as become versatile as he transitions from sprinting on turf to routing on dirt w/o issue; look for him to lead the way into the first turn and play catch me if you can
  3. #12 – Zen’s Land (6-1): Another find (aka claim; see race 2) at Prx for owner Tim Hopkins as this runner with back class dropped down to the $11k level for one race, a winning effort which qualified him for this contest; shocked that the duo of J. Ness & D. Centeno are 0 for 16 over the past year

Race 7 is the MD Million Distaff

  1. #9 – Crabcakes (3-5): The class of this field who loves the Lrl main oval (6:4-2-0); third race after layoff while the last two were the best, speed figure-wise of her young career; 7 furlongs not her favorite but no shame in being runner-up to Shimmering Aspen, arguably the best local 3-year-old filly
  2. #2 – Hell of Afire (12-1): In best form of her career which could be attributed to giving this mid-distance a shot (3:1-2-0) and/or addition of blinkers (4:2-2-0); will need to take another step forward to compete against these gals
  3. #6 – She Rolls (20-1): Suddenly has embraced being on the lead from the get go since ’17 debut four races back following a 6+ month layoff; could find herself lone on the lead being able to get a breather in mid-race to have enough left in the tank to shock or be part of the exotics

Race 8 is the MD Million Turf

  1. #4 – Spartianos (5-1): Turf sprinter with need the lead speed is a threat to steal it on the front end for trainer Michael Pino w/ R. Silvera aboard, this duos sol reason for shipping in from Prx; only previous one mile turf race came in this event last year when runner-up at 12-1 to local turf monster Phlash Phelps
  2. #5 – Talk Show Man (2-1): Veteran of three (3) MD Million races, won this event in ’14; loves the distance (6:4-0-1) but has had a bumpy road in ’17 coming back from a 17-month layoff; not concerned about latest dud as he just needed a race and trainer “Ham” Smith seems confident
  3. #6 – Somekindofmagician (5-2): Whatever the issue was this past winter, trainer M. Trombetta resolved it as this 3-year-old Street Magician gelding graduated in first race after a 6-month layoff, then in two eventful turf trips was runner-up at Sar and won over the Bel turf and now stretches out from those sprints which should be more to his liking 

Race 9 is the MD Million Ladies on turf

  1. #2 – Barrel of Dreams (7-2): *** BEST BET *** Exits best two races of career based on BRIS#s, a gate-to-wire win going 1 3/16 at Sar then fourth in a 1 1/8 state-bred stakes at Bel; duplication of either race will be good enough to win here; not many candidates in here to put pressure on her early
  2. #7 – Rocky Policy (9-2): Cross-entered in Distaff (R7); ran fifth in this event last year and vanned off afterwards, her only race at this distance on turf; it’s hard to figure which one trainer Dale Capuano (leads MM in wins) will run her; best chance for a win might be here but if she scratches, consider using #7 – My Sistersledge (10-1) who still eligible for non-winners of 2 races but has held her own against this level of competition; need to view sprint last month as a paid workout
  3. #8 – Great Soul (3-1): Has changed running style to early speed since being transferred to trainer Tom Proctor’s barn; might bode well in here with just one other (#2) wanting early lead; need to draw a line through latest, only OTB finish when stopped on the dirt; 1 for 1 on turf recording BRIS# worth of winning this event 

Race 10 is the MD Million Classic

  1.  #11 – Ghost Bay (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ L-O-V-E this gelding! Never gets the respect (nor gets bet) because he’s taken his time getting through each condition; recently took to turf racing like a duck to water when rally came up a neck short to next out G3 winner; as the race shapes up, he’ll get a perfect setup providing there are no defections which could gift wrap this event for one of the early speed types, otherwise look for his patented late rally to catch the leg weary ones in deep stretch
  2. #5 – Bonus Points (3-1): The better of the two Todd Pletcher uncoupled entries (#3 is the other) assuming both run because both are cross-entered in the Turf (R8); only runner entered who has raced and placed in grade stakes; one look at his past performance lines show that when properly place in minor stakes he can succeed; last victory was in the Parx Derby in May
  3. #2 – John Jones (2-1): Local star who blossomed last Summer, reeling off four straight wins, all on the lead immediately after trainer L. Gaudet claimed him for $25k; made ’17 debut just 16 days ago… in a turf sprint; shockingly was tardy away from the gate but showed late interest; is that enough to prep him for a top effort?

Race 11

  1.  #4 – Chapel of Chimes (5-2): All-time leading MD Million trainer D. Capuano claimed this one at Pid out of an open $7,500 event on a steep class drop in July; been on a steady workout regimen since with this race in mind because she won this one last year by 12-lengths
  2.  #1 – Proud Maid Marian (10-1): Been part of Exacta in all three efforts at this distance (3:2-1-0) while she’s loved racing at Lrl (6:3-2-0) but that one off-the-board finish came in latest against much better than the assembled nine gals she’ll face here
  3. #7 – Missy Nosy (2-1): Claimed for $5k out of a winning effort in August then three weeks later won even more impressively against first-level allowance runners at The Big T; she’ll be on the early lead but will have some company

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday October 20th at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.60 (2nd race), $22.80 (5th), $17.00 (6th) and $4.40 (7th), $x.x0 (8th) and $x.x0 (9th). Top Selections in 2017 are 336 for 1,186 (28.33%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (119: 39-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Sassy Little Cat (6th race: 9-2 M/L; 4-1 PT) saved ground, awaited room from the far turn to the quarter pole, angled out but came up empty once clear and finished 9th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (106: 18-13-14; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Markakis (3rd race: 30-1 M/L; 28-1 PT) three wide the first turn, chased the pace, floated to the four-path entering the stretch and gave way to finish 8th.