The GQ Approach – Laurel September 29

by | Sep 29, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,819
  • Super High 5: $3,089
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 9 / #5 – My Sister Caro (5-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 8 / #7 – Jarvis Steel (15-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1: $2 Double  6, 9  w/ 2, 6, 7  ($12)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  2, 9, 10  w/ 2, 3, 10  w/ 4, 6, 8  ($13.50)
  • Race 7: 50 cent Pick-4  1, 4, 7  w/ 4, 7, 9  w/ 2, 5  w/ 1, 3, 4 ($27)
  • Race 9: $2 Double  2, 3, 5  w/ 1, 3  ($12)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the low-70’s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th and 10th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Huracan (7-2): The 0 for 16 is a concern but clearly has turned in the best race (82 BRIS#) among those in this contest; that was just two back at this level, prior to an ill-advised run against MSW earlier this month
  2. #9 – Bungalow (5-2): Figures that the ML favorite is the only runner who has yet to race on the turf; Shackleford and Smarty Jones bloodlines don’t scream turf but was third behind a runner-up who came back last weekend to break his maiden on turf in a $16kMCL
  3. #4 – My Pal Jerry (12-1): Gets back on turf following runner-up effort at Tim in slop at bottom level in which he was claimed; first time going two turns as previous turf running lines suggest he might like it

Race 2

  1. #2 – Humbolt Street (5-1): Ironically appears to be lone early speed in this 5½ furlong contest; yeah the 2 for 30 lifetime record isn’t too comforting but win #2 came two back followed by runner-up finish in last; trainer D. Capuano seems to have figured out what makes him tick
  2. #6 – The Iron Bank (7-2): Third when 6-wide on the turn versus $10kN3L just 5 days ago after romping against $5kN2L; has run behind top pick and #5 three times each, but the later in a deep Closer who need more real estate
  3. #7 – Raven Rush (6-1): Makes first start of ’17 showing just one workout and first against N3L; takes advantage of Waiver Claiming Rule to protect him; barn has been cold of late, could use a win

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Shifra Magician (6-1): Note that jock F. Boyce, who has been riding all of trainer P. McBurney’s runners, does not in here (#7) and bails on #3 as well; she does well on this mare when on turf (3:1-1-1)
  2. #2 – Meddybemps (7-2): Drops to an easier spot while turf BRIS#s been climbing; recorded career best (90) with blinkers on in latest, yet only good enough for the SHOW purse; makes fifth start on Lrl lawn, trying to hit the board for the first time
  3. #9 – Hassah (3-1): Takes a small step up in class as this consistent runner has been part of the Exacta in her last 6 of 7 efforts including two wins; retains D. Centeno in the irons
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Race 4

  1. #3 – Spot On Fark (5-2): Rail assignment is no prize but this two-time beaten favorite can make amends with a clean, straight break from the gate; otherwise he’ll be CT-bound
  2. #10 – Wilko’s Goldeneye (7-2): Been knocking on the door trying to get diploma all year yet seems to run down to his competitors level; addition of blinkers has helped in last 3 (twice runner-up v. better and SHOWed v. similar)
  3. #2/2x – Slim/Victor Newman (4-1): Slim needs some pace help and didn’t get it when in against just 4 foes in latest; Victor missed best chance to graduate when runner-up at Tim going 4 furlongs in first start in 10 months as he cannot carry speed beyond 5 panels

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Sarah’s Whisper (10-1): Draw a line through latest, an off the turf event (she’s 1 for 22 on dirt); ignore fact that jock Al Cortez is 1 for 45 at current meet; he’ll have this mare on top by two going into the far turn and only if some other jock is crazy enough to ask their mount for early speed they don’t possess, can this 7-year-old mare be denied a chance to go gate-to-wire
  2. #4 – Sur Empire (6-1): Tried going two turns on the turf and the result was the same as previous tries… early speed and faded in stretch; so she’s back sprinting just 5 days later w/ a positive jock switch 
  3. #6 – Sweet Little Lies (6-1): Been mixing it up with much better of late and her Also-Ran results reflect it; need to go back to her two, open claiming race, similar to this one where she ran well; S. Russell off #1, #2 and #9 to ride her 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Flax Flower (9-2): KY-bred FTS by Exchange Rate out of a Cee’s Tizzy mare for Calumet Farm has a bullet in final work for trainer L. Gaudet who has won with 29% of firsters, 1 of 5 when on turf
  2. #9 – In Jail (8-5): Most experienced filly with three previous starts; was heavily backed (1-1) in first turf effort after a fifth-place finish in prior dirt try; hmmm… but failed to deliver when she weakened in her final strides, settling for the SHOW purse
  3. #10 – Rubys Fire (12-1): Steps up from $40kMCL to MSW after a rough trip around the bull ring at Tim which came after runner-up effort in debut that was washed off turf 

