The GQ Approach – Laurel September 24

by | Sep 24, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $764
  • Super High 5: $3,246
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 8 / #7 – Zippity Gal (5-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 9 / #7 – Greek Prince (8-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 6, 9  w/ 6, 9  ($12)
  • Race 4: .50 cent Pick-4   2, 8, 9  w/ 4, 11, 12  w/ 3, 4  w/ 3, 6, 9  ($27)
  • Race 8: .50 cent Pick-4  7, 9, 12  w/ 2, 7, 9  w/ 5, 10  w/ 3, 9, 11 ($27)
  • Race 10: $2 Double  3, 5, 10  w/ 3, 9 ($12)
[/su_box]

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the mid-80’s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Lenape Rim (4-1): Lone entry/mount for Pen-based team of M. Salvaggio/W. Otero but will need to turn tables on both the #1 and #6 in here as she’s been runner-up to both over the past year
  2. #6 – Cara’s Nay Nay (2-1): Logical choice as she’s 4 for 5 on Lrl turf as she’s run fourth in last two elsewhere
  3. #1 – Ultimate Avary (3-1): Last couple have been against better; prior to that won v. $16k claimers

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Survey (5-1): Third time could be the charm after this son of Galileo was an Also-Ran on the turf at Bel and Sar
  2. #6 – Archaggelos (6-1): Runner-up in debut on the Del turf is royally bred to be successful on the green; trainer “Mad Genius” Dickinson seeks first win in second start at Lrl meet
  3. #4 – Quail Hunt (10-1): FTS by Trappe Shot out of a Dynaformer mare being sent out by trainer M. Matz who specializes in turf runners; extended work tab has just one beyond 4 furlongs though

Race 3

  1. #2 – Rarified Air (6-1): Two-race win streak snapped at Tim in the slop as that winner came back to win easily yesterday on a class drop
  2. #7 – The Iron Bank (6-1): Romped against $5kN2L and can handle jump up to $10k as he should take advantage of a potential pace meltdown
  3. #1/1A – Nico’s On the Run/Catcher (6-1): Both have equal chance at winning here; #1 in gate-to-wire fashion as #1A on big class drop will take a stalking route
[widget id=”text-21″]

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Blame Henry (5-1): Nice late run in debut on Mth grass; should move forward after that educational experience
  2. #9 – Anna Strong (6-1): FTS by Uncle Mo out of a Dixie Union mare should love distance and turf; love the fact she’s been training for going long via two 6 furlong works among 5 furlong ones
  3. #8 – Smarty Smart (7-2): Switches surfaces and distance after a pair of dirt sprints at Sar, showing a bit of early speed in debut while “evenly” in second start

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Offshore Trip (5-1): Has increased speed figures in subsequent starts and will race for second time with blinkers, a nice angle that doesn’t get much publicity
  2. #4 – Jarvis (6-1): Lrl turf lately has played much like sister track GP in the winter… hard and fast as a highway… this gelding is a threat to go gate-to-wire
  3. #12 – Put Em Up (7-2): Boasts best turf BRIS# (82) of this bunch, adds blinkers which trainer L. Gaudet is 27% using that equipment change

Race 6

  1. #3 – Soul Prince (5-1): 3-year-old takes advantage of condition allowing him to face elders who have only won twice; all 3 of his wins have comes at this one mile distance
  2. #4 – Bull Ensign (7-2): Just 2 for 20 and 0 for 9 at distance, takes logical class drop to bottom claiming level in hopes to wake him up
  3. #6 – Sebray (12-1): Makes first start in 13-months and connections take advantage of Claiming Waiver Rule; nice work tab for comeback includes bullets in last two

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Notjudginjustsayin (8-5): Fields lacks early speed and though latest effort was in an off the turf event going one mile, he led until 50 yards to the wire
  2. #6 – Lacrostix (6-1): FTS by Trappe Shot out of an El Corredor mare hails from a successful outfit with positive ROI with debut runners on turf
  3. #9 – Royal Hussar (9-2): 0 for 12 while 0 for 4 on turf but latest turf try was behind a number of tough runners, backed up by 79 BRIS#

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Zippity Gal (5-1): *** BEST BET *** Best speed figure of 10 race career came in most recent start, her first for HOF conditioner KTL; looking for her to be more forwardly placed today now that she has been introduced to sprinting on turf
  2. #9 – Eye On Berlin (5-2): Beat a number of these rivals in here in latest when claimed by trainer K. Magee; very unlike this trainer to not run right back at higher level v. wait
  3. #12 – Seaside Schiller (15-1): Draw a line through latest, her first on dirt and on Tim bull ring; prior to that broke awkwardly losing all chance in sprint; would not surprise this Capper    

Race 9

  1. #7 – Greek Prince (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Passed up chance at first turf try yesterday at same class level; one of just two in here to have won at this distance
  2. #2 – Valhalla (9-2): NY-based trainer is 0 for 5 at meet but continues to ship in strong contenders as is this colt who beat $20k claimers in latest but that was on July 9th AND restricted to 3 y.o.
  3. #9 – Stay Home (4-1): The other runner with a win going 7 furlongs… in fact two of them in as many tries; never OTB at Lrl (4:2-0-2)

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Team Tim (6-1): Traffic trouble through the stretch in latest, which was nearly two months ago and came after a two-month break; can get the best of this group IF he’s in near top form
  2. #5 – Here’s to Mike (3-1): Best on turf but a few red flags in that why is this gelding being offered for $4k less than $20k level on the class drop and why isn’t D. Centeno in the irons for J. Cibelli
  3. #3 – Flight Crew (15-1): Should be on the lead early as he exits 5 furlong sprints on the grass but does have the stamina to go long based on gate-to wire win going 1 mile 70 yards on “good” Pen main track

Race 11 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Victory Rally (5-2): Filly bred to go long but not necessarily the turf; trainer M. Matz conditions his runners at Fai and surely some of the works came on the synthetic if not turf there; stretch out from 3 dirt sprints
  2. #3 – Love’s Legend (15-1): Not much early speed in this contest so why not go with this gal who has gotten early leads but couldn’t finish on off-the-turf events in last two
  3. #11 – Thirsty Madam (10-1): Drops in for the tag first time after so-so efforts against top talent; third start for trainer M. Trombetta after showing more in NY with previous trainer     

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday September 23rd at Laurel had just 5 winners from the 11-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.40 (2nd race), $2.80 (5th), $2.80 (8th), $12.60 (10th) and $19.60 (12th). Top Selections in 2017 are 297 for 1,067 (27.84%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (110: 34-24-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Star Flare (6th race: 4-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) jock failed to get her mount to the lead which immediately spelled doom, took position at the rail throughout stalking a trio of leaders, had an opening entering the stretch but did not respond and was only good enough for fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (95: 16-11-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Antietam Creek (12th race: 15-1 M/L; 8-1 PT) a bit rank at the break, was rated back soon after and wisely guided well off the rail, commenced a run leaving the three-eighths pole and was edging away at the wire to prevail by three-quarters of a length and returned $19.60 to WIN, $7.20 to PLACE and $4.20 to SHOW.