The GQ Approach – Laurel May 7

by | May 7, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 1:10pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

[su_box title=”Today’s Carryovers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $10,895
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: $3,596[/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]
[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 8 / #6 – Miss Swisher (4-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 5 / #7 – Swamp Chilli (10-1)[/su_box]
[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]
  • Race 1: $2 DOUBLE  2, 4  w/ 3, 5, 8 ($12)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  6, 7, 8 w/ 4, 7, 9  w/ 3, 5, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 5: $0.20 Pick-6  3, 5, 7 w/ 1, 5, 9 w/ 4, 6, 13 w/ 1, 3, 6 w/ 2, 3, 7 w/ 4, 5 10 ($145.80)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-5  1, 5, 9 w/ 6, 13 w/ 3, 6 w/ 2, 3, 7 w/ 4, 5 ($36)
  • Race 9: $2 Double  2, 3, 7 w/ 4, 5, 10 ($18)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, high in the upper 50s
  • Scheduled Turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST Turf: GOOD

CLOSING DAY at LAUREL – MANDATORY PAYOUTS on Late Pick-5 and Rainbow Pick-6

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Leapt (9-2): Isn’t this what Thunder Snow did shortly after exiting the Derby Starting Gate? WTF was that?! Well this filly can leap to the early lead and get her second career win
  2. #4 – Northern Eclipse (5-2): Morning works seem to indicate this mare have been re-trained by K. Cartagena during her 5-month layoff to become a sprinter
  3. #9 – Lady Forest (10-1): Another one coming off a 10-month vacation; like the work tab leading up to comeback and realistic placement  

Race 2

  1. #3 – Vegas Appeal (9-2): Just one of two class droppers in this field of eight; took some action in debut w/ $25kMCL but couldn’t keep up with those fractions which were more than a full second faster than the others in here have been struggling to compete in
  2. #5 – Impressive Way (7-2): Should relish the additional furlong; showed nice, late interest at this level when fourth by less than 3-lengths at this level
  3. #8 – Zimbabwe (2-1): Trainer G. Motion graciously rid himself of this 0 for 9 gelding after doing all he could to get to the Winners’ Circle; this 4-year-old appears to lack the will to win be maybe second time blinkers will be the charm         

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – The Stranger (4-1): Will take a chance on this FTS by U S Ranger who fired a bullet in his final prep for debut; this Triple Crown series nominee obviously hasn’t showed brilliance in the A.M. to even give it a go in MSW?
  2. #6 – Loconotion (8-5): Early speed in all three career starts but tired in only two on dirt while staying on for runner-up on turf which came in first start after 6-month layoff
  3. #8 – Radial Flyer (9-2): After 121 career starts, at GP and Aqu while his best finish was one third place showing, needed to be shipped to Lrl for more class relief             
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Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Leroy Brown (4-1): House Horse ridden by HOF E. Prado typically adds up to a trip to the Winners’ Circle; additional 1/16th will be the difference
  2. #9 – Feel Proud (7-2): Broke maiden in most recent effort but that was on dirt after three straight turf tries; adding blinkers may have done the trick so we’ll stick with him to make it two in a row
  3. #4 – Resident Scholar (12-1): Showed some life on the turf last Fall when dropped in for $25kMCL tag; bug boy C. Carrasco handles himself well on the turf   

 

Race 5

  1. #7 – Swamp Chilli (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Only 4-year-old in this $16kMCL with a group of 3-year-olds; best race of the 4 he’s run was the only one on dirt whose speed figure matches up well in here; getting S. Russell in the irons should help
  2. #3 – Spin Move (5-2): Outrun in his debut last July when sent off 5-2 second choice; been off since and got the ultimate equipment change… gelded; series of 5 works nicely spaced leading up to today
  3. #5 – Desert Frontier (3-1): Much the second best when dropped to this level in latest; looked like a winner at the eighth pole but couldn’t hold off winner                

