The GQ Approach – Laurel May 6

by | May 6, 2017 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 1:10pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

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  • Rainbow Pick 6: $9,404
  • Super High 5: $375
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover [/su_box]
[su_box title=”GQ’s Handicapping Tip of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”][stray-random][/su_box]

[su_box title=”Best Bet of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]Race 9 / #6 – Loki’s Vengeance (2-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Longshot Play of the Day” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”] Race 5 / #9 – Hopehard (15-1)[/su_box]

[su_box title=”Multi-race Wagers” style=”glass” box_color=”#66ADCC”]

  • Race 8: $0.50 Pick-3  6, 10 w/ 6 w/ 2, 4, 10 ($3)
  • Race 11: $2 Double  2, 7, 11 w/ 7, 9 ($12)

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Weather: Rain showers early, high in the upper 50s
  • Scheduled Turf races: 1st, 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions… Main: MUDDY  Turf: GOOD

Race 1

  1. #9 – Barney Rebel (9-2): Trainer Eppler has two logical contenders in here, legs go-to rider Karamanos up on this one; one-mile work two weeks back suggests she’s serious about this one
  2. #6 – Qeyaas (10-1): First time trainer Davidovich has made the long trek east from Mahoning to central Maryland; attracts top-quality local rider Pimentel   
  3. #10 – Top Prospect (5-1): The other Eppler runner — this one was put up via DQ against slightly lesser last out, though the foul was not committed against him

Race 2

  1. #4 – No Distortion (8-1): Useful return to the races when sixth after tiring late; connections know a good horse when they see one, have handled this guy like one, and likely lively pace scenario could play to this one’s favor   
  2. #3 – Seymourdini (3-5): Rice hitting at 50 percent at the track, and this guy couldn’t have been more impressive in last – but will he get cooked up front by #6 Colonel Sharp?
  3. #5 – Stolen Love (10-1): Gonzalez barn hitting on all cylinders at the meet; veteran owns four wins at the trip       

Race 3 

  1. #4 – Ticker Tape Parade (5-2): Proctor trainee makes appropriate drop; two dirt tries produced four next-out winners, and added ground doesn’t figure a problem
  2. #7 – Little Tricks (6-1): Trainer Magee 30 percent first off the claim in MCL company; like that he keeps this guy at the same level though out of jail          
  3. #6 – Celtic Ruler (3-1): Stretch-out may help this Louis Quatorze gelding, who’s been second three straight against similar; repeated failures make expected short odds none too enticing
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Race 4 is scheduled for the TURF

  1. #5 – Rhythm Blues (5-1): Grasping at straws? Maybe – but runner has kept generally better company on the grass than this, though turf record remains unsullied by victory
  2. #2 – Mr. Benz (5-2): Jenkins trainee in November running an indifferent fourth against better; finds lowest level yet, which could be the answer; starting season with one-mile trip a challenge
  3. #8 – Brilliant Choice (20-1): Sire Brilliant Speed won over $1 million on turf and synthetic, and his offspring are hitting at 20 percent in turf starts; first time on the green for otherwise undistinguished runner   

Race 5 is scheduled for the TURF

  1. #9 – Hopehard (15-1): Apt name for this longshot; messy start in last compromised any chance he had, which wasn’t much in the face of local rocket ship Billy the Bull; might be lone speed here and finds easier spot         
  2. #6 – Political Farce (4-1): Not inclined to judge last out — first of ’17 — too harshly; has competed with the likes of these and should move forward off that
  3. #11 – Merry’s Honor (10-1): Recent form’s not promising but this PA-bred stakes winner has back class to burn             

Race 6 

  1. #7 – No Love Lost (10-1): This one’s sibs are 0-for-17 on the turf, making grassy bow a bit of a surprise; Not for Love filly was green in the lane but didn’t run badly, has a chance to move forward here
  2. #3 – Sneaky Betty (9-5): Hasn’t been overly impressive, but look who won her last two: G1 winner Dancing Rags and G2 winner Tequilita; hard to overstate the class relief she’s getting here
  3. #1 – Midday Prayer (2-1): Cutback to sprint distance and return to claiming company ought to help   

