The GQ Approach – Timonium September 4

by | Sep 4, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Racing at Timonium. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium Fair Grounds for the 7 days of live racing during the Maryland State Fair (Aug. 25-27; Sept. 1-4), Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including Pick-4s and rolling Doubles and Pick-3s.
 

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Rainbow Pick 6: not offered at The Big T
  • Super High 5: not offered at The Big T
  • Late Pick 5: not offered at The Big T[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 4 / #3 – Bring Me Answers (5-2)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 5 / #9 – Northern Prancer (8-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  3, 4, 7  w/ 3, 4  ($12)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3   1, 6, 7  w/ 1, 2, 3  w/ 6, 7, 9  ($13.50)
  • Race 6: $0.50 cent Pick-4  3, 4, 8  w/ 1, 4, 7  w/ 1, 2  w/ 2, 5, 7  ($27)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  1, 2, 4  w/ 2, 7  ($12)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the low-70’s
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: Non-existent

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:05pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #3 – Beverly Mine (8-1): Squeezed back at the start in latest v. similar unable to get lead; can go gate-2-wire w/ clean break 
  2. #4 – Weekend Oasis (4-1): Horrible start in sprint here on Opening Day when Post Time fav.; can makes amends here 
  3. #7 – Zenna (7-5): Exits maiden win at CT when cut back in similar distance to today; trainer/jock combo win at 26% clip 

Race 2

  1. #4 – Stay Home (7-5): Nice tactical speed while earning consistent speed figures higher than foes best
  2. #3 – Ballivor (5-1): Draw a line thru turf tries and you find a runner who fits well in this spot; confident move in 1st start after claim 
  3. #5 – Union Grace (10-1): First start of ’17 came two weeks ago in shorter dash; setups him up nicely for chance to upset on front-end

Race 3

  1. #7 – Catch (4-1): Game try last week to be runner-up v. similar when encountering traffic; gets favorable pace scenario to catch speed 
  2. #1 – Kinahora (7-2): Earned first win going shorter here last Saturday; stretch out and being on rail makes this event much tougher
  3. #6 – Jax (8-5): 1 of 3 in here who won at The Big T last weekend; found enough stamina to hold off rivals then, tougher task today 
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Race 4

  1. #3 – Bring Me Answers (5-2): ** BEST BET ** An “All or nothing” type of runner has performed the best at this class level
  2. #2 – Next Street (5-1): 3-yr-old has won 5 times has all rivals except top pick have only 2 victories; can handle step up in class
  3. #1 – She Is Special (7-2): Claimed for $5k out of latest in mud when bridesmaid as heavy favorite; ran behind #3 & #5 two back

Race 5

  1. #9 – Northern Prancer (8-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Faced a better group in latest who were N2Y OR N5L as this condition is N1Y OR N4L
  2. #6 – Princess Tiznow (2-1): Trainer wins at 28% this year and ships in from Pen; runner-up at shorter distance, will relish more ground 
  3. #7 – It’s a Trend (12-1): Stepping up a bit in class but appears to be a horse for this course having a win & 2 seconds in 3 tries here

Race 6

  1. #8 – Scarlett’s Ransom (9-2): Has class edge over rivals and fastest early speed numbers; needs the lead as she’s never passed anyone
  2. #4 – Greely’s Bustnout (3-1): Gave trainer a gift by winning on his 74th birthday last week; loves this short sprint but in v. tougher 
  3. #3 – Wild Cheers (7-2): Showed a new dimension in latest after slow start showed late interest; likes Tim dirt (2:1-1-0)

Race 7

  1. #4 – Trulamo (3-1): Needs pace help as she will arrive on the scene late; 1st start since Feb. but like the workout schedule
  2. #7 – Include Gold (3-1): Good sign when trainer reclaims runner he lost 8 months ago; solid runner can make it 2-in-a-row
  3. #1 – Priss (8-1): Been on the shelf since an ill-advised start in turf stakes race at Pim; will likely gun to early lead 

Race 8

  1. #2 – My Magician (5-1): Got buried in latest by a group of top local fillies; none in here with that level of talent 
  2. #1 – Line of Best Fit (2-1): Big cut back in distance after best effort of her career when third against best filly in the country 
  3. #4 – Spanish Concert (5-2): Guaranteed to be on the early lead without much pressure which makes this 7-yr-old a threat to steal it 

Race 9

  1. #2 – Ogeechee (2-1): Trainer bonus money on the line so this speedster gets dropped multiple class levels; trainer 41% w/ this angle
  2. #7 – Creepy the Crab (12-1): 0 for 14 but “The Creeper” been showing late interest recently; best finish of career came here in ‘16
  3. #5 – A.P. Americain (7-2): Another conditioner looking to grab trainer bonus; runner best suited for turf but is a player on class drop  

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday September 3rd at Timonium had 7 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.60 (1st race), $3.80 (2nd), $5.00 (3rd), $9.40 (5th), $3.40 (7th), $4.00 (8th) and $10.60 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE paid $10.00 (cost: $12) and the R8-R9 $2 DOUBLE paid $22.20 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 271 for 969 (27.97%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (102: 33-22-16; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Double Whammy (8th race: 3-1 M/L; 8-5 PT) raced along the rail, chased the pace then gave way to finish 4th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (89: 14-11-13; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Red Hot Poker (4th race: 5-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) caught in tight quarters leaving the starting gate, raced three wide to the far turn and rallied to be runner-up and returned $6.00 to PLACE and $4.00 to SHOW.