 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Jensen (4-1): Could be a smart claim by trainer L. Gaudet (25% first race after claim); just out of jail this gelding should get a nice stalking trip to get first run on Closers in catching the Early Speed types
  2. #1 – Tambourin (8-1): Love the turf sprint inn first race since late December; had to have been a freshener for the stretch out to two turns as he’s raced in all previous turf starts
  3. #5 – Forever Bernardini (10-1): Finally got back on turf in latest and broken thru the N2L condition; strong enough to improve off that effort to threaten to make it two in a row 

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #4 – Holiday Blues (6-1): Though 0 for 3 on the turf with 2 SHOW finishes, she’s earned the highest BRIS turf speed figure (81) in this assembled group
  2.  #6 – Le Weekend (3-1): Speed 3-year-old gives turf a try after runner-up v. state-bred/sired N1X allowance group when first time v. winners; not specifically bred for the turf but should handle it
  3. #13 – Lucky in Malibu (6-1): Needs one defection to draw in from AE List; past turf tries were all v. maidens but had no problem competing recently in minor stakes restricted to 3-year-olds  

Race 8

  1. #6 – Miss Swisher (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Just recently sent to trainer K. Magee after claimed two back for $16k at Aqu in N2L, finishing third; was no match v. $40kN2L when still in jail at Aqu; T. McCarthy takes mount who is 25% w/ Magee starters this meet
  2. #3 – Picnic Party (3-1): Threat to go gate-to-wire as she got caught up in speed duel in latest in mud but held on for runner-up spot
  3. #1 – Love You Back (7-2): Failed miserably as 4-5 favorite in Lrl debut after decent efforts in The Big Easy (aka FG); trainer L. Jones takes the blinkers off and gives A. Castrenze the call instead of M. Murrill

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Not a Chance (5-1): That’s what I was hearing the last few days from media colleagues at CD about my Derby pick (Hence); let’s hope for better from this guy 5 and #9)who should get a perfect stalking trip right behind the early speedsters
  2. #3 – Jockamo’s Song (5-2): Nice 3 for 5 record on turf at this distance but all were against LA-breds; BRIS#s still indicate he can compete in open company up here
  3. #2 – Lanier (8-1): 1 for 1 on grass albeit v. lesser but the speed figure (88) was good enough to indicate with just a tad bit improvement he’ll be in the mix

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Smash and Dash (4-1): Trainer M. Eppler takes over conditioning from a 12% Tam-based trainer; adds blinkers, gelded since latest effort and a bullet work in mud and jock upgrade to H. Karamanos can add up to graduation day 
  2. #4 – Quick Buy (12-1): MD-bred, gelded son of Lemon Drop Kid out of a Devil’s Bag mare fetched $55k at the Kee Sept. ’15 yearling sale; distance will be no problem
  3. #10 – Pik Em (5-1): Away since last Sept. showing no interest on the turf when sent off 3-1 earned him an appointing with the Vet to be gelded; adds blinkers and drops in for $25k tag       

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • NOTE: Thanks to my ne’er do well cousin QG for providing Saturday’s picks and analysis while I had my hands full at Churchill Downs covering the Kentucky Derby. Kudos to QG for scoring with his BEST BET ($4.80) in spite of 7 of his other 9 top picks having “Second-it is”. Still a job well done. Below recaps GQ’s Friday races…
  • On Thursday May 4th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $11.60 (1st race), $7.00 (2nd), $3.20 (4th), $3.80 (5th), $3.80 (8th) and $4.80 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $67.60 (cost: $12) and the R8-R9 $2 DOUBLE for $13.60 (cost: $12). Top Selections in 2017 are 123 for 464 (26.21%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (51: 16-11-11; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Big Slick (4th race: 9-2 M/L; 9-2 PT) saved ground on the turn, eased out in upper stretch and closed gamely outside of the winner to come up a nose short and returned $4.80 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (46: 5-6-8; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) All Fired Up (8th race: 12-1 M/L; 15-1 PT) Trailed the entire race to finish a well beaten 8th.