The GQ Approach – Laurel September 23

by | Sep 23, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 1 comment

Chublicious

Chublicious was up late to defeat Blu Moon Ace in the De Francis Dash. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Rainbow Pick 6: no carryover
  • Super High 5: $2,725
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 6 / #6 – Star Flare (4-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 12 / #4 – Antietam Creek (15-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  2, 5, 8  w/ 2, 7  ($12)
  • Race 3: .50 cent Pick-3   1, 9, 10  w/ 1, 8, 10  w/ 3, 4, 8  ($13.50)
  • Race 6: .50 cent Pick-3   2, 6, 13  w/ 1, 5, 7  w/ 1, 3, 10  ($13.50)
  • Race 9: .50 cent Pick-4  2, 8  w/ 1, 3, 7  w/ 2, 4, 9  w/ 4, 6, 7 ($27)
  • Race 11: $2 Double  2, 4, 9  w/ 4, 6 ($12)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the mid-80’s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th and 11th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: FIRM

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Totaled the Benz (5-1): Draw a line through his two non-turf starts and you find a potential local turf star; troubled trip in recent turf effort yet only lost by a head; trainer/jock combo been winning at 26% clip at meet
  2. #2 – Trustifarian (10-1): Took some time to regroup after being too aggressive going from debut win in MSW to state-bred stakes; a serious threat IF he can run back to maiden breaking effort
  3. #8 – Love You Much (5-1): Away from races the past 2 months waiting for this spot; has improved each time he’s stepped on the turf; hot riding A. Cintron subs for H. Karamanos who is at Prx to ride Page McKenney in stakes

Race 2

  1. #2 – Ice Tea (9-5): No worse than fourth in last 8 outings and never OTB in 4 starts at Lrl (4:1-1-2); 3 y.o. has four career wins and prefers fast track; trainer/jock have won 3 of 7          
  2. #7 – Mischievous Dan (5-1): Only other runner in here having more than 2 wins; additional 1/16th will certainly help his cause
  3. #5 – Segovia (3-1): If “Seconditis” was a word in the dictionary, there’d be a photo of this 7 y.o.; (26: 2-11-3); lost headbob in latest and looking to break 0 for 16 at Lrl 

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Black Prong (6-1): Two nice outings on turf to hit the board in both while handling stretch out from 5 1/2 f to one mile and stepping from $16k to MSW; drops back in for the $16k tag
  2. #10 – Praise the Moon (3-1): Sheds blinkers again hoping to find a way to get first win after starting career 0 for 14; drop from $40k at Sar to $16k at Lrl is one way to crack into the win column
  3. #1 – English Tudor (15-1): Bred to run on turf and gets first chance to run on grass after last two were washed off the turf; KTL is 29% with runners first race after claim

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Skippin to Victory (10-1): Speed from the rail sprinting on the Lrl lawn can be a winning combination, especially when there aren’t any other candidates whose name will be called by Dave Rodman as being on the lead heading into the far turn
  2. #8 – Chilly Magician (9-2): Only two victories came when the turf was listed as “yielding” which it won’t be today, it’ll be firm but drop back to $16k will help chances to arrive on the scene late 
  3. #10 – Mist On the Moskva (6-1): Only mount on the 11-race card for Pen jock W. Otero; late runner finally meets a full field which should give him a chance t0 unleash her Closing kick
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Race 5

  1. #3 – Tattered (7-2): $225k purchase this past March ran third in debut going 5f at Prx when sent off 3-1 two-months ago, runner-up graduated in next outing; stretch out to one mile fits pedigree 
  2. #4 – El Corazon (7-5): Ran a big BRIS# (81) in debut at Del; like the work tab at Fai since but K. Rubley’s trainees are 0 for 21 first time going a route 
  3. #8 – Cades Cove Loop (10-1): Adds blinkers after an “evenly” type of effort here in debut going 5 furlongs against a couple nice maidens; stretch out to one mile makes sense

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Star Flare (4-1): *** BEST BET *** NJ-bred failed to get early lead in first start v. state-bred winners and first time in six career turf starts, all at Mth; that won’t happen in Lrl debut as F. Boyce WILL get this filly to the lead and make every poll a winning one having to travel a 1/16th shorter
  2. #13 – El Vedado (5-1): Always gives his best effort at these middle distance races on turf but lone win came when she went gate-to-wire which seems unlikely while unable to get lead versus cheaper
  3. #2 – Majestic Trick (8-1): Seeks first in-the-money finish since being claimed out of maiden win back in Apr.; needs to be closer to the pack earlier to make an impact in deep stretch; has recorded best turf BRIS# of those in here

