The GQ Approach – Laurel October 14

by | Oct 14, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $828.42
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 5 / #9 – Slim (3-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 10 / #12 – In It for the Gold (6-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 4, 7  w/ 2, 3  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  2, 8, 9  w/ 4, 5, 14  w/ 1, 4, 9  ($13.50)
  • Race 6: 50 cent Pick-5  3, 8  w/ 2, 4  w/ 2, 4, 5  w/ 1, 3, 6  w/ 4, 12 ($36)
  • Race 9: $2 Double  1, 3, 6  w/ 4, 12  ($12)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy; highs in the low-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 0th and 19th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: OFF

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #7 – Chauncey (9-2): Adds blinkers after showing speed in firsts start on turf; was competitive on dirt while improving with each start 
  2. #4 – Meetmeonline (10-1): FL-bred FTS by Line of David out of a Meetmeontime mare seems to be the most likely of the FTSs not to scratch with this event taken off the turf; one bullet work among a dozen works
  3. #1 – Ruby’s Fire (12-1): Will be gunning from the rail with K. Davis in the irons as she was for debut, three back when getting early lead but only good enough to be the bridesmaid

Race 2

  1. #3 – Humbolt Street (3-1): Traffic trouble throughout in latest effort here yet was the one DQ’d from 3rd to 5th; positive jock switch could provide a more skilled ride to get to wire first    
  2. #2 – Rarified Air (9-5): Drops from $10k level after a solid effort to get PLACE purse as trainer C. Gonzalez is 27% with this move; logical ML favorite just thinking he could be vulnerable
  3. #4 – R Lucifer (10-1): D. Acosta must have thought he was at CT on a 4 furlong sprinter when hustling this deep closer to the early lead in last outing, his first time in the irons; hopefully he read the PPs this time and give this gelding 2 furlongs to get into high gear

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Causeur (7-2): Took to the KD turf going a middle distance better than sprinting on dirt, but ran into a very nice field in the latter; look for him to get early lead and F. Lynch nurse it to the wire
  2. #8 – Maynooth (9-2): Runner-up in lone start, when making a nice late move in the stretch sprinting on the Lrl turf; stretches out to two turns but on dirt if trainer C. Lynch so chooses
  3. #2 – Random Thoughts (6-1): Trainer R. Potts ships in a string from Pid to test the Lrl grass but not today; this Stay Thirsty gelding is bred more for the main track so he’ll likely run; second time w/ blinkers
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Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #5 – My Golden Rose (8-1): HOF trainer KTL claimed this filly out of her winning effort in a $10kN2L 7f event on a multi-class drop from high profile ownership group who has no use for claimers; obligatory step up and should catch a depleted field
  2. #4 – Cincy Belle (6-1): This gal’s 12-race career is a head scratcher with 9 on turf but just one win while only fast track start resulted in a gate-to-wire win with a lofty speed figure
  3. #14 – Sweeter Surprise (12-1): On AE list but can easily draw with number of anticipated scratches; PA-bred just 1 for 14 this year but always picks up a check in restricted allowance races

Race 5

  1. #9 – Slim (3-1): *** BEST BET *** If given a consistent ride this could be graduation day… when going 5½f he’s taken too far back early, when going 6f the rider has asked for too much too soon  
  2. #1 – Patriot Saint (3-1): 0 for 25 yet makes just second start in ’17, first in 9-months; like the trio of 4f works as cut back to sprint might make him a winner 
  3. #4 – Whata Guess (5-2): Short stay on the west coast as this gray gelding lost by double-digits at lowest level; appears to be a Morning Glory with bullets in every other work; guaranteed he’ll be amongst the early leaders

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Negrito (9-5): MTO entry gets in while at least a half dozen will bow out; first start after claim, heads to unchartered waters stretching out to one mile
  2. #3 – Datt Melody (3-1): Prefers a little moisture when running on main track but 7-year-old will probably be one of just a handful of competitors in this off the turf $20k claimer
  3. #11 – Cort’n Asong (3-1): Another MTO whose in for the $20k tag for first time since being claimed out of $15k win at Pim in May; after slump got confidence back sprinting at Pen

Race 7 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – Goodbyeseeulater (7-2): Must be the luck of the Irish as trainer K. Magee gets second MTO entry in on today’s card; makes third start for trainer on drop, will be on the early lead and going one turn mile will help the cause 
  2. #4 – Heiko (6-1): Takes steep drop has this 8-year-old gelding has been off form in last three starts; can’t blame connections for trying to steal a win since it’s unlikely anyone will drop the clip in him
  3. #8 – Top Prospect (8-1): Though winless on a fast track (5:0-3-0) foes left in here after scratches won’t be much better; barn went cold last month but got a few wins last weekend 

Race 8

  1. #2 – Fightin Phil (8-5): Exclusively been running on synthetic at Pid since debut there in July; with Majestic Warrior and Hard Spun in pedigree, shouldn’t be any drop-off in transition to dirt  
  2. #5 – Hermans Gold (2-1): Can boast best speed figures in this bunch even with lowest number; distance is the question; gets sixth different pilot in as many career starts
  3. #4 – Raphael’s Promise (6-1): Improved by 10-lengths from dirt sprint debut to route on turf or did he? Drop from MSW to $40k may have helped; gelded since last start; adds Lasix       

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Zinger (6-1): Supposedly the lesser of the two L. Jones uncoupled entries, but this ones’ lone fast track start resulted in a SHOW effort in most recent start, could upset
  2. #6 – Silent Waters (12-1): In this field on 9 not one trains at Lrl; that is all will need to decide if it’s worth shipping in to run on a non-preferred surface; IMHO this one should because he can handle the dirt (2:0-1-1)
  3. #1 – He’ll Pay (5-1): With this contest coming off the turf, not sure trainer L. Jones will ship either of his runners in here; in spite of but never hitting the board in 3 fast track starts, a depleted field might help end that

Race 10 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #12 – In It for the Gold (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ One of two scheduled to race on the card for NY-based trainer R. Rodriguez; this Speightstown filly broke a 4-race string of SHOW efforts to start her career when 7f was too far in latest, weakening late after leading through 5½f which is today’s distance
  2. #4 – Mining for Candy (12-1): CT-based runner was sent off as 8-5 favorite in debut at Del but got roughed up at the start, found herself behind runners and didn’t care to compete in that positive considering her two bullet works should have her seeking to make amends with a gate-to-wire score
  3. #7 – Resolana (15-1): Showed early foot in going 6f on a “good” Lrl main oval 2 back; newly engaged S. Russell (Congrats!) celebrated yesterday w/ 3 winners, takes over for injured V. Carrasco

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday October 13th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.80 (1st race), $4.00 (2nd), $7.20 (4th), $8.40 (5th) and $4.00 (8th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $9.00 (cost: $6). Top Selections in 2017 are 323 for 1,148 (28.14%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (115: 37-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Colonel Andy (4th race: 7-2 M/L) was SCRATCHED when all races originally scheduled for the turf were switched to the main track.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (103: 18-12-14; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Princetonian (6th race: 10-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) originally scheduled for the turf was run a on fast track as the field was reduced to six runners. Moved between horses on the backstretch into the turn, fell back a bit as the top three cleared the rest entering the turn, turned in a mild rally to get up for the SHOW spot and returned $3.40 to SHOW.