The GQ Approach – Laurel October 13

by | Oct 13, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $546
  • Super High 5: $1,817
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 4 / #3 – Colonel Andy (7-2)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 6 / #11 – Princetonian (10-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 3, 7  w/ 4, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  3, 10, 12  w/ 2, 3, 7  w/ 2, 5, 7  ($13.50)
  • Race 6: 50 cent Pick-4  6, 11  w/ 3, 7, 9  w/ 1, 2, 3  w/ 8, 10, 14  ($27)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  1, 2, 3  w/ 8, 10  ($12)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy; highs in the mid-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Madame Milan (7-2): Third in debut w/o Lasix on Del grass when a bit chilly on the board (7-1) for a Lael Stables home/KY-bred who typically do very well with runners on turf; runner-up graduated in next outing; adds Lasix
  2. #7 – Mihrab (5-1): KY-bred FTS by Tiznow out of a Pulpit been prepping in earnest last two months on a strict workout schedule at Fai under the tutelage of G. Motion and gets top local turf rider A. Cintron aboard 
  3. #3 – Welly (12-1): Giving this KY-bred FTS a shot because too many times this capper has witnessed runners with Street Cry in the sire line do well first time going two turns on the turf; completed her works (not ideally) last month with an unusual one mile breeze

Race 2

  1. #4 – Final Forum (3-1): Let’s chalk up that latest to taking a shot on turf and finding out this colt doesn’t care for it; sneaky 5th at The Big T in first race after $7,500 claim as 2nd and 3rd place finishers were next out winners
  2. #6 – Grande Shores (7-2): Third against some tough customers in open $11k claimer after running behind top pick here in that race at Tim; owner/trainer seeking elusive first win of 2017
  3. #1 – Love You Back (6-1): Mini vacation after breezing to an easy win at Tim in Aug. with just one work since gives cause for concern but should get ideal stalking trip behind #3 and #5 who need the lead  

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Elude (8-1): The running lines on paper don’t look like much but those last two were versus better in NY and earned an 86 BRIS# on Sar grass which is tops in this field; trainer T. Albertrani and HOF jock E. Prado are 2 for 2 at the meet with a nice $27.30 ROI
  2. #12 – Dumtadumtadum (12-1): Took 8-months off to mature after failing to hit the board in three starts at age 2, all going this distance on turf; trainer M. “Mad Genius” Dickinson has been patient training this Mineshaft filly steadily the past 3-months and is successful (32%) w/ this approach  
  3. #10 – Cedar Chest (9-1): IRE-bred FTS by Aussie-bred Redoute’s Choice out of a GER-bred mare pretty much covers most international grass racing; last work shown was 3-weeks ago but fired bullets on Fai dirt and synthetic; trainer/jock winning at 42% clip at meet (10 for 24) and yes, I’m an IDOT for leaving the Chad Brown shipper (#10 – Peace Front) out of my top 3 
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Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Colonel Andy (7-2): *** BEST BET *** NY-bred took 10 tries to win in restricted MCL turf company but light bulb came on as he followed that up with a pair of runner-up finishes… going 5f at Mth v. N3L and then 6f at Bel when taking early lead for just second time in career; trainer T. Morley ships in “live” ones (13: 4-4-0)
  2. #7 – Correjon (8-1): Turf pedigree isn’t there for debut on grass but early speed is and this field lacks it other than top pick who may be less eager today; recent bullets include one in mud which could translate to turf; 7 lb. bug F. Ceballos emerging as a top apprentice; could upset at a price
  3. #2 – Totaled the Benz (5-1): Failed in latest as lukewarm favorite when rank and beaten by a next out winner and just behind the#4; needs to be more forwardly placed today

Race 5

  1. #2 – Bull Ensign (7-2): Hasn’t crossed the wire first in over 2 years (0 for 14 during that stretch) but today is the day… yeah, right! Returns to two turn distance in which he’s earned his only two career victories (5:2-1-1); jock switch can’t hurt
  2. #5 – Offlee Brawn (5-2): “Stopped abruptly” is not the type of comment that gives a capper a warm and fuzzy feeling, but was in over his head v. Alw25ks; Jekyll & Hyde runner wins or loses big 
  3. #7 – Abdaar (6-1): One of many in here taking a steep drop off double-digit loss that smells like 3-day old fish; trainer D. Jacobson (2:0-0-0 at meet) ships in this gelding surely with thoughts of a one-way trip; second start with blinkers

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Princetonian (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Lost headbob when 48-1 in first turf try since last Dec. when 4th at same level; classic case of better form on turf than on dirt; can’t dismiss latest as a fluke especially with H. Karamanos in the irons
  2. #6 – Mar Vista Miguel (7-2): Both turf efforts (a win and 3rd) came when on or just off lead; he’ll face some pressure from multiple foes but could prove to be classiest as he’s faced better
  3. #5 – Speedy Slew (8-1): Needs to bring A+ game to prevail as turf number must climb once again; beaten favorite in latest to a pair back in today; positive jock switch could be the difference

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Odlum (3-1): Loved the yielding Lrl lawn in late Summer, just missed being 2 for 2 by a head to #6 in here when favorite while 5-lengths clear of SHOW runner; needs the lead and will get it as candidates who’d challenge him early opted not to in the past; look for gate-to-wire score
  2. #9 – Intrepid Citizen (3-1): Can never count out this gelding yet you’ll always get good value on him; believe he wasn’t in tip-top shape for latest and can get back to Winners’ Circle today
  3. #7 – Barney Rebel (5-1): Has this 9-year-old finally lost his edge? That’s how last outing reads but willing to give him a pass as entire barn went cold in Sept. but started Oct. with a couple winners  

Race 8

  1. #2 – Dynashe (10-1): Winner by 9-lengths in debut in an off the turf two turn event at Del after acting badly prior to the start; only faced 3 foes but runner-up graduated in next outing; continues to train well for conditioner M. Stidham whose just 1 for 23 at current meet
  2. #3 – Theodosia (3-1): Broke maiden when stretched out to one mile after a trio of sprints to start career; gray filly is built for two turns and a pair of works since latest appears she is improving
  3. #1 – Vente to Go (12-1): Professional looking debut win when 17-1 as the pace numbers add up here to be in top 3; adds Lasix for small but successful outfit (3 for 10 in ’17)

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Grand Lassie (6-1): Deep Closer in both turf starts while not coming from turf pedigree but whose to argue with reality? Was 5-wide on turn in debut and checked sharply in latest yet still rallied for a minor share; makes second start of ‘17
  2. #10 – Conjecture (4-1): Been a money burner while runner-up twice when Post Time favorite including last outing when dropped to this bottom level claimer; trainer/jock combo are 3 for 5 in the past year 
  3. #14 – Nina’s Patience (8-1): Runner-up in Lrl lawn debut when dropped to this level, running record to 15:0-2-4; if jock S. Uske really does come down to ride that’s certainly a positive sign

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • Ol’ GQ skipped the Monday, Columbus Day card but on Sunday October 8th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.00 (1st race), $4.60 (2nd), $9.80 (4th), $6.20 (6th) and $7.20 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $23.20 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 321 for 1,139 (28.18%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (115: 37-25-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Wind Tartare (3rd race: 5-2 M/L) was SCRATCHED when all races originally scheduled for the turf were switched to the main track.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (102: 18-12-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Six Tonsafun (9th race: 8-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) originally scheduled for the turf was run a on fast track as half of the field was scratched. After a clean break, moved up two-wide between horses on the turn, bid for the lead entering the stretch and prevailed under brisk urging to win by a half-length and returned $7.20 to WIN, $4.00 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.