The GQ Approach – Laurel October 16

by | Oct 16, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,719.10
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 8 /#11 – Risky Guy (3-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 10 / #10 – Wedgewood Blue (6-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1: $2 Double  2, 10, 11  w/ 3, 5  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  5, 7, 10  w/ 1, 3, 8  w/ 4, 6, 7  ($13.50)
  • Race 6: 50 cent Pick-5  2, 5, 12  w/ 4, 5  w/ 11  w/ 1, 2, 10  w/ 4, 10 ($18)
  • Race 9: $2 Double  1, 2, 10  w/ 4, 10  ($12)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: YIELDING BUT 1st and 8th are OFF

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #10 – Southern Peach (7-2): Didn’t fire the way she usually does on the turf but the course was favoring the early speed v. closers like herself during that timeframe; regardless she’ll be closer to the pace today on dirt
  2. #11 – Mineralistic (3-1): Gets in off Also-Eligible; though recent fast track form doesn’t show it, her record on the main oval is very good (11:2-3-3)
  3. #2 – Blavastki (20-1): Though winless on dirt (8:0-2-2) might be able to get an easy lead and hold off the late runners to score the upset    

Race 2

  1. #3 – Not Above Love (7-2): Much the second best when dropped to this level, stretched out to one mile and equipped with blinkers in last outing; a duplicate effort earns her a diploma
  2. #5 – Do You Like That (3-1): Pedigree screams of two turns and finally gets it in eighth career outing; drops to bottom of maiden claiming barrel; sheds blinkers which is a popular angle
  3. #1 – Proudly (10-1): Shipped to Suf to make debut on grass in MSW and was outrun; connections make hasty drop all the way to the bottom but that’s how trainer T. Woolley rolls as he’s 36% with this move

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Just the Facts (5-1): Draw a line through last off the turf outing; if races are truly on the turf, look for A. Cintron to get his gal to the lead and make every pole a winning one
  2. #7 – Papa Pablo (6-1): A trio of SHOW finishes since breaking maiden here in early Spring going one mile; runner-up in latest came back to win impressively; blinkers go back on
  3. #5 – King of the Jungle (15-1): Showed slight improvement in latest with blinkers added but still couldn’t carry speed the necessary distance; might be a different story if he gets early lead
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Race 4

  1. #3 – Star Too (5-2): Contracted a case of “Second-itis” since arriving in the Free State three starts ago; all at this bottom level but BRIS#s have improved in each effort  
  2. #1/1A – Little Miss Jojo/Sweet Sheba (10-1): “Jojo” gets back to preferred distance but needs pace help as entrymate by Congaree out of a Phone Trick mare makes career start #1; one maybe be scratched as the X-Man is listed as jock on both
  3. #8 – Majestic Pic (7-2): Best races have come at Pen in restricted MSW; wasn’t close in any of the three run at Lrl but all were in against much better

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Andrasta (2-1): Two career wins and her came most recent one came over 14 months ago… yeah, that warrants being the Morning Line favorite in here simply due to the level of competition she has been facing since her last trip to the Winners’ Circle 
  2. #6 – Street Miz (5-2): Best efforts have come in $16k claimers; her three career wins are tops among these gals
  3. #7 – Aine (15-1): Stretch out from turf sprints should be to this daughter of Artie Shiller’s liking as long as she doesn’t meltdown in pre-race as she did in latest

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Riley’s Choice (4-1): A trouble trip sprinting over the Bel grass in minor stakes event yet still finished less than three-lengths behind winner; stretch back out to two turns and home cookin’ will help
  2. #12 – Nawlins Kitty (12-1): Third behind two next out winners two races back then was game to hit the board in minor stakes, both coming on the Del turf; moving in the right direction under conditioner K. Rubley
  3. #2 – Raining Lemons (12-1): In spite of recently earning first victory in sixth career start, she’s been running behind next out winners in 4 for the 5 leading up to maiden score

Race 7

  1. #4 – Wrightwood (7-2): Back class came through as he romped home by 8+ lengths to notch first fast track win of career in 21 such starts; no surprise that trainer C. Gonzalez brings him right back for same tag, thus dangling the claiming slip carrot
  2. #5 – Stonescape (9-2): Been enjoying the friendly $4k claiming confines at Pen being part of Exacta in last three with two wins; will need to put his big boy pants on to compete against the MD bottom level claimers but speed figures indicate he can; 5 wins at distance from 9 such starts
  3. #1 – Papa Portmore (3-1): Been on the bench since late June and shows just one token work while dropping to lowest claiming level offered locally; vulnerable ML favorite though he’s won 3 of 4 at this one mile distance

Race 8 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – Risky Guy (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Entered for MTO so he catches a break as MJC decided to race on the turf except for the race 1 and this one; away since mid-June to get re-energized after running 10 times in 5+ months; shows a half dozen well-spaced works which puts him on target to run today
  2. #6 – Lawyer Dave (8-1): 8-year-old gelding doesn’t have enough pep-in-his-step to get the job done on dirt at this short distance but can find his way into the exotics
  3. #4 – Billy the Bull (3-1): Has been stopping on a dime after 5 furlongs on his preferred grass surface but has a win in 9 career starts on a fast track; this field lacks his type of speed so he may still pull over a gate-to-wire win

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – My Enigma (4-1): Was up against it in latest as there was no one pressuring “Jarvis” (#5) that day so it hampered his late kick; pace scenario should be different today so look for Pimentel to arrive on the scene just in the nick of time
  2. #2 – Call Wil (7-2): Never OTB in four starts at this distance; lost head-bob at Prx going 5 furlongs and should relish the added 1/16th with a ground-saving, stalking trip can put him in the mix late
  3. #1 – Johnny U (30-1): Nearly pulled off 36-1 shocker on Prx turf versus similar but ran out of real estate; gets the added distance today and breaks from rail as he did in latest 

Race 10

  1. #10– Wedgewood Blue (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Graduated in latest, her ninth start which came v. the lowest level in MD ($10kMCL) but the lightbulb may have come on in addition to this gray gals maturation as a racehorse; versatile running style gives her an edge to stalk a plethora of early speed
  2. #4 – Montrico (9-2): Best two career races have come on this main oval, both at this distance; closed ground on a speed favoring bull ring (Tim) on a steep drop; should get pace help from uncoupled stablemate (#1) and others
  3. #1 – Airlie’s Diamond (7-2): First race after trainer H. McMahon claim in a race where she faltered early on; if you want to trust the work outs, then she’s fine based on the two bullets this month; looks for K. Davis to take her to the lead then see what happens

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday October 15th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.60 (1st race), $4.40 (3rd), $5.60 (4th), $5.20 (5th), $5.20 (6th), $4.00 (7th) and $3.40 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R3-R5 $2 Pick-3 paid $15.25 (cost: $9). Top Selections in 2017 are 330 for 1,167 (28.28%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (117: 38-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Lipman (7th race: 9-2 M/L; 1-1 PT) was away alertly and set a reasonable early pace with a couple rivals to his outside, maintained a short lead on the turn and responded when roused entering the stretch, pulled away late and returned $4.00 to WIN, $3.00 to PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (104: 18-13-14; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Cordmaker (8th race: 4-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) unhurried early, pinched back between runners, angled to the rail and was keen to move forward under a snug hold when at the heels of the early leader, split rivals entering the stretch, was set down for the drive, could not shake the eventual winner coming up a half-length short and returned $4.60 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.