Race 7 is scheduled for the TURF

  1. #4 – Andrasta (9-2): Both of runner’s wins came around two turns; useful return to the races when third against better in ’17 debut sprint, and a step forward here would make her a winner
  2. #2 – Tracy Island (12-1): Return to route distance won’t hurt this runner’s chances; better efforts compete here; note she was less than two behind choice #4 two back
  3. #6 – Zippity Gal (5-1): Lightly raced City Zip filly already has two wins for two different trainers; can make it three of each here  

Race 8 is scheduled for the TURF 

  1. #10 – Dorothyfromdublin (8-1): Runner gave credible accounting of herself as a 2yo, has been away since October; got legged up for return to racing in South Carolina for a barn that can get ’em to fire off the bench
  2. #6 – Kept (9-2): You can’t fault this gal’s recent tries sprinting; one of six to run back from last won next out
  3. #3 – How (5-2): It’s always something with this Galileo filly, who finds trouble everywhere — the talent is there, but that’s an inauspicious quality in a turf sprinter

Race 9 

  1. #6 – Loki’s Vengeance (2-1): Just about any check here pushes this one past $500k earnings; has tactical ability to lead or stalk, depending on what develops; presence of NY bug boy to ride a bit of a surprise
  2. #3 – Esposito (10-1): Followed up possibly useful return to races with bullet half-mile 4/22; class relief should help and this guy flashed talent in early career efforts
  3. #4 – Aimed (5-1): Trappe Shot colt won two straight before apparent injury; has been working steadily the last month, and trainer Goldberg hits at 22 percent off long layoffs

Race 10 is scheduled for TURF

  1. #10 – Versed (5-1): Made first turf try a winning one, and runner-up won next out against better; likely to find a good trip outside other speed types
  2. #4 – Summer Spice (3-1): Stidham trainee burned a lot of good efforts before getting maiden score, has a shot at two straight here; not sure there’s as much speed as he’d like but should be rolling late
  3. #2 – My Own Lane (15-1): Expect this one to pick GRM spot over this – but love the Morris claim-back after losing this runner and then making first start not for a tag

Race 11 is scheduled for TURF

  1. #11 – Sandy’z Slew (2-1): NY shipper has been keeping better company than this and has demonstrated ability to fire off the bench in a field full of question marks
  2. #7 – Oak Bluffs (9-2): Seven-year-old opened campaign in style with a score against optional claiming/N2X types — second straight win and sixth straight in the exacta; old-timer and Cintron in the irons know where the wire is
  3. #2 – Cyclogenesis (3-1): Nearly two years since this Stormy Atlantic gelding won a race, but he sure has seen some solid runners in the meantime; lone prior trip to LRL netted impressive win in ’14 LRL Futurity

Race 12

  1. #7 – Fifties Music (8-1): Trainer Decker’s had some recent success with new arrivals to the barn; runner’s only try at the trip yielded his only win
  2. #9 – Don’t Be Scared (5-2): Not sold that shortening up is the right answer for Lion Hearted gelding, but improving form puts him right there
  3. #6 – Stilburnin (2-1): Other half of an uncoupled entry for trainer Magee with #9; arrives in his barn, coming north in search of greener pastures, easier company

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • NOTE: GQ is on assignment at Churchill Downs today covering the Kentucky Derby. We’ll return to your regularly scheduled programming Sunday. In the meantime, his ne’er do well cousin QG is here to mislead.
  • On Thursday May 4th at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $8.60 (1st race), $3.60 (3rd), $11.80 (7th), $4.80 (8th). Top Selections in 2017 are 121 for 455 (26.31%). In 2016, Top Selections were 304 for 1,213 (25.02%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (51: 16-11-11; in 2016 127: 31-29-19) Never Stop Looking (4th race: 7-2 M/L; 7-2 PT) runner-up  and returned $4.00 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (45: 5-6-8; in 2016 124: 13-13-16) Wolfie (3rd race: 10-1 M/L; 15-1 PT) sped to the early lead, hugged the inner rail and gave way the final furlong to finish 7th.