Race 7

  1. #7 – Utter Magic (7-2): Pressed winner in 4 furlong outing at The Big T but could get by that one yet 6 furlongs here previously was a bit too far, so today’s 5½f contest should be what the doctor ordered
  2. #1/1A – Me Darlin Chessie/Me Darlin Kara (12-1): This KTL duo ran 3rd & 4th when making their debuts on the Tim bull ring after “Chessie” had a meltdown in the paddock; both got an education and should take another step forward while getting more ground to cover
  3. #5 – Sensational Notion (5-1): Most experienced maiden in here with 11 starts, which is not a good thing; just a length behind top pick in latest when 4th; S. Hamilton back aboard having put this gelding in-the-money 5 of 6 times he’s been in the irons

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Monavista Crossing (2-1): Shocked The Spa on Labor Day weekend winning in first race in 10-months when sent off 10-1 going gate-to-wire… and she’ll do the same today to make it 5 wins in last 5 starts
  2. #3 – Southern Peach (6-1): 6 y.o. mare has improved since trainer D. Capuano claimed her from KTL three races back for $7,500, stepping up into AlwN1x to SHOW then winning v. Alw5000S; jock upgrade today as well
  3. #10 – My Sistersledge (6-1): Though third in latest it was her first ever race not on turf; she’ll welcome getting back on the lawn as she’s been a consistent earner v. better; should be flying on outside in final strides

Race 9

  1. #8 – Petion Night (6-1): Earned SHOW purse in debut at this same level when off at 16-1; trainer L. Albert has $4.27 ROI with runners making second start and $4.75 ROI when first Lasix
  2. #2 – Patriotic Quest (8-1): MD-bred FTS by Aesome Patriot out of a Coronado’s Quest mare work tab appears she has some talent… and against this group it shouldn’t take much of it; No Lasix but like that owner/trainer A. Eubanks gives J. Torres mount as this duo has won at 29% clip over the past year
  3. #1/1A – He’s Out of Queens/Brahms Breeze (7-2): AR-bred stablemates a pair of 15% jocks who do better when aboard trainer J. Ness runners; #1 is FTS w/ extensive work tab; #1A ran better when Lasix was administered for second start when dropped from $12,500 to $10k

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Billy the Bull (8-5): Melted in a fierce speed duel on a yielding turf when in against much better first start after trainer M. Eppler claim; gets class relief plus will have an easier go off it early along with a firm turf
  2. #1/1A – Puturseatbelton/Came Back (5-1): #1 latest turf start came 3 back at today’s distance and condition was a win; #1A is on AE, if he draws he’s finished less than a length behind entrymate twice
  3. #3 – I Stand Alone (8-1): Will need pace help from unlikely sources; first start since trainer F. Allen reclaimed him, which is typically a good sign

Race 11 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Southside Warrior (5-1): On a recent trip to Sar w/ a couple runners, trainer M. Trombetta claimed this MD-bred or $40k and brought him home to earn some MD bonus money; a win here nearly pays for this 4 y.o. colt
  2. #9 – Forever in Love (9-2): Helplessly chased lone speed for 9 furlongs in most recent effort; part of Exacta in all 3 Lrl lawn tries (3:1-2-0); trainer L. Rice’s only entry on card is human once again (14% at meet) after winning at 54% clip during Lrl winter meet
  3. #2 – Tusk (4-1): Claimed in latest from trainer G. Motion, new trainer R. Rodriguez ships in from Bel this graded stakes placed Tapit gray gelding seeking 4th career victory, each at today’s distance

Race 12

  1. #4 – Antietam Creek (15-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Pace makes the race; no less than 6 of her 9 rivals need/want the early lead which sets this race up perfectly for this gray mare who on a fast track will come flying in deep stretch to earn her 3rd career victory in 32nd start…it could happen!
  2. #6 – High Rewards (7-2): With just three races on her resume’ and two wins, who knows how good this 3 y.o. can get; speed figures from both wins are good enough to win against these
  3. #7 – She Is Special (3-1): Well maybe not so much as she has been on a class free-fall since winning OC$25k seven races back before K. Magee scarfed her up for a nickel when runner-up

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday September 22nd at Laurel had 8 winners from the 11-race card (6 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.40 (1st race), $4.00 (2nd), $6.60 (4th), $5.00 (5th), $2.60 (6th), $6.00 (7th), $11.00 (9th) and $10.60 (10th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE paid $12.40 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 294 for 1,055 (27.87%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (109: 34-24-19; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Ring Collector (1st race: 3-1 M/L; 8-5 PT) chased the pace three wide around the turn, drifted to the five-path in upper stretch, took command approaching the eighth pole then drew out under urging to win by four-and-one-quarter-lengths and returned $5.40 to WIN, $3.60 to PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (94: 15-11-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Blame Me (4th race: 8-1 M/L; 9-1 PT) bobbled at the break and bumped with a rival, chased while outside a runner leaving the far turn, came three-wide for the drive and lacked a bid to finish fourth.