The GQ Approach – Timonium August 26

by | Aug 26, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium Fair Grounds for the 7 days of live racing during the Maryland State Fair (Aug. 25-27; Sept. 1-4), Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including Pick-4s and rolling Doubles and Pick-3s.
 

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6: not offered at The Big T
  • Super High 5: not offered at The Big T
  • Late Pick 5: not offered at The Big T[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 5 / #4 – Seventy Niner (9-2)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 2 / #3 – Crazy Bernice (15-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1: $2 Double  2, 3, 8  w/ 2, 3  ($12)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3   3, 6, 9  w/ 5, 6, 8  w/ 3, 4, 5  ($13.50)
  • Race 7: $0.50 cent Pick-4  3, 5, 8  w/ 1, 8, 10  w/ 2, 7, 10  w/ 4, 7, 9  ($40.50)
  • Race 9: $2 Double  2, 7, 10  w/ 7, 9  ($12)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the low-80’s
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST; Turf: Non-existent

Post Time for Race 1 is 1:05pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #3 – Kingdom Minded (3-1): Gelded after latest when he bore out badly on the turn as 1-1 favorite; inside post should help as well
  2. #2 – Unleash the Beast (5-2): Might be the quickest from the gate and relish having to go just 4 furlongs while getting class relief
  3. #8 – Jack Wabbit (8-1): First-time starter has pedigree to be fast & precocious as sire won debut by 9+; ran in BC Sprint; love the works

Race 2

  1. #3 – Crazy Bernice (15-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Gets lead today w/o much pressure, could wire’m; runners are 4 for 8 in 1st start w/ trainer 
  2. #2 – Victory’s Secret (6-5): Well-traveled mare drops to bottom claiming level seeking cure for her ‘Second-itis” (10:1-5-0)
  3. #6 – Catch (4-1): Showed late interest sprinting vs. similar in latest effort; jock who guided her to lone win is back aboard today 

Race 3

  1. #6 – Wondering Ways (3-5): After 10 tries at So. Cal tracks connections sold him and he has a new home in MD and faces easier foes
  2. #3 – Lapse (8-1): Purchased for $375k as a yearling; T. Pletcher gave up on him after one race; finally showed life when 3rd in latest
  3. #9 – Radar Gun (15-1): Third race after layoff; drops from $10kMCL seeking first in-the-money finish in 10th career start
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Race 4

  1.  #8 – Kinahora (4-5): Been on the lead at the 1st Call in both career outings; faded to 4th when sent off 4-5 favorite after 1 year vacation 
  2.  #5 – Wedgewood Blue (7-2): Has improved speed figures in each of her 3 dirt starts she finished v. $10kMCL; second start w/ blinkers 
  3. #6 – Slay (10-1): Very disappointing debut when sent off 9-2 at Del in $20kMCL; takes hasty drop to bottom level for successful barn 

Race 5

  1. #4 – Seventy Niner (9-2): *** BEST BET *** 1 of 4 in this event whose last win came during last year’s meet; his was best of career
  2. #5 – It’s a Bang (5-1): Exits brief layoff after a string of races earning minor awards at this level where he’s steadily improved speed figs
  3. #3 – It’s a Plane (10-1): Gelding loves The Big T (3:2-0-1) as he was 1 of 2 runners to win twice during ’16 meet; been racing on turf

Race 6

  1. #2 – Little Miss Jojo (5-2): Filly has a huge heart as she had hurdles just to get to the track; sentimental favorite but talented as well
  2. #4 – Breaking Waterford (8-1): Makes third career start plugging from $25kMCL, 1 yr. after debut; hung tough for 4 furlongs when wide
  3. #10 – Prerogative (12-1): Career debut was ugly (9th by 20) when 15-1; no reason to like her except for trainer stats (33% 2nd race & drops) 

Race 7

  1. #5 – Lawyer Dave (10-1): 8-yr-old has tons of back class and should prove he’s not ready to retire w/ a late run here
  2. #8 – Behzad’s Pride (3-1): Got the best of #5 & #8 when winning last two outings; will have plenty of company early on in this field of 10
  3. #3 – Adversary (8-1): Became a much better runner after claim & 2 so-so turf tries switching back to dirt, winning last 2 by combined 15 lengths

Race 8

  1. #8 – Shape of You (3-1): Filly takes one the boys once again; was 3rd behind a colt who won a stakes race at Bel next outing; You go girl! 
  2. #1 – Tomater Gator (4-1): Tough assignment on the rail for career debut but love the work pattern; trainer/jock combo win at 24% clip 
  3. #10 – Speedy Now (5-1): First time starter by Fast Bullet who ran to his name ships in from Pid sporting 4 sharp workouts for 19% trainer

Race 9 is the $75,000 Coalition Stakes

  1. #10 – Greatbullsoffire (6-1): Takes on elders in 3-yr-old debut after sensational ’16 (6:4-0-2); MD-bred, F-T Sales grad is in bonus heaven 
  2. #7 – Blu Moon Ace (6-1): Claimed for $30k out of last start by 52% winning trainer in ’17; two back had troubled trip when in w/ #2 & #3 
  3. #2 – Vorticity (5-2): Chased graded stakes winner Divining Rod in vain at Lrl; Fasig-Tipton Sales grad seeks “real Maryland money”

Race 10

  1. #9 – Wazzala (5-2): Lightbulb came on after taking 8 tries to get first win, then came right back making short work of $5kN2L
  2. #7 – Cherokee Lightning (6-1): Been busy racing on the synthetic surface of Pid 7x in last 3 months; faced better when she was on dirt
  3. #4 – Flint Hill (8-1): Only class dropper from a dirt race in this event was 5-wide in latest; will need pace help to unleash closing kick

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday August 25th at Timonium had 5 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.40 (3rd race), $6.80 (6th), $14.40 (7th), $3.60 (8th) and $8.00 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R8-R9 $2 DOUBLE paid $12.40 (cost: $8) and the R6-R9 $0.50 Pick-4 paid $88.00 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 254 for 921 (27.58%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (97: 33-22-15; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Hercatwillfoolu (6th race: 5-2 M/L; 2-1 PT) stumbled at the break, regrouped and edged up four wide into the far turn, closed in under repeated right handed rousing nearing the sixteenth pole, vied outside SOUPER ECHO and got up late by a neck and returned $6.80 to WIN, $3.40 to PLACE and $3.00 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (85: 13-10-12; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Dear Charlotte (4th race: 12-1 M/L; 9-1 PT) unhurried early, saved some ground into the lane, eased out and had late action between horses to finish 7th just two-lengths behind the winner.