The GQ Approach – Laurel November 28

by | Nov 28, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday throughout 2016; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5. 

 

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,223.69
  • Super High 5: $1,148.01
  • Late Pick 5: $9,785.27

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 5 / #7 – Stormin Babe (5-2)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 8  / #11 – Shinobi (12-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1: $2 Double 4, 8, 9 w/ 3  ($6)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  2, 9, 10  w/ 3  w/ 1, 2, 7, 11  ($6)
  • Race 5: $0.50 Pick-5  1, 7  w/ 4, 9  w/  1, 2, 8  w/ 1, 7, 11  w/ 3, 6 ($36)
  • Race 8: $2 Double 1, 7, 11  w/ 3, 4, 6  ($18)

 

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 5 (1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th)
  • Weather: Partly Sunny, highs in the low 50’s
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

 

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Svindahl (6-1): 5 y.o. gelding has the back class to step back up after H. McMahon claim for $5k when run @ The Big T, just second start on dirt; being protected is a positive sign
  2. #8 – The Great Provider (3-1): Has been providing too many Place and Show efforts to be the ML or PT favorite as he hasn’t visited the Winners’ Circle in over a year; best of a poor lot?
  3. #4 – Jo Way Java (15-1): Been competing at this level most of the year w/ mixed results; should get at least 20-1 in here; early speed going one mile last start could prove to have been an unintended tactic change coming back to sprints

 

Race 2

  1. #3 – Set to Dance (6-5): Royally bred 3 y.o. daughter of Distorted Humor was second best in debut though 11 behind winner @ Bel; “house horse” adds Lasix and blinkers while stretching out
  2. #8 – Cantate Domino (10-1): Tried turf route in third start and was fourth behind a couple next out winners; returns to dirt where she was runner-up in second start way back in January
  3. #5 – Street Heiress (6-1): Had two starts last Spring locally but was quite “green”, so trainer T. Keefe took a step back, gave her time to mature and might be ready to graduate     

 

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #9 – Running Tide (6-1): Second start w/ blinkers and cuts back in distance; best finish (3rd) came in debut at this 5½f distance
  2. #2 – Vizi Girl (7-2): Toss most recent start when in v. boys; if another drop in class should give her edge over most others in here 
  3. #10 – Carrauntoohil (8-1): Third start after 4 month layoff; first time on turf sprinting but two back was third sprinting on a sealed track when event was taken off turf            

 

Race 4

  1.  #3 – Double Whammy (8-5): Came back after layoff looking like the “Claim of the Year” candidate he was back in late winter and early spring; continues to take advantage of Starter $5k condition
  2.  #6 – No Brakes (6-1): This amazing 11 y.o. gelding makes his 108th career start; was 7 behind top pick in latest after winning at this level two back
  3. #9 – Fran’s Buckaroo (15-1): Runner-up by half-length in latest at this same condition and distance; reclaimed by D. Houghton 3 back, who earlier this year had this gelding winning for $15k

 

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Stormin Babe (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Just missed by a nose in latest/second career start; hoping the third time is a charm as there was improvement from debut to second effort
  2.  #1 – Discreet Deceit (9-2): Adds blinkers for fourth career start; two runner-up efforts sprinting on turf to start career then tried dirt going 6f, getting lead late only to succumb to two foes
  3. #2 – Perfect Party Girl (7-2): Her early speed has only been able to carry her 5 furlongs in her last 3 turf sprints… as she matures she’ll eventually build stamina to get at least 5½… maybe today
  4. #11 – Rockin (9-2): Was rollin’ late in debut on dirt to be a distant runner-up when 2-1 Post Time second choice @ Del; adds Lasix in hopes of earning diploma today            

 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Barrel of Love (9-2): Finished 5½ behind Phlash Phelps on MD Million Day and just 3¼ back in Lrl Dash two back when 112-1; jock upgrade to F. Boyce
  2. #9 – Swellelegent (7-2): Caught a fairly weak OC$16k group in most recent start, winning rather easily when dropped to lowest level in 13 race career; enough early speed in here to catch late
  3. #1 – Barney Rebel (10-1): This 8 y.o. has never run on Lasix and has gotten better this year after trainer J. Delozier III claimed him for $4,000 in Jan.; always in the mix late but seems to run out of real estate    

 

Race 7

  1. #1 – Holiday Magician (5-1): Ran out of real estate in latest try to earn diploma when runner-up going 5½ furlongs; just a question on whether she’s matured since then to put it all together
  2. #2 – La La Bamba (5-1): Has finished right behind top pick in her last two when adding blinkers; trainer L. Gaudet has been wearing out a path to the Winners’ Circle recently, so any improvement could make her a winner
  3. #8 – Faze the Nation (9-2): Not a bad effort versus winners in MD Million Lassie when coming off 4 month layoff; should find this group of maidens easier to handle; tough assignment from rail   

 

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Shinobi (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ One of the most constant runners in this contest as far as turf Brisnet#s, the difference today is this deep closer gets added distance; third by a neck @ Sar in only previous race going 9 furlongs
  2.  #7 – D’avignon (8-1): Made a nice late run in first race in over a year just 2 weeks ago; should like added distance as he was runner-up going 1¼ miles in final race across the pond
  3.  #1 – Datt Melody (6-1): Failed as Post Time favorite in first start after short layoff but may have needed race? Gets hottest riding jock at Lrl right now to try and turn the tables on foes in here

 

Race 9

  1. #3 – Cho Time (6-1): Had no business trying to go two turns in latest start; back to sprinting where long-in-the-tooth gelding has been successful this year
  2. #6 – Magna Warrior (9-2): Finally broke through with a victory for first time since being claimed for $10k @ SA in June; had to be dropped to bottom of the Lrl barrel to get “W”
  3. #4 – Dr. Bolt (20-1): Might be a stretch but runs here under Waiver Claiming provision as he hasn’t raced since getting claimed in April; connections must think he’s doing well enough that they don’t want to lose him   

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday November 27th at Laurel had 4 winners from the 9 race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $6.00 (3rd race), $7.40 (4th), $6.00 (5th) and $5.60 (9th). Of the suggested Multi-race wagers hit R3-R5 for $19.10 (cost: $13.50). Year-to-date Top Selections are 274 for 1,087 (25.21%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (114: 29-24-16) Weatherurnot (5th race: 2-1 M/L; 7-5 PT) set the pace in the two path and weakened in the drive only be good enough for the runner-up spot to return $3.00 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (111: 11-13-16) My Magician (8th race: 15-1 M/L; 14-1 PT) stalked the pace while saving ground, eased out for the drive, chased past the furlong grounds and gave way grudgingly losing the Show purse in the final stride. LONGHSOT PLAY ROI = $0.92 ($130.40 / 111).