The GQ Approach – Laurel October 15

by | Oct 15, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,311
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 7 /#11 – Lipman (9-2)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 8 / #3 – Cordmaker (4-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1: $2 Double  8, 11  w/ 1, 2, 3  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  6, 9, 14  w/ 2, 5, 6  w/ 6, 13 ($9)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  3, 6  w/ 5, 7, 11  ($12)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th and 9th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: OFF

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11– Tapa Liath (5-1): Bel-based shipper for trainer C. Martin should still make the trip as this gray gal has been successful on dirt (4:1-0-1) as well as turf
  2. #8 – Seeing’n’believing (8-1): Dirt record is better than turf record and S. Russell has never been OTB in this filly; she should go to the early lead with the few gals left in this contest
  3. #1/1A – I Dream of Lois/Loya (8-1): “Lois” would have been considered the stronger of the two on turf, especially since “Loya” was entered for MTO; the latter has extended her speed to one mile in the past and should be able to do it on dirt 

Race 2

  1. #2 – Grecian Dancer (5-2): Has the look and pedigree to want more ground than the 5½ furlongs she got in debut, when professionally splitting rivals in the stretch to get the PLACE purse; gets 7f today and might be more forwardly placed today
  2. #3 – Menorah Lora (3-1): Fits this $25kMCL level as she’s SHOWed twice and was bridesmaid two back; toss both races when in versus better and she might earn diploma
  3. #1/1A – Lulu’s On the Move/Hard Rockin Blues (5-1): Stablemates take class drop as “Lulu” showed nothing on Del grass in debut nearly 2-months ago but recent works on dirt look promising as “Blues” adds blinkers for fourth career start, first on dirt and for a tag

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Mathildestrevenue (8-1): Interesting move in first race after claim for K. Magee waiting out the 30-day (give or take a few) period to enter at a lower level yet stepped up and didn’t care for distance; the fact J. Pimentel doesn’t bail indicates cut back to sprint will yield a better effort
  2. #14 – Socially Driven (8-1): Impressive looking score three back on this dirt oval but couldn’t handle the Tim bull ring thereafter; returns to scene of last victory versus similar
  3. #6 – Misschief Mass (3-1): Consistent runner on turf or dirt has hit the board in her last 8 starts while going off as the Post Time favorite and/or less than 2-1 in her last 6 efforts; trainer J. Navarro is 0 for 5 at Lrl since MJC racing office put the Welcome mat back out for him  
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Race 4

  1. #5 – Forever (7-2): Del-based trainer L. Jones does wonders with 2-year-olds (20%) especially fillies for Fox Hill Farms; love her work out routine leading up to debut and fact A. Cintron takes the mount
  2. #2 – Star Swept (3-1): KY-bred FTS by Astrology out of a Giant’s Causeway mare fetched $300k at the June OBS 2-year-olds in training sale; has had a more casual work tab for trainer L. Rice leading up to debut but must respect connections
  3. #6 – Caught Dream’n (9-2): Ignored at the windows (17-1) in debut here yet was likely best in the race after a near meltdown prior to start then blocked at the ¼ pole and proceeded to run an 11 2/5 final eighth; Dark Hollow Farm home/MD-bred daughter of Blame out of a graded-stakes placed Malibu Moon mare could be special

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #6 – Lemon Lover (9-2): MTO entry seems to fit the 5½ furlong distance quite well when facing this level of competition; jock A. Cintron could enjoy a multi-win day
  2. #13 – Burbank Road (9-2): After spending the summer at Pid racing six times, never worse than second (6:4-2-0) settles into trainer D. Capuano Lrl barn and should give a good account of herself by stalking early speed
  3. #10 – No More Excuses (8-1): Back on dirt and with J.D. Acosta in the irons will certainly be on or near the lead and could hold off the late running types to prevail                    

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – Mr. Benz (4-1): Last two races, both on dirt haven’t been against the toughest of foes at Pen and Tim, but nonetheless solid efforts; after the anticipated defections, there may still be enough early speed to set the race up nicely for him to get up in the final strides; C. Quinones picks up the mount 
  2. #4 – Iredell (5-1): ITM 13 of 20 fast track starts with 3 wins but not against this level of competition; the good news is he’s got back class and could face just a half dozen rivals to make life a bit easier to get to Winners’ Circle
  3. #5 – Derek’s Smile (8-1): Mth-based trainer K. Breen holding his on with shippers to Lrl (10:2-1-2) and let’s this one run in spite of race taken off the turf; is quick from the gate and a threat to get the lead and coast if not pressured early on; F. Lynch stays on v. MTO entry #11 

Race 7 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – Lipman (9-2): *** BEST BET *** Won debut in gate-to-wire fashion going two turn at Mth; just missed duplicating that effort on turf in second start; he’s lone speed after most bailed when taken off the turf
  2. #6 – How’s Your Sugar (12-1): Hasn’t run on dirt since mind-June, five races back when fourth but has a history of handling this surface (8:1-2-3); will need pace help
  3. #3 – Tale of Mist (6-1): Has been off form of late with just 3 races sporadically run this year; only getting a mention because he’s just 1 of 3 left in this contest to have won on dirt

Race 8

  1. #3 – Cordmaker (4-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Been in love with this fella first time laid eyes on him at F-T Mid-Atlantic yearling sale in Oct. ’16 and was not surprised by the $150k price tag; ashamed he’s gelded but what presence on the track, moves just like his daddy (Curlin), the stretch out will benefit him the most in here as he’s still learning his craft  
  2. #6 – Hidden Funds (3-1): Broke maiden two back at Del at this distance, the only one in here to have done so; BRIS# edged upward after overcoming a bad start when third in first start v. winners
  3. #7 – Can’t Say No (8-5): …but difficult to say yes thinking this Regal Ransom gelding sent out by trainer J. Navarro may be vulnerable here; easy winner on WO synthetic nearly 2-months ago with a quartet of nice works at Mth since, just not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling about this Loooch shipper  

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #5 – Victory Rally (7-2): Just missed in latest when first race w/Lasix, her turf debut in fourth career race when beaten favorite; back on dirt where she was bridesmaid in prior race going 7 furlongs
  2. #7 – Eskimo Princess (9-2): Trainer C. Lynch gets wish granted for this MTO entry who comes off a fourth-place effort in a two turn MSW affair at Pen; will likely try for a gate-to-wire score here
  3. #11 – Holiday Prayer (8-1): Runner-up in $25kMCL turf event when 25-1 in first start after trainer E. Maher $16k claim; takes another step up and should still run as she was a distant second in lone dirt try

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday October 14th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $8.40 (1st race), $10.20 (2nd), $3.80 (6th), $8.60 (8th) and $4.60 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $59.20 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 326 for 1,158 (28.15%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (116: 37-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Slim (5th race: 3-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) was SCRATCHED Carried out a rival leaving the starting gate, traveled in the two-path on the turn and had just a mild rally to earn a minor share finishing 4th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (103: 18-12-14; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) In It for the Gold (10th race: 6-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) was SCRATCHED when all races originally scheduled for the turf were switched to the main track.