Race 7

  1. #1 – Smooth B (7-5): Unable pull off upset in Sapling at Mth when stretched out to one mile, fading late; majority of foes lack stamina in their bloodlines to challenge
  2. #7 – Chinquapin (5-1): Strong gate-to-wire maiden win in second start but was sprinting on turf when blinkers were added after game third-place effort in debut on dirt; pedigree suggests he should be OK on stretch out
  3. #4 – Hidden Funds (2-1): Only runner to have won at this one mile distance which was his maiden breaker, earning an 82 BRIS#; trainer M. Pino and jock M. Sanchez hawon at 36% clip over the past year

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Jarvis Steel (15-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Speed, speed, speed… where is it? Only see it from this fella who lately has been dogged by rivals early but that’s not the case in this contest; jock just may be able to give him a breather on the turn so that he has enough stamina to hold off rivals late… as long as the #11 doesn’t draw in from the AE
  2. #4 – My Enigma (7-2): Took a brief vacation after an easy win at this level in late July; in fact last two wins have comes against similar so if he’s ready to fire off the bench he should be right there
  3. #9 – Frisky Magician (6-1): Tactical speed and drops back to level where he was runner-up over this turf course which was the last time he raced at Lrl

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – My Sister Caro (5-1): *** BEST BET *** Del shipper returns to Lrl where she’s liked it (2:1-1-0); that loss was to #2 by just a neck; her tactical speed should give A. Cintron a perfect stalking trip to pounce on her leg-weary rivals in deep stretch
  2. #2 – Dare to Be (5-1): Took a shot in minor stakes but was outrun; returns to level where she has been successful; deep Closer needs pace help and should get it from a number of rivals 
  3. #3 – Daylight Ahead (3-1): Gate-to-wire winner in state-bred stakes in June going 6 furlongs but had no business trying to stretch out to 9 furlongs; was doomed in latest due to bad start when returning to sprint; with a good start she can get the best of these gals

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Wicked Heat (8-5): Always takes action at the windows yet is just 6 for 16 on the turf; exits a win for this same tag, his third in a row on the grass going two turns while the two prior were on the drop; guess horsemen aren’t interested in claiming a runner out of conditions off trainer T. Kreiser (29% in ’17; 4 for 9 at Lrl)
  2. #1 – My Vet’s a Genius (10-1): Though never has hit the board in seven turf tries at Lrl for trainer B. Heckrotte who seeks first win of ‘17, encouraged that K. Davis returns to ride after a game try on front end v. $15k open claimers when 78-1
  3. #4 – Winter Springs (5-2): Got knifed at the wire by top pick in latest after leading at every pole on a yielding turf; it will be quite firm today which will help chances immensely

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • On Sunday September 24th at Laurel had just 6 winners from the 11-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.40 (1st race), $10.80 (2nd), $9.80 (4th), $7.00 (8th), $7.40 (9th) and $17.00 (11th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE paid $30.60 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 299 for 1,078 (27.74%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (111: 35-24-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Zippity Gal (8th race: 5-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) bumped at the break, settled off the early pace, edged up off the rail into the lane, was guided out to the center of the course in mid-stretch, closed sharply under pressure, forged to command with about fifty yards to go and won going away by two-lengths and returned $7.40 to WIN, $4.20 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (96: 16-11-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Greek Prince (9th race: 8-1 M/L; 8-1 PT) raced four-wide on the turn and gave way in the stretch to finish seventh.